Tag Archive: Gold

The Cyclical and Exchange-Rate Induced Chinese Slowing

2013-06-09

We believe in the Chinese economy, but it has just gone into a cyclical and a exchange-rate induced slowing. Any Cassandra views like recently by Charles Dumas, chief strategist of Lombard Research, but also some of Richard Koo’s earlier views, that there will be a burst of the Chinese housing bubble, are exaggerated. Markets Insight: …

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Ageing and Immigration in the U.S. and Japan and the New Normal

we slowly move into an inflationary environment and prices of German Bunds and US Treasuries are falling.... ECB and Fed interest rates seem to be nailed to zero for years.

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Pictet Become “Secular Dollar Bulls” and Gold Bashers: Our Response

2013-06-01

by George Dorgan

2013-06-01

Precisely at the moment when the dollar undergoes a secular bashing with a 6% loss against the yen and 3% against the euro, Pictet publish their “secular dollar bull era” video and recommend investors to avoid gold. “Secular movements” in currency markets are mostly driven by current account (CA) surpluses or deficits, while housing …

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EUR/CHF to 1.25?

2013-04-22

by George Dorgan

2013-04-22

Chinese economy is weaker, the Brent oil price under 100$ , the German DAX near 7500, the USD/JPY near 100, the Australian dollar is dipping. Most assets that are positively correlated to CHF are weaker. Time for EUR/CHF to rise?

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“SNB Concerned”: Does a Yes to the Swiss Gold Referendum Imply an End of the CHF Cap?

If the upcoming referendum "Save our Swiss gold" wins, the SNB must increase gold holdings from 10% to 20% of its balance sheet. Gold purchases and/or sales of fiat money implies an end of CHF cap.

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Seasonal Factors on Gold, the 19 February Short Trade

Gold came under pressure in early February when stock market strength but also U.S. gas prices rose. US purchases, however, help to improve foreign economies and therefore also the gold price.

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The “Get Stress in May and Relax in October Effect” for the SNB

The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and March. The SNB should use the moment to sell some currency reserves. From May on, the typical seasonal effects will push the SNB into a defense.

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SNB Profit 6 Billion CHF over the Year, 10.9 Billion Loss in Q4/2012

2013-01-17

by George Dorgan

2013-01-17

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) obtained a profit of around 6 billion francs for the year 2012 (full statement). The profit was reduced from 16.9 billion francs between Q1 and Q3 2012, which means that in Q4/2012 the bank had a loss of around 10.9 billion francs. The profit in gold fell from 6.2 billion …

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German Currency and Gold Reserves and the German Trade Surplus

2013-01-17

by George Dorgan

2013-01-17

During the Bretton Woods system, Germany managed to obtain current account surpluses. They converted these surpluses into gold. At the time they bought it at 35$ per ounce at a relatively cheap price – at the end of the 1960s the price was augmented to 42$. At the end of the 1960 and with …

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Gold Tells the History of the 20th Century

Gold value and tons per country reserves US Canada Japan Swiss Netherland UK Russia France Italy

Quantitative Easing, Gold and the Swiss Franc

2012-12-27

by George Dorgan

2012-12-27

The main drivers of demand for Swiss francs are the euro crisis, but even more, the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of further bad US economic data and of Quantitative Easing. This will push down the dollar, and safe-havens like the CHF, gold or the Japanese Yen up. … Continue reading »

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Correlations Between the Swiss Franc, Gold and the German Economy

2012-12-21

by George Dorgan

2012-12-21

In yesterday’s post we focused on several economic events that weakened the position of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). In this extended replacement post, we give several reasons for recent movements in the gold price and explain the correlation between German economic data, gold and the Swiss franc. IFO data shows that Germany will not …

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Gold, CHF, Brent Arbitrage Trading after Negative CS, UBS Interest Rates

2012-12-01

by George Dorgan

2012-12-01

Credit Suisse and UBS will charge negative interests for cash clearing clients above a threshold. Last year such news was worth 250 bps, on December 3 only 28 bips. One remembers August 26, 2011, when UBS only spoke of negative interests and consequently EUR/CHF rose from 1.1420 to 1.1688. At the time FX traders …

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Seasonal Factors on Oil

Evidence from simple tests supports perhaps some belief that crude oil tends to have strong and weak months of the year, Q4 is often the weakest quarter and Q1 and Q2 the best.

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SNB Results Q3 2012: SNB Radically Reduces Euro Share from 60% to 48%

2012-11-02

by George Dorgan

2012-11-02

snb q3 breakdown in currencies usd eur gbp

SNB Q3 Profits: 10 billion francs The Swiss National Bank (SNB) radically reduced its euro share, in the third quarter from 60% to 48%, and bought US dollars and sterling instead. In the second quarter, however, it increased the euro share from 51% to 60% and concentrated on buying euros. Given that the EUR/USD was … Continue reading...

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IMF Data: SNB Forex Reserves and Gold in September 2012

2012-10-12

by George Dorgan

2012-10-12

This link on the SNB website shows the data the central bank provides to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It shows the SNB Forex and gold reserves in the last month. It is so-called “IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SNB Data)” It is released together with the international investment position, some monetary aggregates and the balance of payments two weeks after …

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Marc Faber: Assets are overpriced, we short metals and Brent now

2012-10-11

by George Dorgan

2012-10-11

As we predicted on October 5 or one day later on DailyFX, metals have started their descent, silver lost one dollar, from levels around 35$ last week to 34$ now. Marc Faber joins our view and says that asset prices are quite vulnerable. “I’m not 100% in cash, for the simple reason that I could … Continue reading »

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Isn’t it wonderful to trade with a strong central bank behind you?

2012-09-13

by George Dorgan

2012-09-13

Isn’t it wonderful to have a strong central bank like the SNB sitting behind you when trading Forex? Losses are limited to the floor of 1.20 and in the meantime you can gain forward swaps with the higher euro zone interest rates. Today the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided in its monetary policy assessment …

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