Tag Archive: $JPY

More Color on Japanese Capital Flows and the Euro

2018-06-07

by

2018-06-07

The euro put in a low on May 29 a little above $1.15. That is nearly a 10.5 cent decline since the three-year high was set in mid-February. The thing that is difficult for investors and analysts to get their head around is that the speculators in the futures market, who as seen as proxies for trend-followers and momentum traders, continue to carry large euro exposure.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Macro Matters Now, Just Not the Data

2018-06-04

by

2018-06-04

The main concerns of investors do not arise from the high-frequency data that are due in the coming days. Last week, the somewhat firmer than expected preliminary May CPI for the EMU failed to bolster the euro. The stronger than expected US jobs data, even if tipped by the President of the United States, and the pendulum of market sentiment swinging back in favor of two more Fed rate hikes this year did not trigger new dollar gains.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 01: Ironic Twists to End the Tumultuous Week

2018-06-01

by

2018-06-01

The week is ending quite a bit different than it began. The main banking concern is not in Italy but in German, where shares in Deutsche Bank shares fell to a record low yesterday, and S&P Global cut its credit rating one step to BBB+ (third-lowest investment grade).

Read More »

FX Daily, May 31: Don’t Confuse Calmer Markets with Resolution

2018-05-31

by

2018-05-31

The global capital markets that were in panic mode on Tuesday stabilized yesterday, and corrective forces have carried into today's activity. However, the underlying issues in Italy and Spain are hardly clarified in the past 48 hours. Moreover, the US push on trade is intensifying again.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 30: Italian Reprieve, Euro Bounces, Trade Tensions Rise

2018-05-30

by

2018-05-30

After what could be described as a 15-sigma event yesterday in the Italian bond market, a reprieve today has seen the euro recover a cent from yesterday's lows. While the political situation in Italy is worrisome, many observers suspect that the new banking rules exacerbated the illiquidity that explains outsized moves.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 25: US Dollar Loses Momentum Ahead of the Weekend

2018-05-25

by

2018-05-25

The euro and sterling were sold through yesterday's lows in Asia, but rebounded in Europe, with the help of mildly constructive data in the form of the German IFO and details of UK Q1 GDP. The IFO climate measure matched the April reading and thereby snapped a five-month slide. The expectations component slipped, but the current assessment improved.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 24: Greenback Pushes Lower

2018-05-24

by

2018-05-24

The US dollar is pulling back after recording new highs for the year against the euro and sterling. The greenback is lower against nearly all the major currencies, but the Canadian dollar. It is also softer against most of the emerging market currencies. The chief exception is the Turkish lira. Yesterday's 300 bp rate hike could only stem the rot momentarily and the lira's 2.3% decline today, wipes out 2/3 of the annual rate increase.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 23: Dollar and Yen Surge, European Data Disappoints

2018-05-23

by

2018-05-23

The US dollar has extended its gains against most of the major currencies. Momentum, positioning, and divergence continue to drive it. The euro briefly traded a little below $1.17, an important technical area and has enjoyed a bounce in late morning turnover in Europe.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Dollar Power

2018-05-21

by

2018-05-21

There are several trends in the capital markets at a high-level. The euro and yen's decline has coincided with sustained rallies in European and Japanese equity benchmarks. Emerging market equities and currencies have been trending lower.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 18: EUR/CHF Continues the Collapse

2018-05-18

by

2018-05-18

The US dollar is mostly firmer. US yields have stabilized. Asian equities were mostly higher, while European bourses are struggling. Oil prices are steady. There have been a number of sustained trends in the markets that we have been monitoring. The euro, for example, has fallen each day this week. It recorded its low for the year on Wednesday near $1.1765.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 16: US Yields Soften After Yesterday’s Surge

2018-05-16

by

2018-05-16

The US dollar is mixed today after the Dollar Index rose to new 2018 highs yesterday.  It is being driven by rising US rates, which also punishes short dollar positions. The US 10-year yield rose seven basis points yesterday to nearly 3.10%.  It is consolidating near 3.06% now.  Many see the yield rising toward 3.20%, which would match the mid-2011 high.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 15: Firm US Rates Underpin Greenback

