Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, December 18: Stock Rout Deepens, Casts Shadow over Holiday Spirit

2018-12-18

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2018-12-18

Overview: The 2% slide in the S&P 500 to new lows for the year yesterday hit Asian and European equities today. Bond yields are lower, and the dollar is softer against most major currencies. The dramatic equity losses and some disappointing data sparked doubts about the ability of the Fed to raise rates tomorrow at the conclusion of its last meeting of the year.

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Pension fund statistics 2017: definitive results

2018-12-18

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2018-12-18

The pension funds can look back on a positive year of investment: net income from investments doubled in 2017, strengthening the reserves and reducing any underfunding. These are some of the final results from the Federal Statistical Office’s 2017 pension fund statistics. You will find further information such as tables and graphs in the PDF below.

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UK signs air service deal with Switzerland for post-Brexit flights

2018-12-18

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2018-12-18

British Secretary of State for Transport Chris Grayling is set to sign an agreement with Switzerland on Monday to ensure air services continue to operate between the two countries after Brexit. Britain is due to leave the European Union on March 29, but uncertainty over how, or even if, Brexit will happen has increased the possibility of the country exiting without a deal on departure terms, a scenario that some companies said would usher in chaos.

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The Relevant Word Is ‘Decline’

2018-12-18

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2018-12-18

China Industrial Production, Nov 1998 - 2018
The English language headline for China’s National Bureau of Statistics’ press release on November 2018’s Big 3 was, National Economy Maintained Stable and Sound Momentum of Development in November. For those who, as noted yesterday, are wishing China’s economy bad news so as to lead to the supposed good news of a coordinated “stimulus” response this was itself a bad news/good news situation.

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FX Daily, December 17: Markets Quiet to Start Fed Week

2018-12-17

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2018-12-17

Activity in the global capital markets is subdued as investors move to the sidelines as the year-end approaches. The Federal Reserve headlines the holiday week that also features a Bank of England a Bank of Japan meeting. Only the Fed is expected to change rates.

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FX Weekly Preview: FOMC Dominates Week Ahead Calendar

2018-12-17

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2018-12-17

The last FOMC meeting of 2018 is at hand. After hiking rates three times in 2017, the Fed signaled that four hikes were likely this year and with a widely expected move on December 20, it would have fully delivered, though many steps along the way, skeptical investors had to be led by the nose, as it were, to minimize the element of surprise.

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Swiss prepare to fight age discrimination

2018-12-17

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2018-12-17

A people's initiative, allowing workers over 50 to sue for age discrimination, will be launched soon, the NZZ am Sonntag reported on Sunday. According to Heidi Joos, the CEO of Avenir 50 plus, one of the organisations behind the project, this proposed constitutional provision should allow employees to sue a company if they believe they have been dismissed for age-related reasons or if their application for employment has not been taken into account...

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“Yellow Vests” and the Downward Mobility of the Middle Class

2018-12-17

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2018-12-17

Capital garners the gains, and labor's share continues eroding. That's the story of the 21st century. The middle class, virtually by definition, is not prepared for downward mobility. A systemic, semi-permanent decline in the standard of living isn't part of the implicit social contract that's been internalized by the middle class virtually everywhere:living standards are only supposed to rise.

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How Faux Capitalism Works in America

2018-12-17

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2018-12-17

The Short Squeeze Tweet
Stars in the Night Sky. The U.S. stock market’s recent zigs and zags have provoked much squawking and screeching.  Wall Street pros, private money managers, and Millennial index fund enthusiasts all find themselves on the wrong side of the market’s swift movements.  Even the best and brightest can’t escape President Trump’s tweet precipitated short squeezes.

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Sometimes Bad News Is Just Right

2018-12-16

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2018-12-16

China Imports 2008-2018
There is some hope among those viewing bad news as good news. In China, where alarms are currently sounding the loudest, next week begins the plenary session for the State Council and its working groups. For several days, Communist authorities will weigh all the relevant factors, as they see them, and will then come up with the broad strokes for economic policy in the coming year (2019).

