Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, September 20: The Mixed Performance Makes it Difficult to Talk about The Dollar

2018-09-21

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2018-09-21

Sometimes the dollar is the key mover, but sometimes, like today, it seems to be the fulcrum, reflecting disparate moves among other currencies.  While the euro is at two-month highs, the yen is near two-month lows.   The euro is bouncing off two-month lows and the 100-day moving average against sterling.   Most emerging market currencies are advancing against the dollar today. 

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Contrasting Fortunes within the Euro Area

2018-09-21

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2018-09-21

Euro Area Average Growth
The four biggest euro area economies slowed in H1 2018 due to a number of factors, including weak exports. We expect a rebound in H2—except in Italy, where political uncertainty has been denting business confidence. Forward indicators show that Italy is the only of the four major euro area economies to face weaknesses both in export-led manufacturing and services, due domestic political uncertainties (including the upcoming state budget) as well as...

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Commodity Trading Consortium Launches Blockchain Platform

2018-09-21

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2018-09-21

A consortium of commodities traders, banks and the world’s largest goods inspection company have joined forces to launch a blockchain platform in Switzerland, which is intended to ease the administrative burden of shifting oil, grain and other products around the world.

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Trump’s Backdoor Power Play to Rein In the Fed

2018-09-21

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2018-09-21

“Just run the presses – print money.” That’s what President Donald Trump supposedly instructed his former chief economic adviser Gary Cohn to do in response to the budget deficit. The quote appears in Bob Woodward’s controversial book Fear: Trump in the White House.

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Das Bad im Geldhaufen

2018-09-20

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2018-09-20

Die Schweizerische Nationalbank hält die Schleusen im Kampf gegen die Frankenstärke weiterhin offen. Dies macht die Zentralbank indes zunehmend anfällig für politische Einflussnahme und Begehrlichkeiten. Als Carl Barks nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg die Comicfigur Dagobert Duck erschuf, dachte er kaum an die Schweiz.

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Monetary Policy Assessment of 20 September 2018

2018-09-20

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2018-09-20

SNB Switzerland Conditional Inflation Forecast
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy, thereby stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB remains at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%. The SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.

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Swiss Trade Balance August 2018: Exports above the 18 billion Franc Mark

2018-09-20

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2018-09-20

Switzerland Trade Balance, August 2018
After the dynamism registered until May 2018, Swiss foreign trade has been stalled since. In August and after seasonal adjustment, exports stagnated at a high level and imports fell by 1.1%. The trade balance has a surplus of 1.4 billion francs.

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Clariant announces strategic overhaul with Saudi partner

2018-09-20

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2018-09-20

Swiss specialty chemical maker Clariant has signed a memorandum of understanding to enter into a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabian firm SABIC. This will result in a major restructuring of the company along with changes in management and the board of directors. On Tuesday, Clariant said the collaboration will see the merger of units from both companies into a new High Performance Materials division.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – September

2018-09-20

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2018-09-20

Economic Growth & Investment September 20
This has already been one of the longest economic expansions on record for the US and there is little in the data or markets to indicate that is about to come to an end. Current levels of the yield curve are comparable to late 2005 in the last cycle. It was almost two years later before we even had an inkling of a problem and even in the summer of 2008 – nearly three years later – there was still a robust debate about whether the US could avoid...

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Digging into Wealth and Income Inequality

2018-09-20

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2018-09-20

US Stock Market Bubble
The assets of U.S. households recently topped $100 trillion, yet another sign that everything is going swimmingly in the U.S. economy. Let's take a look at the Federal Reserve's Household Balance Sheet, which lists the assets and liabilities of all U.S. households in very big buckets (real estate: $25 trillion). (For reasons unknown, the Fed lumps non-profit assets and liabilities with households, but these modest sums are easily subtracted.)

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Silver Is ‘Undervalued’ Relative to Stocks, Bonds, Gold – GoldCore

2018-09-20

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2018-09-20

Silver Price, Sep 2008 - 2018
– Silver is ‘undervalued’ relative to stocks, bonds and gold: GoldCore. – Silver at $14/oz is cheap relative to gold with gold-silver ratio over 85. – Silver drops to 32-month lows prompting sellout of Silver Eagle coins at U.S. Mint. – U.S. Mint said “recent increased demand” prompted a “temporary sell out” of its American Silver Eagle bullion coins as investors see silver coins as a bargain.

