Tag Archive: newsletter
Slump, Downturn, Recession; All Add Up To Sideways
According to Germany’s Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, or ZEW, the slump in the country’s economy has now reached its fourteenth month. The institute’s sentiment index has improved in the last two, but only slightly. As of the latest calculation released today, it stands at -3.6.
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The Real End of the Bond Market
These things are actually quite related, though I understand how it might not appear to be that way at first. As noted earlier today, the Fed (yet again) proves it has no idea how global money markets work. They can’t even get federal funds right after two technical adjustments to IOER (the joke).
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FX Daily, March 21: Dovish Fed Sends Global Yields Lower, but Little Succor for Stocks
The dovishness of the Federal Reserve sent ripples through the capital markets. US equities reversed initial gains, but Asia Pacific equities edged higher, though Japanese markets were closed for a national holiday. European shares are struggling, as financials and consumer discretionary lead the 0.3% push lower. US shares are also trading with a heavier bias.
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Monetary policy assessment of 21 March 2019
The Swiss National Bank is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy, thereby stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB remains at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%. The SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.
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Top Swiss institutes launch joint cyber-security programme
Switzerland’s federal technology institutes have launched a new Masters degree in cyber-security as part of an effort to play a leading role in studying the protection of computers and networks. The two Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology, Lausanne's EPFL and Zurich's ETH, already offer “world-class training in the fields of computing and information technology," said education and research minister Guy Parmelin at the announcement of the new...
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While the Nation Fragments Socially, the Financial Aristocracy Rules Unimpeded
If there is one central irony in American history, it is this: the citizenry that broke free of the chains of British Monarchy, the citizenry that reckoned everyone was equal before the law, the citizenry that vowed never to be ruled by an aristocracy that controlled the government and finance as a means of self-enrichment, is now so distracted by social fragmentation that the citizenry is blind to their servitude to a new and formidably informal...
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FX Daily, March 20: Brexit Drama Continues but Fed Moves to Center Stage
Overview: US stocks were not able to hold onto early gains yesterday, and this has helped set the stage for today's heavier bias. Asia Pacific markets were narrowly mixed, with Japan and Korea eking out small gains while China and Taiwan slipped a little. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is threatening to snap a five-day advance as materials, healthcare, and energy leads the profit-taking while communication and real estate are proving a bit more...
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Swiss Trade Balance February 2019: New Peak of Exports
In February 2019, like the previous month, seasonally-adjusted exports increased (+ 2.3%), reaching a record level of 19.4 billion francs. On the other hand, imports fell by 1.2% in one month to 17.4 billion francs. The trade balance shows a surplus of 2.0 billion francs.
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Report urges more sustainability from Swiss financial centre
Switzerland must make its financial centre more sustainable and transparent to ensure it doesn’t lose access to the European market, according to a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers seen by Swiss public radio, RTS. This conclusion was part of an assessment carried out by the consulting firm and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), which analysed the consequences of the European Union’s action plan on financing sustainable growth, due to be presented to...
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Cryptocurrencies accepted by Switzerland’s biggest online retailer
Switzerland’s largest online shop, Digitec Galaxus, has announced it will start accepting payments in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The company, which saw turnover of close to a billion francs last year, is by far the largest Swiss retailer to date to take this step. The move may go some way to answering the question posed by many bitcoin holders: “I have cryptocurrencies, now what do I do with them?”
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The World Economy’s Industrial Downswing
As economic data for 2019 comes in, the numbers continue to suggest more slowing especially in the goods economy. Perhaps what happened during that October-December window was a soft patch. Even if that was the case, we should still expect second and third order effects to follow along from it.
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FX Daily, March 19: Third Vote on Withdrawal Bill Scuppered Until after EU Summit
Overview: The capital markets remain subdued. Many Asian equity markets eased after a strong two-day advance. European equities are slightly firmer. The S&P 500 closed at new five-month highs yesterday. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly a little softer. Australian 10-year bond yield fell five basis points, and the discount to the US widened to a new high since the early 1980s.
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Parliament sets conditions on further EU payments
Switzerland should only make another billion-franc “cohesion” payment to the European Union if the EU doesn’t discriminate against Switzerland, parliament has agreed. The House of Representatives on Monday approved the CHF1.3 billion ($1.3 billion) that will help reduce the economic and social inequalities between old and new EU countries over the next decade.
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Chart(s) of the Week: Reviewing Curve Warnings
Quick review: stocks hit a bit of a rough patch right during the height of inflation hysteria. At the end of January 2018, just as the US unemployment rate had finally achieved the very center of attention, global markets were rocked by instability. Unexpectedly, of course.
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FX Daily, March 18: Equities Advance, Dollar Slips, Key Events Awaited
The eventful week has begun off slowly. After Wall Street's best week in four months underpinned Asian' equities, where all the markets but Thailand, advanced, led by the nearly 2.5% rally in Shanghai. Note that New Zealand's S&P/NZX 50 rose to new record highs.
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FX Weekly Preview: Three Highlights in the Week Ahead
Three events next week will shape the investment climate. The Federal Reserve meets and will update its forecasts and guidance. The British House of Commons may vote for a third time on the Withdrawal Bill before Prime Minister May heads of the EU Summit to ask for an extension of the UK leaving the EU. The eurozone sees the flash March PMI, with great hope that the green shoots of spring will be evident.
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Brexit update: UK parliament opts for an extension
After an eventful week in parliament, the Brexit ball is set to keep rolling as MPs move to extend the 29 March deadline.The British Parliament concluded a series of votes on Brexit this week with an intention to extend the 29 March Brexit deadline. What remains unclear at this point is whether the UK will seek a short (two months) or a longer extension (two years).
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The Coming Crisis the Fed Can’t Fix: Credit Exhaustion
Having fixed the liquidity crisis of 2008-09 and kept a perversely unequal "recovery" staggering forward for a decade, central banks now believe there is no crisis they can't defeat: Liquidity crisis? Flood the global financial system with liquidity. Interest rates above zero? Create trillions out of thin air and use the "free money" to buy bonds. Mortgage and housing markets shaky?
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US lobbies Switzerland to drop Chinese telecom giant Huawei
The US has expressed concern over the use of Chinese technology in Switzerland, suggesting it may be used for espionage, reports the Sonntagszeitung newspaper. Sonntagszeitung cited the Swiss foreign ministry as saying that the US embassy in Bern had conducted “an exchange of views on this subject at diplomatic level.”
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