Tag Archive: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

Worry Walls Don’t Explain Repeated Falls

2022-04-09

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2022-04-09

Someone once said that the stock market is always climbing a wall of worry. Maybe that had been true in some long-ago day, but whether or not it might nowadays is beside the point. The nugget of truth which makes the prosaism memorable is the wall rather than the climber. There’s always something going on somewhere to get worked up over.

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There Have Actually Been Some Jobs Saved, Only In Place of Recovery

2020-12-04

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2020-12-04

IHS Markit US Manufacturing, 2012-2020
The ISM reported a small decline in its manufacturing PMI today. The index had moved up to 59.3 for the month of October 2020 in what had been its highest since September 2018. For November, the setback was nearly two points, bringing the headline down to an estimate of 57.5.

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FX Daily, June 3: Dollar is Sold and ROW is bought

2020-06-03

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2020-06-03

Overview: Two recent trends continue.  Equities are moving higher, and the dollar remains heavy.  Equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rose at least one percent, and South Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia rallied 2-3%.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up more than 1% for the third consecutive session.  US shares are trading higher and are poised to extend their recent run.

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More Trends That Ended 2019 The Wrong Way

2020-01-08

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2020-01-08

US Trade, SA 2016-2019
Auto sales in 2019 ended on a skid. Still, the year as a whole wasn’t nearly as bad as many had feared. Last year got off on the wrong foot in the aftermath of 2018’s landmine, with auto sales like consumer spending down pretty sharply to begin it. Spending did rebound in mid-year if only somewhat, enough, though, to add a little more to the worst-is-behind-us narrative which finished off 2019.

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Manufacturing Clears Up Bond Yields

2020-01-07

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2020-01-07

Federal Reserve Regional Manu. PMI, 2016-2019
Yesterday, IHS Markit reported that the manufacturing turnaround its data has been suggesting stalled. After its flash manufacturing PMI had fallen below 50 several times during last summer (only to be revised to slightly above 50 every time the complete survey results were tabulated), beginning in September 2019 the index staged a rebound jumping first to 51.1 in that month.

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FX Daily, January 03: Geopolitics Saps Risk Appetite

2020-01-03

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2020-01-03

Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has threatened "severe retaliation" for the US attacked that killed an important head of a force within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. At the same time, reports indicate that North Korea's Kim Jong Un is no longer pledging to halt its nuclear weapons testing and has threatened to unveil a new weapon. Meanwhile, Turkish forces have reportedly entered Libya.

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ISM Spoils The Bond Rout!!! Again

2019-10-05

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2019-10-05

Eurodollar Futures June 2020
For the second time this week, the ISM managed to burst the bond bear bubble about there being a bond bubble. Who in their right mind would buy especially UST’s at such low yields when the fiscal situation is already a nightmare and becoming more so? Some will even reference falling bid-to-cover ratios which supposedly suggests an increasing dearth of buyers.

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United States: The ISM Conundrum

2019-09-05

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2019-09-05

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, Markit Manufacturing PMI and GDP, July 2012 - August 2019
Bond yields have tumbled this morning, bringing the 10-year US Treasury rate within sight of its record low level. The catalyst appears to have been the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI. Falling below 50, this widely followed economic indicator continues its rapid unwinding.

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FX Daily, September 03: Pound Punished in High Drama

2019-09-03

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2019-09-03

A showdown between UK Prime Minister Johnson and Parliament over Brexit pushed sterling below $1.20. The euro is extended its losses after finishing last week below $1.10. Growth concerns are seeing equities retreat. Japanese and Chinese shares managed to eke out gains, but the Asia Pacific and European stocks have been sold.

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US Industrial Downturn: What If Oil and Inventory Join It?

2019-08-16

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2019-08-16

Industrial Production, NSA 2006-2019
Revised estimates from the Federal Reserve are beginning to suggest another area for concern in the US economy. There hadn’t really been all that much supply side capex activity taking place to begin with. Despite the idea of an economic boom in 2017, businesses across the whole economy just hadn’t been building like there was one nor in anticipation of one.

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Just The One More Boom Month For IP

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Industrial Production, SA 1995-2018
The calendar last month hadn’t yet run out on US Industrial Production as it had for US Retail Sales. The hurricane interruption of 2017 for industry unlike consumer spending extended into last September. Therefore, the base comparison for 2018 is against that artificial low. As such, US IP rose by 5.1% year-over-year last month. That’s the largest gain since 2010.

