Tag Archive: newsletter

Record exports drive up Swiss chocolate sales

2020-03-30

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2020-03-30

The value of Swiss chocolate exports topped CHF1 billion ($1.05 billion) for the first time last year, led by increased demand from Canada, the United States, China, the Middle East and Singapore. Domestic consumption of the delicacy also grew slightly following declining demand in previous years. Sales for Swiss chocolate makers rose 2.2% in 2019 to reach almost CHF1.79 billion.

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USD/CHF hits ten-day lows near 0.9550 as the greenback remains under pressure

2020-03-30

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2020-03-30

USD/CHF Technical outlook
US Dollar Index tumbles to fresh weekly lows at 98.73, down 4% from the top.  US data: Consumer Sentiment Index suffers second-largest monthly decline in March. The USD/CHF pair is falling for the fourth consecutive day amid an ongoing sell-off of the US dollar. The DXY approached earlier on Friday the 100.00 area and recently bottomed at 98.73, the lowest level since March 17. 

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France drops blocks on face mask exports to Switzerland

2020-03-30

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2020-03-30

After Germany, France has lifted restrictions on the delivery of hygienic face masks to Switzerland. Some two million masks are needed each day, according to the Federal Office for Public Health. The French embassy to Switzerland made the announcementexternal link on Saturday, paving the way for two shipments of FFP2 hygienic masks to go ahead from France to Switzerland.

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The New (Forced) Frugality

2020-03-30

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2020-03-30

Personal Saving Rate, 1960-2020
There are only two ways to survive a decline in income and net worth: slash expenses or default on debt. In post-World War II America, the cultural zeitgeist viewed frugality as a choice: permanent economic growth and federal anti-poverty programs steadily reduced the number of people in deep economic hardship (i.e. forced frugality) and raised the living standards of those in hardship to the point that the majority of households could choose to be...

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The Last Thing We Need Right Now Is Bernie’s Proposed Tax on Financial Transactions

2020-03-30

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2020-03-30

When one imagines working on Wall Street, he envisions stock traders scrambling to place buy or sell orders, perhaps even some puts or options. Today’s powerful artificial intelligence tools allow traders to game stock market trading. In some ways, this computer-driven high-frequency trading resembles actual gaming in that it may seem as if one is simulating various trading scenarios.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-03-30

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2020-03-30

Markets continue to digest the implications of the Fed’s bazooka moment last week. The data highlight this week will be March jobs data Friday; key manufacturing sector data will come out earlier in the week. On Friday, BOC delivered an emergency 50 bp rate cut to 0.25% and started QE.

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Coronavirus: Swiss test rate now higher than South Korea’s

2020-03-29

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2020-03-29

This morning, Switzerland’s federal government announced the number of Covid-19 tests conducted so far in Switzerland. South Korea, a nation often cited among those with high test rates, now trails Switzerland on the number per capita tests it has conducted.

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Coronavirus: Why staying home is merely a recommendation in Switzerland

2020-03-29

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2020-03-29

Readers of swissinfo.ch have many questions about the way the Swiss are handling the pandemic. In this first collection of answers, we tackle social distancing measures and how the population is taking them onboard. Switzerland has progressively tightened measures aimed at limiting the spread of Covid-19 across the country.

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It’s Not About Jobless Claims Today, It’s About What Will Hamper Job Growth In A Few Months

2020-03-29

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2020-03-29

Two Labor Stories, 1995-2019
You’ve no doubt heard about the jobless claims number. At an incomprehensible 3.28 million Americans filing for unemployment for the first time, this level far exceeded the wildest expectations as the economic costs of the shutdown continue to come in far more like the worst case. And as bad as 3mm is, the real hidden number is likely much higher.

