Tag Archive: newsletter

Chinese economic disruption hits Swiss supply chains

2020-03-05

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2020-03-05

China’s sharp contraction in economic activity over the past month due to the coronavirus epidemic is sending shockwaves across the globe. Switzerland is one of the top ten countries exposed to Chinese supply disruptions, a United Nations report reveals.

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The Greenspan Moon Cult

2020-03-05

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2020-03-05

US Treasury Curve, 2007-2019
Taking another look at what I wrote about repo and the latest developments yesterday, it may be worthwhile to spend some additional time on the “why” as it pertains to so much determined official blindness, an unshakeable devotion to otherwise easily explained lunar events.

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Governments Are Using the Coronavirus to Distract From Their Own Failures

2020-03-05

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2020-03-05

The Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Global Cases Monitor shows that the mortality rate of the epidemic is very low. At the writing of this article,1 there have been 92,818 cases, 3,195 deaths, and 48,201 recoveries. It is normal for the media to focus on the first two figures, but I think that it is important to remember the last one. The recovered figure is more than ten times the deceased one.

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Christine Lagarde’s New Vision for the ECB

2020-03-05

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2020-03-05

On December 12, Christine Lagarde introduced her goals and vision in her first rate-setting meeting as the new president of the European Central Bank (ECB). On the actual policy front, there were no surprises. She remained committed to the path set by her predecessor, Mario Draghi, and kept the current monetary stimulus unchanged.

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Updated Democratic Primary Timeline

2020-03-05

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2020-03-05

RCP Betting Average
Super Tuesday has come and gone. Bloomberg has suspended his campaign after an extremely poor showing, and Warren is expected to follow suit soon. Here is our updated take on the likely Democratic candidate.

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Ich kaufe Schnäppchen ein – Wenn andere Hamstern und in Panik verfallen ??

2020-03-05

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2020-03-05

Wenn andere hamstern und Panik schieben, bewahren wir die Ruhe und halten an unserer Anlagestrategie fest. Für mich war es eigentlich nie ein Thema Markettiming zu betreiben, ich möchte regelmässig mein Geld an der Börse investieren. Reich durch einen Crash oder KorrekturWährend andere gelähmt sind und stetig abwarten bis der Boden erreicht ist, gehen viele Gelegenheiten ungenutzt.

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FX Daily, March 4: Equities Trade Higher, While Yields Continue to Fall

2020-03-04

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2020-03-04

Overview:  The G7 delivered up a nothing burger than was shortly followed by a 50 bp Fed cut.  The equity market seemed to enjoy it briefly and extended Monday's dramatic gains, before falling out of bed.  The S&P 500 lost about 2.2%, while the Dow Industrial slumped 3%, but shortly after the markets closed, equities began recovering, and the recovery carried over to the Asia Pacific region and Europe.

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Socialism and Gold

2020-03-04

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2020-03-04

Most people assume that the central bank prints money when it buys bonds. They further assume that this increase in the quantity of money causes an increase in the general price level. And, this leads them to assume that the value of the money is 1 / P (P is the general price level). Therefore, when the central bank prints money to buy bonds, it is diluting the value of the money held by everyone—in proportion to the amount printed divided by the...

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Red Bull profits from Swiss sugar subsidies

2020-03-04

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2020-03-04

The makers of sweet products benefit from the federal subsidies paid to sugar beet farmers in Switzerland. The price of sugar in Switzerland has been on the decline for years. As a result, 400 farmers have quit producing it in recent years. Sugar beet producers receive annual subsidies amounting to CHF36 million ($38 million).

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Will CHF/GBP Be a Good Currency Pair for Investment in the Future?

