Tag Archive: newsletter
Germany: signs of rebound ?
German growth may remain subdued in H1 2019, before picking up somewhat in H2 2019 as some near-term risks dissipate.Germany’s leading indicator, the Ifo index, rose in March, driven by an increase in both sub-components: current assessment and expectations.
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FX Daily, March 26: Semblance of Stability Re-Emerging
Overview: The sell-off in equities seemed to peak yesterday, and US indices were narrowly mixed. Traders found comfort in that performance, even though the S&P 500 finished a little below 2800, and took the markets in the Asia-Pacific region higher, except in China, where the Shanghai Composite fell 1.5%.
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Swiss parliament calls for more online purchases to be taxed
Since 1 January 2019, companies abroad making more than CHF 100,000 in revenue must charge Swiss VAT on sales made to anyone in Switzerland. Now the Swiss government has decided to take aim at online platforms such as Aliexpress and Wish, according to the broadcaster RTS.
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Europe and China
The US-China trade talks look like they may very well continue through most of the second quarter, despite how much progress is being claimed. Meanwhile, the tariffs remain in effect, but the market's sensitivity to developments has slackened since it was clear the Trump and Xi were not going to meet at the end of this month.
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The Media, Mueller, the Big Con and the Democratization of Narrative
Falling for a con is painful. The first reaction is to deny being conned, of course. The second is to blame skeptics for being correct in their skepticism. Here's the fundamental "story" of the Mueller Investigation: elites don't like "the little people" democratizing public narratives.
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FX Daily, March 25: Monday Blues: Equities Pare Quarterly Gains
Overview: Global equities have soured after the US shares dropped the most since very early in the year before the weekend. Asia's sell-off was led by the 3% decline in Nikkei, while Malaysia fared among the best, surrendering 1%. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off for a fourth session. It lost 1.2% at the end of last week and gapped lower today but stabilizing after the better than expected German IFO survey.
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Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q4 2018 and whole 2018
The current account surplus for 2018 was CHF 71 billion, CHF 26 billion more than in the previous year, an increase by over 50%.
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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead
The combination of the dovish hold by the Federal Reserve and the eurozone's miserable flash Purchasing Managers Index casts a pall over the economic outlook. Japan's flash PMI remained stuck at February's 48.9, while core inflation unexpectedly eased. Three months after the European Central Bank stopped buying bonds, the German 10-year Bund yield fell below zero for the first time since 2016.
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Swiss join protests against EU copyright reform
Tens of thousands of people across Europe, including in the Swiss city of Zurich, staged protests on Saturday against the European Union's planned copyright reform bill. More than 1,000 demonstrators marched in the northeastern Switzerland against the copyright reforms which critics fear threaten freedom of speech, according to the Keystone-SDA news agency.
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Politics Has Failed, Now Central Banks Are Failing
With each passing day, we get closer to the shift in the tide that will sweep away this self-serving delusion of the ruling elites like a crumbling sand castle. Those living in revolutionary times are rarely aware of the tumult ahead: in 1766, a mere decade before the Declaration of Independence, virtually no one was calling for American independence.
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Is Inflation Beginning? Are You Ready?
Extrapolating The Recent Past Can Be Hazardous To Your Wealth. “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” remarked George Santayana over 100 years ago. These words, as strung together in this sequence, certainly sound good. But how to render them to actionable advice is less certain.
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Switzerland waives post-Brexit visa requirement for British nationals
The Swiss government has dropped the requirement that British nationals obtain a visa to enter Switzerland for a lengthy stay after Britain leaves the European Union. The British government has also extended the same privilege to Swiss nationals wishing to enter Britain after Brexit.
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February 2019 PBOC/RMB Update
This will serve mostly as an update to what is going on inside the Chinese monetary system. The PBOC’s balance sheet numbers for February 2019 are exactly what we’ve come to expect, ironically confirmed today on the domestic end by the FOMC’s dreaded dovishness. Therefore, rather than rewrite the same commentary for why this continues to happen I’ll just link to prior discussions.
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Wunschdenken von Frau BR Amherd
Das VBS hat seit dem neuen Jahr eine Cheffin. Anlässlich der SOG-DV vom 16. März 2019 hat sie sich an die Offiziere gewandt und dabei einige interessante Äusserungen (Hervorhebungen durch den Autor) gemacht, so etwa zu den “Entwicklungen im internationalen Streitkräftebereich”:
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Live Artikel 13 DEMO München 23.3.19
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Parliament rejects reform of health insurance scheme
Patients will not have to pay out extra money for health services before the health insurance covers the costs, after parliament surprisingly threw out the controversial proposal on Friday. In a previous decision earlier this month, parliament had agreed to increase the deductible paid by patients to CHF350 ($350) annually under certain conditions.
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FOMC: Above Trend Growth Requires Continued Monetary Support
The Federal Reserve sounded more dovish than many expected and this prompted a 5-7 bp drop in US rates, and the dollar fell to new lows for the week against many of the major currencies. The median Fed forecast now anticipates no hike this year but one next year. The Fed will also taper the roll-off of its balance sheet and completing it by the end of September.
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Which Nations Will Crumble and Which Few Will Prosper in the Next 25 Years?
Adaptability and flexibility will be the core survival traits going forward. What will separate the many nations that will crumble in the next 25 years and those few that will survive and even prosper while the status quo dissolves around them? As I explain in my recent book Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic, the factors that will matter are not necessarily cultural or financial; being hard-working and...
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FX Daily, March 22: Dreadful EMU PMI and US Machinations Rival Brexit for Attention
Overview: The S&P 500 recovered from the post-FOMC reversal to close a new 5-month high yesterday, led by technology. Financials were the only main sector to retreat. The large equity markets in Asia, Japan, China, Australia, South Korea, and Taiwan all advanced. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 reversed its initial gains and is nursing a small loss on the week.
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