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SNB leave interest rates on hold, what next for GBP/CHF rates?

2018-12-15

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2018-12-15

This morning the Swiss National Bank have left interest rates on hold at 0.75%, and market reaction between GBP/CHF has been limited. The Swiss Franc has rallied slightly against the US dollar and the Euro as forecasters were suggesting the SNB could cut interest rates further, however the events last night in the UK I believe outweighs the interest rate decision in Switzerland.

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ECB: Still Broadly Confident, but Caution Increasing

2018-12-15

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2018-12-15

ECB Staff Projections
The ECB kept its key rates unchanged (i.e. the main refinancing at 0.00%; the marginal lending facility rate at 0.25% and the deposit rate at -0.4%), in line with consensus. The ECB’s forward guidance on interest rates was kept unchanged. The ECB expects its policy rates to “remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019”.

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Emerging market currencies: idiosyncratic risks strike back

2018-12-15

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2018-12-15

EM Scorecard table, December 12, 2018
The environment will remain challenging for EM currencies next year.Despite a dovish shift by the Fed and the temporary truce in the US-Chinese trade dispute, the global environment remains challenging for emerging market (EM) currencies. In fact, our latestEM FX scorecard, which ranks 10 EM currencies according to key criteria such as growth and vulnerability to external shocks, is still unable to identify a single attractive EM currency among the...

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FX Daily, December 14: Week Closing on a Disappointing Note

2018-12-14

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2018-12-14

Overview:  A string of disappointing economic is spurring risk-off sentiment today.  Global shares prices are being punished and core bonds are being snapped up.  The US dollar is trading higher against most major and emerging market currencies.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was flat on the week coming into today's session.

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Large downward revisions to the Swiss National Bank’s inflation forecasts

2018-12-14

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2018-12-14

Swiss Headline Inflation and SNB Inflation Forecasts
Fresh inflation projections likely to keep the central bank on the path of prudence.The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its monetary policy unchanged at its quarterly meeting today.The main policy rate was left at a record low (-0.75%) and the central bank reiterated its currency intervention pledge.

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Swiss Supermarkets Selling Products with no Country of Origin on Label

2018-12-14

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2018-12-14

For example, a piece of farmed salmon will typically be labelled only with its country of origin, containing no information on what the fish has been fed. Contaminated fish feed can significantly push up the level of dioxins found in the fish’s fat. Mad cows disease is another example of how animal feed contaminated food.

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US Banks Haven’t Behaved Like This Since 2009

2018-12-14

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2018-12-14

Total Credit Market Assets 1953 Q1 - 2018 Q1
If there is one thing Ben Bernanke got right, it was this. In 2009 during the worst of the worst monetary crisis in four generations, the Federal Reserve’s Chairman was asked in front of Congress if we all should be worried about zombies. Senator Bob Corker wasn’t talking about the literal undead, rather a scenario much like Japan where the financial system entered a period of sustained agony – leading to the same in the real economy, one lost...

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FX Daily, December 13: May Survives but its Draghi’s Day

2018-12-13

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2018-12-13

Overview: There is a sense of optimism among investors today that may be tested as the session progresses. News that China may reconsider its "Made in China 2025" initiative as an apparent concession to the US while reports suggest it has bought 1.5-2.0 mln tons of soy is easing trade tension fears. 

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Monetary Policy Assessment of 13 December 2018

2018-12-13

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2018-12-13

Conditional Inflation Forecast, December 2018
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansio nary mo netary policy, thereby stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB remains at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in November 2018: +1.4 percent YoY, -0.3 percent MoM

2018-12-13

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2018-12-13

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, November 2018
The Producer and Import Price Index fell in November 2018 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 103.1 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline is due in particular to lower prices for pharmaceutical products. Compared with November 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 1.4%.

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