Tag Archive: newsletter

Dollar Weak Ahead of Likely Dovish Hold from the Fed

2020-07-30

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2020-07-30

US and Germany Yields
The FOMC decision today is likely to deliver a very dovish tone; the dollar tends to weaken on FOMC decision days. Tensions about the latest US stimulus bill are rising; core bond yields have been remarkably stable over the last several months.

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New Unemployment Increased to 1.4 Million Last Week as Recovery Falters

2020-07-30

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2020-07-30

The rising unemployment comes partly as a result of state governments forcing the closures of some businesses, or restricting operations, in the name of mandatory social distancing.

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Gold Reaches $2,000/oz Prior to Two “Concerted Attacks” In Futures Market

2020-07-30

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2020-07-30

Gold Price
The King Report“Anyone that’s been around the block a few times with gold knows that at some point ‘they’ will stage a concerted effort to drive gold lower.” December gold hit $2,000 at 21:19 ET Monday. It then retreated and traded sideways until 22:50 ET. Then someone slammed gold down to $1,955 in 20 minutes. This is obvious “impact trading.” Gold then traded sideways for over four hours.

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FX Daily, July 29: Greenback Slips Ahead of the FOMC

2020-07-29

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2020-07-29

Global equity markets are stabilizing today, and the dollar is once again on its back foot. Chinese markets led a mixed regional performance with a 2%-3% gain, while South Korea and Hong Kong markets also advancing. The strength of the yen appears to weigh on Japanese shares.

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American Police Forces Were Created to Fight Rioters. But Police Probably Made Things Worse.

2020-07-29

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2020-07-29

Whenever the vicious portion of population shall be permitted to gather in bands of hundreds and thousands, and burn churches, ravage and rob provision-stores, throw printing presses into rivers, shoot editors, and hang and burn obnoxious persons at pleasure, and with impunity,” Abraham Lincoln told a crowd in Springfield, Illinois, in 1838, “the feelings of the best citizens will become more or less alienated from it.

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The Nation Is Falling Into the Abyss Between Wall Street and Main Street

2020-07-29

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2020-07-29

Student Loans Owned and Securitized, 2008-2020
The abyss between the Fed's illusion of phantom wealth for Wall Street and the collapse of Main Street is bottomless, and our descent into the abyss is accelerating. I know this runs counter to every dominant narrative, but a vaccine doesn't really matter, opening up doesn't really matter, and the size of the "free money" stimulus checks doesn't matter.

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Dollar Stabilizes but Further Losses Likely

2020-07-29

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2020-07-29

Dollar YTD Performance, 2020
The dollar is stabilizing today but further losses are likely. Senate Republicans have proposed a sharp cut to weekly unemployment benefits; Senator Collins will oppose Judy Shelton’s nomination to the Fed. Regional Fed manufacturing surveys for July will continue to roll out; early July reads for the US economy support our view that Q3 is off to a rocky start.

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There Are No Winners in the US-China “Tech War”

2020-07-29

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2020-07-29

Global Exports and Manufacturing
After unleashing a disruptive trade conflict with China, the Trump administration has also escalated the lingering “cold tech war” between the two rival powers. Over the last two years, the US has passed new rules limiting China’s investments in the US, restricting bilateral information and communications technology (ICT) trade and controlling exports of sensitive and emerging technology to China.

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FX Daily, July 28: Dollar Bounces, Gold Slips, while Equities Hold Their Own

2020-07-28

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2020-07-28

The main development in the capital markets today is the firmer dollar against nearly all the major and emerging market currencies.  Among the majors, the New Zealand dollar and Swedish krona are the heaviest (~-0.4%), while the Swiss franc and yen are marginally lower.

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“Unabhängigkeit der Nationalbank (Independence of the SNB),” FuW, 2020

2020-07-28

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2020-07-28

Von verschiedenen Seiten werden Ansprüche an den Gewinn der Nationalbank gestellt. Es sollte in der Kompetenz der SNB liegen, zu entscheiden, welchen Teil ihrer Bilanz sie nicht zur Erfüllung ihrer Aufgaben benötigt.

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Swiss care homes and hospitals charged for mouldy masks

2020-07-28

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2020-07-28

Expired, foul-smelling masks cost nearly a franc apiece for facilities in canton Bern at the start of the coronavirus crisis. As a healthcare worker told Swiss public radio, SRF, on Monday, some of the masks they had received earlier this year had to be recalled because they were covered in mildew.

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Dollar Remains Under Pressure as European Outlook Shines

2020-07-28

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2020-07-28

US Inflation Expectations, 2019-2020
The outlook for risk assets remains uncertain; the dollar continues to make new lows; the uncertain outlook continues to propel gold and silver higher. The next round of stimulus in the US is proving to be difficult; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for July will continue to roll out. German July IFO survey came in better than expected; eurozone June M3 rose 9.2% y/y vs. 8.9% in May.

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The Myth of the Failure of Capitalism

2020-07-28

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2020-07-28

The nearly universal opinion expressed these days is that the economic crisis of recent years marks the end of capitalism. Capitalism allegedly has failed, has proven itself incapable of solving economic problems, and so mankind has no alternative, if it is to survive, than to make the transition to a planned economy, to socialism.

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FX Daily, July 27: Dollar Slide Continues, while Gold Soars

2020-07-27

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2020-07-27

The US dollar's dramatic sell-off continues. It is off against nearly all currencies.  Among the majors, the Swedish krona and Japanese yen are leading the money, and the euro surged through $1.17.  Emerging market currencies are fully participating, with the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index posting its fifth gain in six sessions.

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“Monetäre Staatsfinanzierung mit Folgen (Monetary Financing of Government),” Die Volkswirtschaft, 2020

2020-07-27

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2020-07-27

Die Volkswirtschaft, 24 July 2020. PDF. Clarifying the connections between outright monetary financing, QE, the distribution of seignorage profits, the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy, and central bank independence.

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Most returning to Switzerland from Covid-19 risk countries skipping quarantine

2020-07-27

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2020-07-27

Less than half of those returning to Switzerland from countries listed by the Swiss government as having a high risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection are complying with the quarantine rules set out in Switzerland’s Epidemic Act, according to an estimate by the NZZ newspaper.

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US Stall? Only Half The Imagined “V” May Indicate One, Too

2020-07-27

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2020-07-27

IHS Markit US Composite, 2018-2020
These are not numbers that are consistent with a robust rebound. In fact, they don’t indicate very much of one at all. IHS Markit’s flash PMI’s for July 2020 instead look way too much like the sentiment indicators in Germany and Japan. Though they are now back near 50, both services and manufacturing, that doesn’t actually indicate what everyone seems to think it does.

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Money-Supply Growth Hits New High For Third Month In a Row

2020-07-27

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2020-07-27

M2 and TMS, in billions of $, 1996-2020
In June, for the third month in a row, money supply growth surged to an all-time high, following new all-time highs in both April and May that came in the wake of unprecedented quantitative easing, central bank asset purchases, and various stimulus packages.

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Gold futures end a stone’s throw away from a record

2020-07-27

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2020-07-27

Gold futures ended higher for a fifth straight session Thursday, with the most-active contract just short of notching a settlement record, highlighting feverish demand for bullion amid the worst pandemic in over a century.

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Swiss business raided over Fiat-Iveco ‘Dieselgate’ probe

2020-07-26

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2020-07-26

Investigators have searched offices of car giant Fiat Chrysler and truck maker CNH Industrial in Switzerland, Germany and Italy as part of a German-led probe into suspected illegal manipulation of diesel emissions.

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