Tag Archive: EUR/USD

FX Weekly Review, June 19 – June 24: Stronger Franc with Fading Euro Enthusiam

2017-06-25

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2017-06-25

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 24
Over the last month, the Swiss franc outpaced both EUR and USD. But the change is only little, the EUR fell by 0.60% and the dollar by 0.40%. The main reason for the stronger CHF is the fading enthusiasm after Macron's victory in the French elections and hence a weaker euro. Consequently SNB interventions are rising again.

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FX Weekly Review, June 12 – June 17: Greenback Still Trying To Turn

2017-06-19

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2017-06-19

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 17
Swiss Franc vs USD and EUR Rarely in the foreign exchange market is there a V-shaped extreme. Most of the time, the high or low is a process that is carved over time. Although the explanation of the dollar’s weakness here in H1 vary, we continue to believe that the longer-term cyclical rally, the third since … Continue reading »

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FX Weekly Review, June 05 – June 10: Sterling Leads Dollar Recovery

2017-06-11

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2017-06-11

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 10
The US Dollar has lost 4% against the franc since the beginning of May, while the euro is down only 1%. Most important events in this week were the ECB meeting and the UK elections. The inability of the Tory Party to secure a parliamentary majority spurred a sharp decline in sterling.

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Great Graphic: Another Look at US-German Rate Differentials

2017-06-09

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2017-06-09

Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate, May 2017
This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, depicts the interest rate differential between the US and Germany. The euro-dollar exchange rate often seems sensitive to the rate differential. The white line is the two-year differential and the yellow line is the 10-year differential.

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FX Weekly Review, May 29 – June 03: Dollar Dogged by Disappointing Data

2017-06-04

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2017-06-04

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 03
While the Euro traded in the range between 1.08 and 1.09, the dollar declined by nearly 3%. The technical indicators warn that the US dollar is stretched, but the combination of disappointing auto sales and jobs report may deny it the interest rate support needed to facilitate a resumption of the bull market.

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What Happened Monday

2017-05-31

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2017-05-31

No impact from the latest North Korean missile test. Polls suggest Tories still ahead for the June 8 election. Prospects of an Italian election this year weighed on Italian stocks and bonds.

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FX Weekly Review, May 22 – 27: Is the Dollar Going To Turn?

2017-05-29

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2017-05-29

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 27
The Swiss Franc recovered a lot of the losses that came with the French elections. That political event was mostly driven by speculators that will close their positions. We expected the EUR to trade around 1.07 to 1.0750 CHF in some time.

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Less Than Nothing

2017-05-25

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2017-05-25

Eurodollar Futures Dimensions, 2005 - 2007
As I so often write, we still talk about 2008 because we aren’t yet done with 2008. It doesn’t seem possible to be stuck in a time warp of such immense proportions, but such are the mistakes of the last decade carrying with them just these kinds of enormous costs.

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Four Numbers to Watch in FX

2017-05-24

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2017-05-24

The dollar's downside momentum faded today, but it has not shown that it has legs. Watch 96.45 in the DXY and $1.3055 in sterling. The US 2-year note yield is low, given expectations for overnight money. The US premium needs to widen.

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Merkel Sends Euro Higher

2017-05-22

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2017-05-22

Markel said the euro was too weak, so it rallied. This is not a new position for Germany. Merkel may now tack to the left since the AfD appears to have been dispatched. Look for Weidmann to begin moderating views or becoming less antagonistic.

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FX Weekly Review, May 15-20: Swiss Franc recovering against EUR

2017-05-21

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2017-05-21

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, 20 May 2017
The Swiss Franc recovered a lot of the losses that came with the French elections. That political event was mostly driven by speculators that will close their positions. We expected the EUR to trade around 1.07 to 1.0750 CHF in some time.

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FX Weekly Review, May 08-13: Euro rises far above 1.09 CHF, for how long?

2017-05-13

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2017-05-13

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, May 13
The euro rose up to 1.0980. How long this momentum will last is still the question, given that it is driven by this political event and sustained by SNB interventions.

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FX Weekly Review, May 01 – 06: Seasonal Patterns and Yen Crosses

2017-05-07

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2017-05-07

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 1M
The Swiss Franc index gained 1.5% in the last month, the biggest part of it is from the last week. The trade-weighted indices the Fed tracks are updated monthly. The Bank of England calculates the effective exchange rate on a daily basis. It has not fallen since April 24.

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FX Weekly Review, April 24 – 29: Dollar Remains the Fulcrum

2017-05-01

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2017-05-01

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 1M
Often the US dollar, as the numeraire, seems to be the main actor in the foreign exchange market. Other times, the dollar appears to be at the fulcrum between European currencies on one hand, and the dollar-bloc currencies on the other hand. Another way expressing this is whether there is a dollar-move underway or is it really more about the crosses.

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FX Weekly Review, April 17 – 22: Dollar Technicals Trying to Turn, but…

2017-04-23

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2017-04-23

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 22
While the dollar index had another bad week with a 0.75% less, the Swiss Franc currency index could accumulate the corresponding gains. Main reason is that the EUR/CHF rose over 1.07.

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FX Weekly Review, April 10-14: Swiss Franc loses against the Yen, but wins against Dollar

2017-04-16

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2017-04-16

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01
Last week the Swiss Franc improved against both euro and dollar, but - compared to its safe-haven counterpart Japanese Yen - it had a bad performance. We expect strong SNB interventions.

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FX Weekly Review, April 03-08: Dollar Recovery Can Continue, 10-year Yield Set to Rise

2017-04-10

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2017-04-10

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01
The US dollar appreciated against most of the major currencies last week. The Japanese yen was the chief exception. It rose about 0.5% as US yields remained heavy and equities were mostly softer. The Dollar Index did not fall in any session last week. It has had one losing session over the past nine, and that was the last day in March when the Dollar Index slipped less than 0.1%. It finished the week a bit above thee 61.8% retracement objective of...

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FX Weekly Review, March 27 – 31: Euro breaks down against USD and CHF

2017-04-02

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2017-04-02

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01
Weak inflation figures in the euro zone let the common currency fall against both the dollar and the Swiss franc. Still last week, the Swiss Franc index had some losses against the US dollar index.

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FX Weekly Review, March 20 – March 25: Dollar Bottom Near?

2017-03-26

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2017-03-26

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, 1m
In the last week, the Swiss Franc index recovered and gained about 2%. The dollar index lost 1.5%. Position adjustments: The dollar tended to trade heaviest against those currencies that speculators were short, like the euro, yen, and sterling.

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FX Weekly Review, March 13 – March 18: Fed Disappoints, Dollar Losses

2017-03-19

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2017-03-19

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 18
The failure of the Fed to signal an increased pace of normalization and the prospects of other central banks raising rates spurred dollar losses, which deteriorated its technical outlook.

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