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FX Daily, April 02: Monday Blues

2018-04-02

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2018-04-02

The US dollar drifted a little lower in Asia to start the week while equities had a slightly heavier bias. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1%. European bourses are mostly closed for the extended Easter holiday, while the S&P is set to start the new quarter about 0.3% lower. Although the subdued price action may not reflect it, there have been several new economic reports and developments.

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FX Daily, March 01: USD Snaps 3-Month Slide, Firm Ahead of Powell Part II

2018-03-01

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2018-03-01

The US dollar rebounded last September and October before the downtrend resumed in November, and lasted through January. The dollar gained broadly last month, except against the yen, which rose almost 2.4% in February. This pattern is evident today, the first trading day of March. The dollar is extending its gains against most currencies but is only managing to consolidate in a narrow range against the yen.

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FX Daily, February 01: Fed’s Hawkish Hold Keeps Dollar Consolidation Intact

2018-02-01

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2018-02-01

The Yellen Fed ended on a high note. She took over the reins the of Federal Reserve an implemented a strategic normalization process monetary policy, and helped engineer not only the first post-crisis rate hikes but also the beginning of unwinding its balance sheet. Most reckon she has done an admirable job at the Federal Reserve, not only in terms of the economic performance on her watch but also the nimble execution policy.

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FX Daily, January 03: Dollar Stabilizes, but Sees Little Recovery

2018-01-03

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2018-01-03

The US dollar is stabilizing but the tone remains fragile. The euro, which has advanced for five consecutive sessions coming into today is slightly lower. The euro had stalled yesterday as it approached last year's high set in September near $1.2090. Yesterday was also the third consecutive close above the upper Bollinger Band, which is found today near $1.2060.

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FX Daily, December 01: Dollar Consolidates Weekly Gain, while Equities Ease to Start New Month

2017-12-01

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2017-12-01

The release of the manufacturing PMIs confirm that the synchronized global expansion remains intact. The focus today is on three unresolved political challenges: US tax reform, the UK-Irish border and the talks that may produce another grand coalition in Germany. The US dollar is mixed, with the dollar-bloc currencies and Scandis pushing higher.

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FX Daily, October 02: Dollar Upbeat to Start Fourth Quarter

2017-10-02

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2017-10-02

The US dollar is broadly higher as the quarter-end positioning losses seen at the end of last week area reversed. Developments in the US are seen as dollar positive, while the Catalonia-Madrid conflict, and slightly softer EMU manufacturing PMI weighs on the euro. The UK also reported a disappointing manufacturing PMI, and more differences with the Tory government are taking a toll on sterling. Japan's Tankan Survey was stronger than expected, but...

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Global PMI Roundup; August 2017

2017-09-10

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2017-09-10

Stanbic Bank Kenya PMI, Jan 2014 - 2017
The first few days of any calendar month are now flooded with PMI data. Mostly due to Markit’s ongoing and increasing partnerships, we now have access to economic or business sentiment from and for almost anywhere in the world. It isn’t clear, however, if that is a good or useful development. For example, we can see quite plainly that there is a whole bunch of trouble brewing in Kenya. The Stanbic Bank/Markit Kenya PMI fell to a record low 42.0 in...

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FX Daily, August 01: The Most the Dollar Can Hope for on Turn Around Tuesday is Consolidation

2017-08-01

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2017-08-01

After taking a step lower in the North American session yesterday, the dollar is consolidating today. The euro is holding above $1.18, and the dollar held JPY110.00. Global equities are mostly higher, while bonds are mixed. Asia-Pacific yields were mostly higher, while European rates are a little lower. The US 10-year yield is flat just below 2.30%.

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Dollars And Sent(iment)s

2017-06-09

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2017-06-09

ISM Manufacturing PMI, July 2014 - May 2017
Both US manufacturing PMI’s underwhelmed just as those from China did. The IHS Markit Index was lower than the flash reading and the lowest level since last September. For May 2017, it registered 52.7, down from 52.8 in April and a high of 55.0 in January. Just by description alone you can appreciate exactly what pattern that fits. The ISM Manufacturing PMI was slightly higher in May than April, 54.9 versus 54.8, but still down from a February peak...

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