Tag Archive: $EUR

FX Daily, August 06: Sterling’s Drop Paces Dollar Gains

2018-08-06

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2018-08-06

The US dollar edged higher against most of the major currencies, and emerging market currencies are heavier. Sterling's quarter percent drop makes it the weakest of the majors in slow turnover and it was sufficient to record a new 11-month low.

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FX Weekly Preview: Dog Days of August Begin

2018-08-06

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2018-08-06

With most of the major central bank meetings and important economic data out of the way, the dog days of August are upon us. In terms of drivers, it means that players will have to look elsewhere for inspiration and it means that market liquidy is likely not at its best.

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FX Daily, August 03: Greenback Remains Firm Ahead of Jobs, JGBs Stabilize, Italian Debt Moves into Spotlight

2018-08-03

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2018-08-03

The US dollar is trading at the upper end of its recent ranges against the euro and sterling. The euro finished below $1.16 yesterday for the first time since the end of June and has not been able to resurface that level so far today.

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FX Daily, August 02: BOJ Surprises, BOE on Tap, Trade Worries Weigh on Stocks

2018-08-02

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2018-08-02

The Bank of England meeting concludes a run of major central bank meetings over the past fortnight. The BOE is widely expected to join the Bank of Canada in raising rates. The Federal Reserve and the ECB were content to do and say nothing new.

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FX Daily, August 01: Trade and Japan Drive Markets Ahead of Stand Pat Fed

2018-08-01

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2018-08-01

Investors recognize the risks to growth posed by the tariffs and counter-tariffs being imposed, but the way the US is going about it is also disconcerting. Within a few hours of signals that the US and China were looking to re-engage in high-level talks, which have not taken place for two months according to reports, the US signaled that the 10% tariff on $200 bln of Chinese goods could now face a 25% tariff instead.

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FX Daily, July 31: BOJ Prepares for QE Infinity

2018-07-31

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2018-07-31

The Japanese yen has been sold following the adjustments to policy and outlook by the BOJ that will allow the unconventional policies continue for an "extended period of time." Cross rate pressure and month-end demand have lifted the euro and sterling through yesterday's highs.

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FX Daily, July 30: Equities, Bonds, and the Dollar Start Week Softer

2018-07-30

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2018-07-30

The week's big events lie ahead. It is seen as the last important week before the dog days of summer when many participants will take holidays. The BOJ's two-day meeting concludes tomorrow. Speculation that the BOJ is looking for ways to tweak its program continues to spur a small taper-lite tantrum in Tokyo.

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FX Daily, July 27: Greenback Remains Firm Ahead of Q2 GDP

2018-07-27

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2018-07-27

The US dollar is trading firmly in Europe after consolidating yesterday's gains during the Asian session and ahead of the first look at Q2 GDP. Yesterday's economic reports, including durable goods orders and inventory data, saw the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker lower its forecast to 3.8% from 4.5%.

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FX Daily, July 26: Equities like EU-US Trade Truce more than the Euro

2018-07-26

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2018-07-26

The markets generated a collective sigh when Juncker and Trump announced that there would be no new tariffs while new trade negotiations took place.  This was particularly important because Trump reportedly wanted to press ahead with a 25% tariff on car imports.  It was also announced that the EU would buy more soy and liquid natural gas from the US. 

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Great Graphic: US 2-year Premium Grows and Outlook for G3 Central Banks

2018-07-26

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2018-07-26

Two-year differential between the US and Japan
A cry was heard last week when President Trump expressed displeasure with the Fed's rate hikes. Some, like former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, claimed that this was another step toward becoming a "banana republic." Jeffrey Sachs, another noted economist, claimed that "American democracy is probably one more war away from collapsing into tyranny."