2020-03-04

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2020-03-04

Swiss Franc Currency Forecast
Trade between the UK and Switzerland is robust these days and it’s not going to get any worse for a long time. Even with the economic turmoil resulting from Brexit, the trade between these two countries was set to stay strong due to the special deal signed by them in 2019. As the situation stands now, trade agreements are solid, so these business relationships should only strengthen.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in February 2020: -0.1 percent YoY, +0.1 percent MoM

2020-03-04

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2020-03-04

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, February 2020
04.03.2020 - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1% in February 2020 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.6 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.1% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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The Fed Slashes Rates as Powell Declares Economy “Strong”

2020-03-04

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2020-03-04

Federal Funds Target Rate Since 1992
The Federal Reserve this morning slashed the target federal funds rate by 0.5 percent today. According to CNBC: The Federal Reserve moved to an enact an emergency interest rate cut after officials saw the coronavirus having a material impact on the economic outlook, Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday.

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A Day For Rate Cuts

2020-03-04

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2020-03-04

Total Credit Market, 1980-2015
Well, that wasn’t he had in mind. The whole point of a rate cut, any rate cut let alone an emergency fifty, is to signal especially the stock market that the Fed is in the business of…something. The public has been led, by and large, to assume that something good happens when the Fed Chair shows up on TV.

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Did Covid-19 Just Pop All the Global Financial Bubbles?

2020-03-04

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2020-03-04

All Sectors Debt Securities and loans, 1960-2019
Once confidence and certainty are lost, the willingness to expand debt and leverage collapses. Even though the first-order effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are still impossible to predict, it's already possible to ask: did the pandemic pop all the global financial bubbles? The reason we can ask this question is the entire bull mania of the 21st century has been based on a permanently high rate of expansion of leverage and debt.

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March Monthly

2020-03-03

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2020-03-03

The new coronavirus that originated in China, apparently first detected in December, emerged on the world's stage in January and continues to dominate the investment climate. There are two critical questions for investors and businesses whose answers will likely be clearer in the first part of March. First, will Covid-19 be contained for the most part by the end of Q1? 

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Swiss National Bank to distribute 4 billion francs of profit

2020-03-03

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2020-03-03

In 2019, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) made a profit of around CHF 49 billion. These profits came mainly from the rising value of the assets on the bank’s balance sheet. In 2019, the value of its holdings of foreign currency and gold rose substantially. When combined with interest, dividend income and gains on shares total profits for the year were CHF 49 billion.

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Silver Backwardation Returns, Gold and Silver Market Report 2 March

2020-03-02

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2020-03-02

Silver Spot Price Bid-Offer Spread
The big news this week was the drop in the prices of the metals (though we believe that it is the dollar which is going up), $57 and $1.81 respectively. Of course, when the price drops the injured goldbugs come out. We have written the authoritative debunking of the gold and silver price suppression conspiracy here. We provide both the scientific theory and the data.

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FX Daily, March 2: Central Banks’ Words of Assurance have Short Life

2020-03-02

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2020-03-02

Overview: Comments beginning with Powell before the weekend, and BOJ and BOE earlier today promising support have saw equity markets briefly stabilize after last week's dramatic moves. The G7 will hold a teleconference this week, but speculation of a coordinated rate move does not seem particularly likely. Most of the large stock markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied, led by a 3%+ advance in China.

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Potential relief for some Swiss renters

2020-03-02

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2020-03-02

Every three months the rate of interest used to benchmark Swiss rents is reviewed. If it goes down some renters have the right to request a decrease in rent. This time the reference rate fell from 1.50% to 1.25%. The last time it dropped was 2 June 2017 when it fell to 1.5%. The rate is based on the average Swiss mortgage rate over three months.

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SNB Profit in 2019: 48.9 billion (2018: loss of CHF 14.9 billion, 2020 Does not Look Good)

2020-03-02

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2020-03-02

Income Statement for 2019
The increasing volatility of SNB Earnings Annual results are not really definite. Given that the SNB accumulates foreign currencies with interventions, they have huge swings. But the SNB may lose 50 billion in one year and win 60 billion in the next year or vice verse. Good years of the Credit Cycle This trend was … Continue reading »

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