Tag Archive: newsletter

The Failure of a Gold Refinery, Report 12 Nov 2018

2018-11-13

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2018-11-13

Gold and Silver Price
So this happened: Republic Metals, a gold refiner, filed bankruptcy on November 2. The company had found a discrepancy in its inventory of around $90 million, while preparing its financial statements. We are not going to point the Finger of Blame at Republic or its management, as we do not know if this was honest error or theft.

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FX Daily, November 13: Weak Turn-Around Tuesday

2018-11-13

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2018-11-13

Overview:  The US dollar has a heavier bias against most of the major and emerging markets currencies, but the pullback is shallow, and the greenback's underlying strength is still evident.  Asian equities were mixed.  Concern that Apple may be reducing orders weighed on suppliers, but news that China and US trade talks are resuming boosted sentiment, allowing Chinese stocks to recover helped lift the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in October 2018: +2.3 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

2018-11-13

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2018-11-13

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, October 2018
The Producer and Import Price Index increased in October 2018 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 103.4 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products, petroleum and natural gas. Compared with October 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 2.3%.

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Switzerland signs up to ‘Paris Call’ for a safer internet

2018-11-13

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2018-11-13

In Paris on Monday, several hundred governments and tech companies – and Switzerland – signed a new charter for trust and security online. In the so-called ‘Paris Call’, launched by French President Macron at the UNESCO Internet Governance Forum in Paris, signatories pledged to support “an open, safe, stable, accessible, and peaceful cyberspace” where international law applies, and individual rights are protected.

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Cool Video: Fox Biz TV Broad Economic Discussion

2018-11-13

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2018-11-13

I joined Charles Payne on Fox Business TV for a broad economic discussion today.  Payne, like many, are concerned that the Fed continues to tighten and worries this is going to end the business cycle.  He also argued that the strong dollar was a significant threat of US multinational earnings.

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FX Daily, November 12: Sterling’s Losses Lead Dollar Rally

2018-11-12

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2018-11-12

Overview: The US dollar is enjoying broad gains against most major and emerging market currencies. Sterling, dragged down by Brexit concerns, is leading the way. With today's losses, sterling has shed nearly 3.7 cents over the last four sessions. The euro, for its part, is at a new 17-month low (~$1.1250). 

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Swiss National Bank Unexpectedly Sold US Stocks In Q3, Dumping Over 1 Million Apple Shares

2018-11-12

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2018-11-12

Value of SNB US Stock Holdings 2014-2018
The SNB’s latest 13-F form filings (yes, the Swiss central bank lists its US equity holdings like the hedge fund that it is) to the SEC were released this week. And, like every other quarter, we take a closer look to see what stocks the world's only hedge fund central bank that prints money out of thin air bought, and on rare occasions, sold. This was one of those rare quarters.

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Euro area’s fiscal policy to turn supportive of growth next year

2018-11-12

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2018-11-12

Euro Area: Fiscal Stance chart
Modest fiscal easing could help counter mounting external risks and slowing growth indicators.Euro area member states have all submitted their 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans (DBP) to the European Commission (EC) by now. These show that, collectively and based on EU Commission’s autumn forecasts, the euro area’s fiscal stance1 will turn supportive in 2019, although it varies significantly from one country to the next.

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Study finds ‘worrying’ suicide rates among Swiss farmers

2018-11-12

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2018-11-12

The suicide rate among Swiss farmers is almost 40% higher than the average for men in rural areas, a study has found. The main causes are fears about the future and financial worries. A survey by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF), reported in the SonntagsZeitung, found that between 1991 and 2014, 447 Swiss farmers took their lives. 

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FX Weekly Preview: DOTS in the Week Ahead: Divergence, Oil, Trade and Stocks

2018-11-12

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2018-11-12

The Federal Reserve's confidence in the economy and its need to continue to gradually increase interest rates stands in sharp contrast to most of the other major central banks. The European Central Bank will finish its asset purchases at the end of the year, but it is in no position to begin to normalize interest rates. Indeed, the risk is that it may feel compelled to off another Targeted Long-Term Repo, which would, in effect, allow the borrowers...

