Tag Archive: newsletter

Cool Video: Trump Ahead in 2020?

2019-04-17

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2019-04-17

Marc Chandler
First, I tried playing down the significance of Goldman's call. The markets have anticipated this. redictIt.Org has shown the President to be an easy favorite since the start of the year. Charles Payne, the host, dismissed these results because he said they reflect professional gambler. I don't know if that is true or even relevant (ad hominem?).

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Swiss pension funds ended 2018 in the red

2019-04-17

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2019-04-17

Pay-outs by Switzerland’s main state pension plan, which comprises old age insurance and other schemes, far exceeded income last year. Overall, the old age pension scheme recorded a deficit of CHF2.2 billion ($2.2 billion) in 2018 compared with a surplus of CHF1.1 billion the previous year, according to compenswiss, the Federal Social Security Funds.

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Green Shoot or Domestic Stall?

2019-04-17

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2019-04-17

U.S. Industrial Production, SA 2007-2019
According to revised figures, things were really looking up for US industry. For the month of April 2018, the Federal Reserve’s Diffusion Index (3-month) for Industrial Production hit 68.2. Like a lot of other sentiment indicators, this was the highest in so long it had to be something. For this particular index, it hadn’t seen better than 68 since way back in March 2010, back when the economy looked briefly like it might actually recover.

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FX Daily, April 16: The Dollar and Stocks Catch a Bid

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

Amid light news, global equities are moving higher In Asia, the Nikkei rose to a new high since early December, while the Shanghai Composite rose 2.3% and posted its highest close since March 2018. European equities are solid, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 moving higher for the fifth consecutive session.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in March 2019: -0.2 percent YoY, +0.3 percent MoM

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, March 2019
15.04.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index increased in March 2019 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 102.2 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products. Compared with March 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.2%.

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What happens next on GBP/CHF exchange rates?

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

The pound to Swiss franc exchange rate has been rather volatile, oscillating in a tight range between 1.2942 and 1.3336 in the last month. There is an expectation that we could see the pound losing further ground with the market bracing for worse news in the future for sterling.

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New Inflation Indicator, Report 14 Apr

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

Gold and Silver Price
Last week, we wrote that regulations, taxes, environmental compliance, and fear of lawsuits forces companies to put useless ingredients into their products. We said: “For example, milk comes from the ingredients of: land, cows, ranch labor, dairy labor, dairy capital equipment, distribution labor, distribution capital, and consumable containers.”

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Swiss leaders upbeat after talks in US on tax and trade

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

Obstacles to implementation of a revised double-taxation agreement between Switzerland and the United States may soon be removed, according to Swiss president and finance minister Ueli Maurer. Maurer was speaking after a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Saturday in Washington, where he is attending the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank.

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Coloring One Green Shoot

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

China Retail Sales, 2010-2018
China’s Passenger Car Association reported last week that retail sales of various vehicles totaled 1.78 million units in March 2019. The total was 12% less than the number of automobiles sold in March 2018. This matches the government’s data, both sets very clear as to when Chinese economic struggles accelerated: May 2018.

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FX Daily, April 15: Redemption Monday

2019-04-15

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2019-04-15

The holiday-shortened week is off to a slow, tentative start. The surge of the S&P 500 before the weekend failed to inspire today. Asia markets were mostly firmer, led by Japan, while China, Hong Kong, and Singapore moved lower.

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FX Weekly Preview: Dollar Super Cycle Revisited

2019-04-15

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2019-04-15

In the big picture, we argue that the dollar’s appreciation is part of the third significant dollar rally since the end of Bretton Woods. The first was the Reagan-Volcker dollar rally, spurred by a policy mix of tight monetary and loose fiscal policies.

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SNB-Aktie: Goldgrube oder Fettnäpfchen?

2019-04-15

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2019-04-15

Das Bundesgesetz über die Nationalbank (Nationalbankgesetz, NBG) besagt in Artikel 25: „Das Aktienkapital der Nationalbank beträgt 25 Millionen Franken. Es ist eingeteilt in 100’000 Namenaktien mit einem Nennwert von je 250 Franken. Die Aktien sind vollständig liberiert.“ Und in Artikel 31 Absatz 1 steht: „Vom Bilanzgewinn wird eine Dividende von höchstens 6 Prozent des Aktienkapitals ausgerichtet.“

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No Fix for Recession: Without a Financial Crisis, There’s No Central Bank Policy Fix

2019-04-15

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2019-04-15

All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets 2004-2018
There are no extreme "fixes" to secular declines in sales, profits, employment, tax revenues and asset prices. The saying "never let a crisis go to waste" embodies several truths worth pondering as the stock market nears new highs. One truth is that extreme policies that would raise objections in typical times can be swept into law in the "we have to do something" panic of a crisis.

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Switzerland: Lower growth, lower inflation

2019-04-15

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2019-04-15

Swiss Quarterly GDP Growth, 2007-2018
Growth and price rises should moderate in 2019.The Swiss economy posted impressive GDP growth in 2018, although there was significant divergence between strong growth in the first half and stagnation in the second. Overall, we expect Swiss GDP to expand by 1.3% in 2019, down substantially from 2.5% in 2018. Risks to our growth outlook for Switzerland are tilted to the downside.

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Holiday traffic jams build at Gotthard tunnel

2019-04-15

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2019-04-15

The start of the Easter holidays in many Swiss cantons is causing long tailbacks at the Gotthard tunnel in central Switzerland, with waits of more than two hours at the northern end. Just before midday on Saturday, the traffic queue to enter the tunnel going south stretched for 14 kilometres, according to the Touring Club of Switzerland (TCS). There was also a two-kilometre tailback at the southern end.

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Swiss unemployment above northern european average

2019-04-14

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2019-04-14

Switzerland is often assumed to have low unemployment. However, there are many countries in Europe with lower rates. There are several ways to measure unemployment. The official measure in Switzerland is focused on those officially registered as unemployed still collecting unemployment benefits, a measure that delivers a lower figure than the one calculated by the International Labour Organisation (ILO).

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Swiss test finds toxic substances in e-cigarettes

2019-04-14

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2019-04-14

Testing commissioned by Blue Cross, a Swiss organisation focused on helping those with addictions, found toxic substances in the Iqos electronic cigarette produced by Philip Morris, according to the newspaper 20 Minutes.

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Assange and the Unforgivable Sin of Disemboweling Official Narratives

2019-04-14

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2019-04-14

S-Curve of Expansion, Maturation, Stagnation and Collapse
There is really only one unforgivable sin in the political realm, and that's destroying the official narrative by revealing the facts of the matter. This is why whistleblowers who make public the secret machinery of the elaborately artful lies underpinning all official narratives are hounded to the ends of the Earth.

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Blind Faith vs. the Bottom Line

2019-04-13

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2019-04-13

Dow Jones Industrial Valuation 1984-2016
There is more than a little "let them eat brioche" in the blind faith that the masses' patience for pillage is infinite. We've reached an interesting moment in history where we each have a simple choice: we either go with blind faith or we go with the bottom line, i.e. the facts of the matter. So far, 2019 is the year of Blind Faith, as the charts below illustrate: the bottom line no longer matters.

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Swisscom forges ahead with 5G amid safety fears

2019-04-13

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2019-04-13

Telecoms operator Swisscom says it plans to cover 90% of Switzerland with “5G” fifth-generation mobile communications by the end of this year. “As soon as we have the concession for the new mobile frequencies, we will activate our networks,” Swisscom director Urs Schaeppi told the media on Wednesday. The networks were put in place in partnership with Swedish telecoms company Ericsson.

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