2018-05-15

by

2018-05-15

US 10-year rates are again probing the air above 3%, and this is encouraging a push back toward JPY110, with the euro slipping toward $1.19.  Asian equities fell, with the MSCI Asia Pacific shedding 0.8%, the most in nearly a month, snapping a three-day advance. China and India were able to buck the regional move. China's economic data was mostly softer than expected and is consistent with a gradual turn in the cycle as the Lunar New effect fades.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 14: US Dollar Slips in Quiet Turnover

2018-05-14

by

2018-05-14

The US dollar is sporting a softer profile against most of the major and emerging market currencies to start the new week. It already seemed to be tiring in the second half of last week. With today's mild losses, Dollar Index is off for a fourth consecutive session, the longest losing streak in over a month. The US and China appear to have taken measure to diffuse the trade tensions between the world's two largest economies.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Fed Can Look Through the Data Easier than the ECB and BOJ

2018-05-14

by

2018-05-14

Geopolitical issues will continue to bubble below the surface for the capital markets. The fallout from the reimposition of US sanctions on Iran has apparently helped lift oil prices in the face of the rising dollar, which often acts as a drag. In the coming days, the US will take the symbolic step of moving its embassy to Jerusalem.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 11: Dollar Momentum Sapped, Near-Term Pullback Likely

2018-05-11

by

2018-05-11

The US dollar pulled back following yesterday's slightly softer than expected CPI report and this likely marks the beginning of a new phase, with the dollar moving lower. Investors have learned over the past two weeks that neither wages nor consumer prices are accelerating. There is little reason in the recent string of data or official comments to suggest a more hawkish path for monetary policy (e.g., four rate hikes this year).

Read More »

FX Daily, May 10: Kiwi Tumbles on Dovish RBNZ, While Sterling Goes Nowhere Ahead of BOE

2018-05-10

by

2018-05-10

The US dollar is consolidating in narrow trading against most of the major currencies as participants digest several developments ahead of what was expected to be the highlight today, the BOE meeting and US April CPI. The greenback's consolidation is giving it a heavier bias against most of the major currencies. The recently strong upside momentum has stalled, but the losses are modest and the euro and sterling are inside yesterday's ranges.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 09: Oil Prices Surge and Dollar Gains Extended Post Withdrawal Announcement

2018-05-09

by

2018-05-09

The US dollar is broadly higher as the 10-year yield probes above 3.0%. Disappointing French industrial production and manufacturing data for March provided additional incentive, as if it were needed, to extend the euro's losses. The euro dipped below $1.1825. The single currency is off a cent this week after falling nearly two last week. A 38.2% retracement of the euro's gains since the beginning of last year is found a little above $1.1700 and...

Read More »

FX Daily, May 08: Dollar Races Ahead

2018-05-08

by

2018-05-08

The US dollar's surge continues. The Dollar Index is testing the space above 93.00. A month ago it was below 90. It does not appear to require fresh developments. The market continues to trade as if there are short dollar positions that are trapped at higher levels and the briefest and shallow pullbacks are new opportunities to adjust positions.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 07: Greenback Starts Week on Firm Note

2018-05-07

by

2018-05-07

The US dollar recovered from a softer tone in early Asia and is higher against nearly all the major and emerging market currencies as North American market prepare to start the new week. The news stream is light and investors remain on edge geopolitical concerns remain elevated. Oil prices are extending gains, and WTI is above $70 a barrel for the first time since November 2014. Alongside an inverse yield curve, a jump in oil prices typically...

Read More »

Look Past Disappointing Jobs Data, Luke

2018-05-05

by

2018-05-05

The US jobs report was broadly disappointing. However, the Federal Reserve will look through it and investors should too. A June hike is still by far the most likely scenario. The US created 164k net new jobs in April, and when coupled with the 32k upward revision in March, it was near expectations.

Read More »