Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Weekly Preview: Three Highlights in the Week Ahead

2019-03-18

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2019-03-18

Three events next week will shape the investment climate. The Federal Reserve meets and will update its forecasts and guidance. The British House of Commons may vote for a third time on the Withdrawal Bill before Prime Minister May heads of the EU Summit to ask for an extension of the UK leaving the EU. The eurozone sees the flash March PMI, with great hope that the green shoots of spring will be evident.

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Brexit update: UK parliament opts for an extension

2019-03-18

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2019-03-18

GBP/USD Exchange Rate 2018-2019
After an eventful week in parliament, the Brexit ball is set to keep rolling as MPs move to extend the 29 March deadline.The British Parliament concluded a series of votes on Brexit this week with an intention to extend the 29 March Brexit deadline. What remains unclear at this point is whether the UK will seek a short (two months) or a longer extension (two years).

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The Coming Crisis the Fed Can’t Fix: Credit Exhaustion

2019-03-18

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2019-03-18

All Sectors, Debt Securities and Loans, Liability Level 1960 - 2018
Having fixed the liquidity crisis of 2008-09 and kept a perversely unequal "recovery" staggering forward for a decade, central banks now believe there is no crisis they can't defeat: Liquidity crisis? Flood the global financial system with liquidity. Interest rates above zero? Create trillions out of thin air and use the "free money" to buy bonds. Mortgage and housing markets shaky?

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US lobbies Switzerland to drop Chinese telecom giant Huawei

2019-03-18

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2019-03-18

The US has expressed concern over the use of Chinese technology in Switzerland, suggesting it may be used for espionage, reports the Sonntagszeitung newspaper. Sonntagszeitung cited the Swiss foreign ministry as saying that the US embassy in Bern had conducted “an exchange of views on this subject at diplomatic level.”

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Swiss agency suspends payments to migration platform

2019-03-17

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2019-03-17

The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) has temporarily suspended payments to a civil society platform on migration issues. Financial conflicts of interest and accusations of pro-migration bias are being investigated. On Thursday, the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA) confirmed that the Swiss Civil Society Platform on Migration and Development will not be receiving any further funds.

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Monthly Macro Chart Review – March (VIDEO)

2019-03-17

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2019-03-17

Alhambra CEO discusses the most important economic reports from the past month.

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Rothschilds To Take Swiss Bank Private In 100 Million Francs Bid 

2019-03-16

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2019-03-16

Benjamin de Rothschild’s family plans to take Swiss Bank Edmond de Rothschild (Suisse) S.A. private as it consolidates and simplifies the bank's legal structure. According to Bloomberg,  Edmond de Rothschild Holding SA will acquire all publicly held Edmond de Rothschild (Suisse) bearer shares at 17,945 francs per share, a 6.7% premium to Tuesday’s closing price, in a deal worth about $100 million.

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Swiss health insurance deductibles to rise automatically

2019-03-16

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2019-03-16

Today, Switzerland’s parliament decided to bring in a system of regular increases in the deductibles for basic compulsory Swiss health insurance, according to the newspaper Le Matin. However, a plan to raise the the minimum deductible to CHF 500 was rejected by a clear majority.

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There at the Beginning

2019-03-16

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2019-03-16

Sometimes it is difficult to gain perspective. That is why it may be difficult to see the forest for the trees. It is as we spend most of our time climbing a mountain: One handhold and foothold at a time. Immediacy and urgency limit our peripheral and forward visions.

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No Sign of Stimulus, Or Global Growth, China’s Economy Sunk By (euro)Dollar

2019-03-16

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2019-03-16

China Industrial Production 1999-2019
Najib Tun Razak was elected as Malaysia’s Prime Minister in early 2009. Taking office that April amid global turmoil and chaos, Najib’s first official visit was to Beijing in early June. His father, also Malaysia’s Prime Minister, had been the first among Asian nations to open formal diplomatic relations with China thirty-five years before.

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Euro slides against the dollar on ECB dovishness

2019-03-15

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2019-03-15

EUR-USD and 10-year Real Rate Differential 2014-2019
The euro has declined further against the dollar but should strengthen over next 12 monthsThe euro fell to a 20-month low against the US dollar following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) March policy meeting, given the revised forward guidance that suggests that the interest rate differential is unlikely to provide much upside to the euro in the next few months.

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Three Swiss cities ranked in world’s top 10 most livable

2019-03-15

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2019-03-15

Mercer’s 2019 livability ranking looks at 231 cities across the globe. Vienna comes top for the tenth year in a row, while Bagdad ranks last. Three Swiss cities are among the global top ten. Zurich is 2nd, Geneva 9th and Basel 10th. Bern, a fourth Swiss city, is not far behind in 14th place.

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FX Daily, March 15: Euro and Yen Volatility Slips to New Five-Year Lows on the Ides of March

2019-03-15

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2019-03-15

Overview: The capital markets are calm ahead of the weekend.  Outside of Australia and Thailand, Asia Pacific equities advanced, while European shares are mostly little changed. The regional benchmarks, like the S&P 500 have recouped last week's losses.  Benchmark 10-year yields are little changed on the day, leaving the US 10-year yield virtually unchanged on the week near 2.62%.

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Pound to Swiss Franc Forecast: GBP/CHF rate hits near 1-year high

2019-03-15

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2019-03-15

It is now very close to the best time to buy Swiss Francs with pounds since May 2018. The stronger pound and a reduced global risk appetite has seen the move on the GBP/CHF pairing. This is presenting a much improved opportunity to buy Swiss Francs with pounds. Any client wishing to buy or sell on this pairing might benefit from a quick review with our team to best understand what is next, and the potential outcomes.

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What Sort of “Democracy” Do We Have If Everyone’s Goal Is Maximizing Their Government Swag?

2019-03-15

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2019-03-15

S-Curve of Centralization
A democratic republic is a government in which power flows from citizens to their elected representatives. The American revolutionaries did not make a big distinction between republic and democracy, for in the context of the late 1700s, the dominant political structure was monarchy, and democracy meant the people have the final say via elections.

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UBS fined and denied right to sponsor IPOs in Hong Kong

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

Swiss bank UBS has been fined HK$375 million (CHF48 million) for irregularities involving three IPOs it had help list on the Hong Kong stock exchange in 2009. Its licence to sponsor IPOs in the city was also suspended for one year.

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FX Daily, March 14: Another UK Vote, but No Closure

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

Overview:  The Brexit drama continues to play out, and the Withdrawal Bill that has been twice defeated is ironically not dead yet. Today's vote, in fact, is predicated on another "meaningful vote" before seeking an extension.  Sterling remains firm near yesterday's highs, which were the best levels since last June.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in February 2019: -0.7 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, February 2019
The Producer and Import Price Index increased in February 2019 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.9 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products. Compared with February 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.7%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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ECB Forward Guidance: the Devil is in the Detail

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

ECB Policy Rates, 2006 - 2019
Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a new long-term refinancing package for banks (called TLTRO-III) and made clear that interest rates would not be raised this year. While these measures were expected, they have come earlier than we thought.

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How States/Empires Collapse in Four Easy Steps

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

S-Curve of Expansion, Maturation, Stagnation and Collapse
There is a grand, majestic tragedy in the inevitable collapse of once-thriving states and empires: it all seemed so permanent at its peak, so godlike in its power, and then slowly but surely, too many grandiose, unrealistic promises were made to too many elites and constituencies, and then as growth decays to stagnation, the only way to maintain the status quo is to appear to meet all the promises by creating money out of thin air, i.e. debauching...

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