Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Weekly Preview: Synchonized Emergence from Soft Patch?

2019-11-04

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2019-11-04

There have been plenty of developments warning of a global economic slowdown. Yet, seemingly to justify the continued advance in equity prices, there has begun to be talk of possible cyclical and global rebound. That is the new constellation, connecting the better than expected Japanese, South Korean, and Chinese September industrial output figures,  a slightly stronger than expected Q3  GDP reports from the US and the eurozone. 

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-11-04

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2019-11-04

EM should continue to benefit from the generalized improvement in the global backdrop. Trade tensions have eased whilst the risks of a hard Brexit have fallen, at least for now. Yet recent developments in some major EM countries underscores how important it is for investors to differentiate between the strong credits and the weak ones.

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Swiss government cuts drug prices by 100 million francs

2019-11-03

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2019-11-03

Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) recently announced it had reduced the price Swiss healthcare providers and patients will pay for 257 drugs by 16.3%. These lower prices, which take affect on 1 December 2019, are expected to save CHF 100 million annually.

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Minimum Swiss internet speed to triple in 2020

2019-11-03

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2019-11-03

The Federal Council, Switzerland’s executive, has confirmed a decision made by parliament to raise the minimum speed of broadband internet connections in Switzerland. From 1 January 2020, the minimum download speed specified in Switzerland’s universal service agreement with Swisscom will rise from 3 to 10 megabits per second (Mbits/s) and the minimum upload speed will rise from 0.3 to 1 Mbit/s.

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More Synchronized, More Downturn, Still Global

2019-11-03

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2019-11-03

China GDP, 2007-2019
China was the world economy’s best hope in 2017. Like it was the only realistic chance to push out of the post-2008 doldrums, a malaise that has grown increasingly spasmatic and dangerous the longer it goes on. Communist authorities, some of them, anyway, reacted to Euro$ #3’s fallout early on in 2016 by dusting off their Keynes. A stimulus panic that turned out to be more panic than stimulus.

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Traden mit den Insidern – Wie Sie COT Daten profitabel nutzen Teil1

2019-11-02

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Die COT Daten (Commitments of Traders) zeigen uns jede Woche, wie die großen Marktteilnehmer positioniert sind, wo mit steigenden und wo mit fallenden Preisen gerechnet wird. Profitrader und Asset Manager Martin Goersch nutzt seine Interpretationen dieser Zahlen seit mehr als zehn Jahren als Grundlage seiner Swingtrading-Strategien in Währungen und Rohstoffen. In diesem Webinar wird er Ihnen zeigen, wie auch Sie die tatsächlichen Positionierungen...

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Switzerland calls time on phone booths

2019-11-02

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2019-11-02

The last telephone box in French-speaking Switzerland, on the shores of Lake Geneva, was dismantled on Thursday. Swisscom will remove the one in the country – in Baden, northern Switzerland – on November 28. An era in the history of Swiss telecommunications is thus coming to an end, an era that witnessed millions of declarations of love, tears and banal conversations in the little cabins that once stood on almost every street corner.

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The Inventory Context For Rate Cuts and Their Real Nature/Purpose

2019-11-02

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2019-11-02

Case Study In Inventory, 2006-2019
What typically distinguishes recessions from downturns is the inventory cycle. Even in 2008, that was the basis for the Great “Recession.” It was distinguished most prominently by the financial conditions and global-reaching panic, true, but the effects of the monetary crash registered heaviest in the various parts of that inventory process. An economy for whatever reasons slows down.

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Mexico vs. Brazil Near-Term Outlook

2019-11-02

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2019-11-02

Interest Rates Favor Peso vs Real
Both Brazil and Mexico are in a good position to benefit from the current improvement in market sentiment. However, when comparing the factors driving the currencies of both countries, we think there are relatively more near-term positives for the Mexican peso than for the Brazilian real.

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Time To Replace Bonds With Gold

2019-11-02

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2019-11-02

◆ “It may be time to replace bonds with gold”according to the just released excellent new Investment Update by the World Gold Council.◆ Central banks have shifted to a new regime of easy monetary policy, thus reducing expected bond returns.

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Swiss commission supports new laws to protect whistleblowers

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

A commission of the Council of States, Switzerland’s upper house, is in favour of new rules to protect whistleblowers. The proposed rules, which would help to protect those who expose secretive information or activity that is deemed illegal or unethical, were supported by 6 commission votes to 2 with 4 abstentions.

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FX Daily, November 1: Dollar Remains on the Defensive Ahead of Jobs Report

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

Overview: An unexpected increase in China's Caixin manufacturing PMI helped lift Asia Pacific equities after the S&P 500 stumbled yesterday amid concerns that there will not be a phase 2 in US-China trade negotiations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 4.3% in October, and with the help of gains in China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan began November with a gain.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in October 2019: -0.3 percent YoY, -0.2 percent MoM

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, October 2019
The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in October 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.8 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.3% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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Swiss Retail Sales, September 2019: +0.6 percent Nominal and +0.9 percent Real

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, September 2019
Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.6% in nominal terms in September 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.5% compared with the previous month. Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.9% in September 2019 compared with the previous year.

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SNB’s Jordan: Without negative rates, CHF would be more attractive and rise in value

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

In his prepared remarks delivered to pension managers on Thursday, Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan said negative interest rates and readiness to intervene in the forex market was still essential to ease the pressure on the Swiss Franc.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Greenback nearing the October lows, consolidating near 0.9870 level

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

USD/CHF daily chart
USD/CHF is consolidating its losses this Thursday. The level to beat for bears is the 0.9855 support. On the daily chart, USD/CHF is trading in a range below its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). The market is approaching the October low, currently at the 0.9837 price level.

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Three (Rate Cuts) And GDP, Where (How) Does It End?

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

The Real GDP Problem,1988-2018
The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will now pause – for a second time, supposedly. Remember the first: after raising its benchmark rates apparatus in December while still talking about an inflationary growth acceleration requiring even more hikes throughout 2019, in a matter of weeks that was transformed into a temporary suspension of them.

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The Inventory Context For Rate Cuts And Their Real Nature/Purpose

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

Case Study in Inventory, 2006-2019
What typically distinguishes recessions from downturns is the inventory cycle. Even in 2008, that was the basis for the Great “Recession.” It was distinguished most prominently by the financial conditions and global-reaching panic, true, but the effects of the monetary crash registered heaviest in the various parts of that inventory process.

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Global Economy Faces ‘Scary Situation’ – Billionaire Investment Manager Dalio Warns

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

Likely to have a downturn while “there is not effective monetary policy and that is a ‘scary situation’ – Billionaire Investment Manager Ray Dalio

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FX Daily, October 31: No Good Deed Goes Unpunished

2019-10-31

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2019-10-31

Overview: The equity and bond rally in North America yesterday carried over into today's session. With some notable exceptions, like China, Taiwan, Australia, and Indonesia, most bourses in Asia Pacific and Europe traded higher. US shares are little changed in early Europe after the S&P 500 rose to new record highs.

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