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More than Half of All US COVID-19 Deaths Occur in Only Four States

2020-03-29

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2020-03-29

Covid-19 Deaths as a % of All US Deaths
As of March 24, nearly 30 percent of all the COVID-19 deaths in the United States have occurred in New York state. Of the 910 deaths reported so far in the US, 271 happened in New York. Washington State was in second place, with 13 percent of the nation's COVID-19 deaths.

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Switzerland Peps Up SMEs

2020-03-28

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2020-03-28

How Switzerland peps up SMEs: Banks are encouraged to extend credit (at 0%). The treasury guarantees the loans. The SNB refinances banks and accepts the guaranteed loans as collateral. Fast and efficient. Eventually, some of these loans will turn into grants of course. But that’s ok; the first-best response to a shock with asymmetric effects does involve transfers if markets are incomplete.

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Companies contemplate bleak coronavirus outlook

2020-03-28

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2020-03-28

Swiss companies are reporting slumping sales, cashflow problems and bottlenecks in the supply of crucial materials as the coronavirus crisis hits the economy. However, a survey also found that three out of four firms are satisfied with a CHF42 billion ($43 billion) state bailout package.

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Coronavirus: the fallibility of fatality rates

2020-03-28

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2020-03-28

Naturally, many of us would like to know the fatality rate of Covid-19. But at this stage it is guesswork. Here are some of the problems with two of the most popular fatality rates. The most popular calculation involves dividing the number deaths by the number of cases. Epidemiologists call this a naive case fatality rate (CFR). There are two ways to calculate this rate.

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No Further Comment Necessary At This Point

2020-03-28

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2020-03-28

Primary Dealer Repo Fails (UST), 2017-2020
I would write something snarky about bank reserves, but why bother at this point? It’s already been said. If Jay Powell doesn’t mention collateral, no one else does even though it’s the whole ballgame right now. Note: FRBNY’s updated figures shown below are for last week.

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Diversification versus Risk

2020-03-28

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2020-03-28

It is widely held that financial asset prices fully reflect all available and relevant information, and that adjustments to new information is virtually instantaneous. This way of thinking which is known as the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is closely linked with the modern portfolio theory (MPT), which postulates that market participants are at least as good at price forecasting as any model that a financial market scholar can come up with,...

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Corona-Krise – Eine machbare, vertretbare Lösung

2020-03-28

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2020-03-28

Nachdem ich mich systematisch mit den verschiedenen Teilproblemen beschäftigt habe, bin ich nun überzeugt, eine machbare, vertretbare und rasche Lösung für das Corona-Problem gefunden zu haben.

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FX Daily, March 27: Nervousness Ahead of the Weekend

2020-03-27

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2020-03-27

Overview: Officials appear to have persuaded investors that they have put into place measures that will cushion the economic blow and ensure that the financial system continues to function. After seemingly goading officials into action, investors are choosing not to resist. Moreover, there is a recognition that many programs are scalable.

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USD/CHF Price Analysis: Dollar easing further from monthly tops, approaching 0.9600 figure vs. CHF

2020-03-27

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2020-03-27

USD/CHF daily chart
USD/CHF is trading down for the fourth consecutive day. The level to beat for bears is the 0.9600 support. USD/CHF is easing from the monthly highs as the spot drops below the main SMAs on the daily chart. The US dollar is down against most currencies this Thursday.

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Coronavirus: a test to see if you’ve had it is in the pipeline

2020-03-27

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2020-03-27

Coronavirus testing has been rationed in Switzerland, reserving it for high risk more severe cases, although doctors retain discretion to have anyone tested. It is likely those that have been infected and have recovered will have immunity and no longer be able to act as carriers of the disease.

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ECB Approaching its Bazooka Moment

2020-03-27

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2020-03-27

ECB Balance Sheet Total Assets, 2010-2019
The ECB appears to be moving closer to activating Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT).  Despite being part of Draghi’s “whatever it takes” moment, OMT has never been used.  If the Fed’s open-ended QE is seen as dollar-negative, then OMT should be seen as euro-negative.

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