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Understanding the Global Recession of 2019

2018-11-12

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2018-11-12

Effective Federal Funds Rate 1960-2018
Isn't it obvious that repeating the policies of 2009 won't be enough to save the system from a long-delayed reset? 2019 is shaping up to be the year in which all the policies that worked in the past will no longer work. As we all know, the Global Financial Meltdown / recession of 2008-09 was halted by the coordinated policies of the major central banks, which lowered interest rates to near-zero, bought trillions of dollars of bonds and iffy assets...

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PKB private bank officials under investigation for fiscal fraud

2018-11-11

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2018-11-11

Eighteen managers at the Swiss private bank PKB Privatbank are being investigated in Italy for fiscal fraud and money laundering, according to an Italian prosecutor. The Milan Public Prosecutor's Office, led by Francesco Greco, is carrying out the investigation against the officials, who are residents in Italy where PKB owns the Italian private bank Cassa Lombarda.

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The Future is Already Here–It is Just Not Evenly Distributed

2018-11-11

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2018-11-11

When William Gibson would say that "the future is already here-it is just not evenly distributed," he was referring to how wealth and location determine one's access to technological advances (the future). Yet it equally can apply to the US-Chinese relationship.

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UBS prepares to fight US mortgage-backed securities lawsuit

2018-11-10

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2018-11-10

UBS Group AG, Switzerland’s largest bank, says it will “vigorously” contest a United States Department of Justice lawsuit concerning mortgage-backed securities it sold in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis. In a statement issued on Wednesday, UBS said it had been advised that the DOJ intends to file a civil complaint as early as Thursday “related to UBS's issuance, underwriting and sale of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS)...

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Fed Sticks To Script, Enjoys the Sweet Spot

2018-11-10

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2018-11-10

The Federal Reserve kept policy on hold, and its sparse statement gave little clue as to what it makes of the pressures in the money markets or the weakness in the housing market.  The effective Fed funds rate is bumping against the cap provided by the interest rate on reserves.  Some repo rates, like SOFR (the intended replacement for LIBOR), have on occasion poked above what should be the ceiling.

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FX Daily, November 09: Greenback Stabilizes at Higher Levels

2018-11-09

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2018-11-09

The US dollar's gains scored in the wake of the Fed's signal that will continue on course to gradually hike rates have been extended. Most emerging market currencies are lower as well.  Equity markets are heavy.  Bond yields in Europe and US are a little lower, with the exception of Italian bonds. 

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Cryptoasset start-up backed by Swiss banking heavyweights

2018-11-09

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2018-11-09

Some of the doyens of the Swiss financial industry, including former Swiss National Bank president Philipp Hildebrand and ex-UBS CEO Peter Wuffli, have joined the cryptoasset revolution with new financial services operator Sygnum. The Swiss-Singapore enterprise announced itself suddenly on Thursday after operating in stealth mode for months.

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Why Are so Few Americans Able to Get Ahead?

2018-11-09

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2018-11-09

Real Median Household Income in the U.S. 1990-2018
Our entire economy is characterized by cartel rentier skims, central-bank goosed asset bubbles and stagnating earned income for the bottom 90%. Despite the rah-rah about the "ownership society" and the best economy ever, the sobering reality is very few Americans are able to get ahead, i.e. build real financial security via meaningful, secure assets which can be passed on to their children.

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Sterling hits highest buying level against Swiss Franc since August

2018-11-08

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2018-11-08

The Pound has made good gains against the Swiss Franc over the course of November so far, hitting the highest level we have seen since August and smashing through the 1.30 level. Sterling strength: Rumours of Brexit deal agreement lead to Sterling boost The main reasons behind the rise in value of Sterling is due to positive vibes surrounding Brexit.

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Harmful Modern Myths And Legends

2018-11-08

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2018-11-08

Germany Real GDP, Q3 2018
Loreley Rock near Sankt Goarshausen sits at a narrow curve on the Rhine River in Germany. The shape of the bluff produces a faint echo in the wind, supposedly the last whispers of a beautiful maiden who threw herself from it in despair once spurned by her paramour. She was transformed into a siren, legend says, a tantalizing wail which cries out and lures fishermen and tradesmen on the great river to their death.

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