Tag Archive: GDP

Hopefully Not Another Three Years

2017-05-19

The stock market has its earnings season, the regular quarterly reports of all the companies that have publicly traded stocks. In economic accounts, there is something similar though it only happens once a year. It is benchmark revision season, and it has been brought to a few important accounts already. Given that this is a backward looking exercise, that this season is likely to produce more downward revisions shouldn’t be surprising.

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This Is Not Expansion

2017-05-06

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-05-06

Back in October, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released GDP figures that suggested what those behind “reflation” had hoped. After a near miss to start 2016, the economy had shaken off the effects of “transitory” weakness, mainly manufacturing and oil, poised to perform in a manner consistent with monetary policy rhetoric.

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Assessing China’s Economic Risks

2017-04-18

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-04-18

First quarter GDP in China rose 6.9%, better than expected and above the government’s target (6.5%) for 2017. It stands to reason, however, that if Communist officials thought they could get 6.9% to last for the whole year they would have made it their target, especially since 6.5% would be less than the GDP growth rate for 2016 (6.7%). In only that one way is China’s GDP statistic meaningful.

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Ending The Fed’s Drug Problem

2017-04-02

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-04-02

GDP Corp Profits After Tax, Jan 2010 - 2017

Gross Domestic Product was revised slightly higher for Q4 2016, which is to say it wasn’t meaningfully different. At 2.05842%, real GDP projects output growing for one quarter close to its projected potential, a less than desirable result. It is fashionable of late to discuss 2% or 2.1% as if these are good numbers consistent with a healthy economy.

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China Starts 2017 With Chronic, Not Stable And Surely Not ‘Reflation’

2017-03-15

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-03-15

The first major economic data of 2017 from China was highly disappointing to expectations of either stability or hopes for actual acceleration. On all counts for the combined January-February period, the big three statistics missed: Industrial Production was 6.3%, Fixed Asset Investment 8.9%, and Retail Sales just 9.5%.

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Some Notes On GDP Past And Present

2017-03-01

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-03-01

GDP PCE Deflator QQ YY, January 2009 - April 2016

The second estimate for GDP was so similar to the first as to be in all likelihood statistically insignificant. The preliminary estimate for real GDP was given as $16,804.8 billion. The updated figure is now $16,804.1 billion. In nominal terms there was more variation, where the preliminary estimate of $18,860.8 billion is now replaced by one for $18,855.5 billion.

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Brazil: Continuing Problems

2017-02-13

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-02-13

Brazil Industrial Production 1975 - 2016

The cruelest part, perhaps, of this economic condition globally is how it plays against type. In all prior cycles, economies of all kinds and orientations all over the globe would go into recession and then bounce right of it once at the bottom. It was often difficult to see the bottom, of course, but once recovery happened there was no arguing against it.

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Jobless Claims Look Great, Until We Examine The Further Potential For What We Really, Really Don’t Want

2017-02-10

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-02-10

Initial Jobless Claims, January 1967 - January 2017

Initial jobless claims fell to just 234k for the week of February 4, nearly matching the 233k multi-decade low in mid-November. That brought the 4-week moving average down to just 244k, which was a new low going all the way back to the early 1970’s. Jobless claims seemingly stand in sharp contrast to other labor market figures which have been suggesting an economic slowdown for nearly two years.

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Great Graphic: GDP Per Capita Selected Comparison

2016-08-24

by Marc Chandler

2016-08-24

US population growth has been greater than other major centers that helps explain why GDP has risen faster. GDP per capita has also growth faster than other high income regions. The US recovery is weak relative to post-War recoveries but it has been faster than anticipated after a financial crisis and shows little evidence of secular stagnation.

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Great Graphic: How the US Recovery Stacks Up

2016-07-27

by Marc Chandler

2016-07-27

The US recovery may have surpassed the 2001 recovery in Q2. Though disappointing, the recovery has been faster than average from a balance sheet crisis. Although slow, it is hard to see the secular stagnation in the data.

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FX Daily, June 28: Markets Stabilize on Turn Around Tuesday

2016-06-29

by Marc Chandler

2016-06-29

The global capital markets are stabilizing for the first time since the UK referendum. It is not uncommon for markets to move in the direction of underlying trends on Friday's; see follow-through gains on Monday, and a reversal on Tuesday. That is what is happening today.

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The Fed Doomsday Device

2016-06-21

by Bill Bonner

2016-06-21

Debt is just the flip side of credit. As debt goes bad, credit disappears. And then the system that created so much credit-money will go into reverse, destroying the nation’s money supply. The money supply (actually, the supply of ready credit) will shrink – suddenly and dramatically. And what should have been a minor, routine pullback in the economy will become a catastrophic panic.

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The Power Elite: Bumbling Incompetents

2016-05-28

by Bill Bonner

2016-05-28

Is there any smarter group of homo sapiens on the planet? Or in all of history? We’re talking about Fed economists, of course. Not only did they avoid another Great Depression by bold absurdity…giving the economy more of the one thing of which it clearly had too much – debt. They also carefully monitored the economy’s progress so as to avoid any backsliding into normalcy.

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Kuroda-San in the Mouth of Madness

2016-05-14

by Pater Tenebrarum

2016-05-14

Deluded Central Planners Zerohedge recently reported on an interview given by Lithuanian ECB council member Vitas Vasiliauskas, which demonstrates how utterly deluded the central planners in the so-called “capitalist” economies of the West have bec...

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Retirement Torpedoes and Democracy

2016-05-14

by Bill Bonner

2016-05-14

Bonner compares Total credit market debt, federal government debt and GDP – an economy running on debt, and now running on empty.

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Swiss GDP 2014 +1.9%. Trade Surplus Contributed More than Half, Consumption Lagged

According to the figures of Swiss Statistics, the Swiss trade surplus rose by 10.4% in 2014. Therefore its contribution to the 2014 real GDP is higher than 50%. Private consumption lagged compared to the other components of Gross Domestic Product.

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(12) FX Rates, Contrarian Investments and the Misleading Concept Called GDP

We extended our existing post to contrarian investing. It was published on Seeking Alpha and awarded the Editor's Pick. Gross Domestic Product(ion) is (or has become) a measurement of activity and consumption, but not of capital accumulation and production. In many cases, GDP growth is negatively correlated to saving. Higher savings (aka austerity) leads to lower GDP growth today, but to higher GDP in the future. In its worst case, GDP growth...

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Heterodox Economic Theories and GDP

Heterodox economic theories focus on the human desires to spend, to save, to obtain credit in order to anticipate spending and future earnings, to increase or to reduce debt or even to deplete existing savings, on human behaviour. Those theories neither think that humans are rational nor that markets are efficient.

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The Misleading Concept Called GDP

GDP is (or has become) a measurement of activity and consumption but not of capital accumulation and production. In many cases, GDP is negatively correlated to savings. Higher savings (aka austerity) lead to lower GDP today, but higher GDP in the future. In its worst case, GDP growth could be completely based on credit, eliminating the capital basis of a country (example Greece). Western countries saw rising housing investments based on more...

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