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FX Daily, July 25: Narrow Ranges Prevail

2018-07-25

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2018-07-25

The US dollar is trapped in narrow trading ranges. That itself is news. At the end of last week ago, the US President seemed to have opened another front in his campaign to re-orient US relationships by appearing to talk the dollar down. Contrary to fears, and media headlines of a currency war, the dollar is fairly stable.

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Great Graphic: Is the Euro’s Consolidation a Base?

2018-07-25

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2018-07-25

EUR/BGN, daily
Speculators in the futures market are still net long the euro. They have not been net short since May 2017. In the spot market, the euro approached $1.15 in late-May and again in mid-June. Last week's it dipped below $1.16 for the first time in July and Trump's criticism of Fed policy saw it recover. Yesterday it reached $1.1750 before retreating. On the pullback, it held the 61.8% retracement of the recovery (~$1.1640).

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FX Daily, July 24: China Turns To Domestic Stimulus, Weighs on Yuan but Lifts Stocks

2018-07-24

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2018-07-24

Following a record injection via the medium-term lending facility yesterday, China's officials unveiled a set of policies designed to support the weakening economy that soon could face a substantial drag from US tariffs. The effort focuses on boosting domestic demand. Measures include targetted tax cuts and accelerating new infrastructure.

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FX Daily, July 23: Dollar Consolidates Trump-Inspired Losses, BOJ Resolve Tested

2018-07-23

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2018-07-23

US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin told G20 finance ministers and central bankers that President Trump was not trying to interfere in the foreign exchange market or encroach upon the Federal Reserve's independence. Trump's comments and tweets last Thursday and Friday effectively capped the dollar as it was looking to break out to the upside.

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FX Weekly Preview: It was Supposed to be a Quiet Week

2018-07-23

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2018-07-23

It was supposed to be a quiet week. The economic data and event calendar was light. There were three features, and none would likely disrupt the markets much. The first two are in Europe. The eurozone flash PMI for July, the first insight into how Q3 has begun. The PMI is expected to paint a mostly steady economic activity.

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Euro, Yen, and Equities: Reviewed

2018-07-21

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2018-07-21

US equities and the dollar appear to be moving higher together.  The greenback is near its best level this year against most of the major and emerging market currencies.  The Chinese yuan is not an exception to this generalization.  At the same time, the S&P 500 is at its best levels since the downdraft February, and the NASDAQ set a new record high earlier in the week. 

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FX Daily, July 20: Dollar Consolidates after Trump Wades In

2018-07-20

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2018-07-20

The US dollar is little changed but mostly softer as the week draws to a close. The market is digesting the implications of yesterday's comments by President Trump about interest rates and foreign exchange, and without fresh economic data, are content to go into the weekend. Since Trump's comments yesterday, the euro has not been below $1.1625 nor above $1.1680.

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FX Daily, July 19: Greenback Extends Gains

2018-07-19

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2018-07-19

The US dollar is extending its recent gains against most of the world's currencies.   We continue to see the most compelling case for the macro driver being the diverging policy mixes.  There are also more immediate factors too.  The surprisingly poor UK retail sales report, for example, managed to do what the Brexit chaos and softer than expected CPI fail to do. 

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FX Daily, July 18: Greenback Extends Gains-For Now

2018-07-18

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2018-07-18

After softening in Europe yesterday, the dollar recovered in the North American session with the help of assurances by Fed Chair Powell who reaffirmed the path gradual path despite clear recognition that tariffs threaten wages and growth.  The greenback has extended those gains today and is higher against all the emerging market currencies, expected the Turkish lira, which is slightly firmer.

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FX Daily, July 17: Dollar on Back Foot Ahead of Powell

2018-07-17

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2018-07-17

The US dollar eased in Asia session and the European morning. The greenback had appeared technically vulnerable, and the economic news stream is light. Sterling, unlike most of the other major currencies, remains within yesterday's range. Yesterday's high, a little above $1.3290, maybe reinforced a little today by the GBP245 mln $1.33 option that is expiring. Brexit concerns may also be acting as a drag.

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