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FX Daily, September 19: Dollar Trades Heavily as Emerging Markets Follow China

2018-09-19

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2018-09-19

One would not have a clue looking at global equities that there has been a sharp escalation in trade tensions in the past 36 hours. As was well tipped the US imposed a 10% tariff on $200 bln of Chinese goods and indicated that the tariff will rise to 25% at the start of next year. President Trump also threatened to quickly follow up with another tariff on $267 bln of Chinese goods it retaliated.

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Unsere Nationalbank befeuert Dax und Wallstreet statt SMI

2018-09-19

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2018-09-19

EUR/CHF, 2010 - 2018
Im Januar 2010 betrugen die Devisenanlagen der Schweizerischen Nationalbank (SNB) 94 Milliarden Franken. Innerhalb der nächsten fünf Monate, also bis Mai 2010, explodierten diese auf 238 Milliarden. Das entspricht einem Plus von 150 Prozent (Faktor 2.5x). Was war geschehen?

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US Equities – Approaching an Inflection Point

2018-09-19

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2018-09-19

DJIA vs. NDX vs. NYA
A Lengthy Non-Confirmation. As we have frequently pointed out in recent months, since beginning to rise from the lows of the sharp but brief downturn after the late January blow-off high, the US stock market is bereft of uniformity. Instead, an uncommonly lengthy non-confirmation between the the strongest indexes and the broad market has been established.

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Swiss Housing – the hardest and easiest places to find a home

2018-09-19

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2018-09-19

Horw
Recent government figures show a 13% rise in the number of vacant homes over the 12 months to June 2018. The number has more than doubled since 2009 when there were close to 35,000 vacant dwellings. By 1 June 2018, there were more than 72,000, a vacancy rate of 1.62%.

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We’re All Speculators Now

2018-09-19

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2018-09-19

US Stock Market to GDP Ratio 1960-2020
When the herd thunders off the cliff, most participants are trapped in the stampede.. One of the most perverse consequences of the central banks "saving the world" (i.e. saving banks and the super-wealthy) is the destruction of low-risk investments: we're all speculators now, whether we know it or acknowledge it.

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Die richtige Unternehmensgesellschaft für Immobilieninvestments | Achim Zimmermann

2018-09-18

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Unternehmensgesellschaft für Immobilieninvestments - - sichere dir jetzt dein Ticket für den nächsten Immopreneur Kongress 2019: http://bit.ly/IPK19YT Welche Unternehmensgesellschaft ist die sinnvollste für mich als Immobilieninvestor? Diese Frage stellen sich viele Investoren, denn die falsche Wahl kann viel Geld und viele Nerven kosten. Achim Zimmermann erklärt dir in diesem Video, worauf du dabei achten solltest. Jetzt für die Immopreneur...

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Dollar Slips, though Emerging Markets Trade Heavily

2018-09-18

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2018-09-18

The US dollar is beginning the new week on a soft note, as China threatens not to accept the invitation for trade talks in Washington if the US imposes new tariffs on $200 bln of its goods, which the Wall Street Journal reports could come as early as today. Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is giving back half of the 2.5% rally seen in the second half of last week.

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BNS. Peuple suisse, tu peux trembler pour ton épargne et ta retraite! LHK

2018-09-18

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2018-09-18

Financing of the SNB
Le financement du bilan de la BNS se fait en grande partie par les liquidités des banques cantonales et les Raiffeisen.  Va-t-elle nous rendre un jour nos économies? LHK Les forcenés de la printing press: le plus forcené ce n’est pas celui que l’on croit, non c’est la Banque Nationale Suisse! Total du bilan par rapport à la taille du GDP. Les forcenés de la printing press: la BNS! Cette entrée a été publiée dans Autres...

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Over 7,000 farms get lower subsidies due to irregularities

2018-09-18

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2018-09-18

The federal authorities last year cut direct subsidies paid to 16% of all Swiss farms due to irregularities often due to animal protection and welfare issues. In all, 7,145 farms, or 16% of the total, received lower payments, the SonntagsZeitung wrote on Sunday. The report was based on figures that have yet to be published by the Federal Office for Agriculture, but which were confirmed by the economics ministry.

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