Tag Archive: EUR/CHF

FX Weekly Review, November 07 – November 11: The Trump Reflation Trade

2016-11-13

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2016-11-13

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, November 04, 2016
The Swiss Franc Index rose sharply, shortly after the U.S. elections. But then the Trump reflation trade came. Trump may fulfills the wet dreams of many economists. With tax cuts he might extend the U.S. fiscal deficit up to 10% per year. This resulted in: Gains on U.S. stocks, inflows in U.S. Bonds, inflation hedges gold and Swiss Francs.

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FX Daily, November 11: Ramifications of Trump’s Election Continue to Drive Markets

2016-11-11

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2016-11-11

FX Performance, November 11 2016 Movers and Shakers
The forces unleashed by the US election results continue to drive the capitals markets. The combination of nationalism, reflation and deregulation are seen as good for US equities and the US dollar. It has not been so kind to US Treasuries, where the 10- and 30-year yield has risen about 32 bp this week coming into today's federal holiday that closes the bond market, while the stock market is open.

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FX Daily, November 10: US Dollar, Equities, and Commodities Firmer as Reflation Trade Takes Hold

2016-11-10

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2016-11-10

FX Performance, November 10 2016 Movers and Shakers
GBP/CHF rates spiked by almost two cents during Wednesday’s trading, providing those clients holding Sterling with some of the best rates they’ve seen in the past few weeks. This move came following confirmation that Donald Trump had won the race for the White House, news which sent shockwaves through the market. How the outcome will affect the global markets is difficult to analyse at this point but could yesterday’s positive spike indicate better...

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FX Daily, November 09: Mourning in America?

2016-11-09

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2016-11-09

FX Performance, November 09 2016 Movers and Shakers
Global capital markets have been roiled by Trump's stunning victory Swiss National Bank's Andrea Maechler promised interventions for the case that Trump wins the elections. It was probably not necessary. Only the EUR/CHF fell to 1.0753. Strangely the dollar and markets recovered.

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FX Daily, November 08: Consolidation Featured as Market Catches and Holds Breath

2016-11-08

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2016-11-08

FX Performance, November 08 2016 Movers and Shakers
The equity markets snapped their losing streak yesterday and are consolidating today. The US dollar is narrowly mixed. The euro and sterling are slightly firmer, but well within yesterday's ranges. The dollar-bloc is a bit lower, and once again the Australian dollar is struggling to sustain moves above $0.7700.

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THIS Time A Swiss Franc Hedge Makes More Sense

2016-11-08

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2016-11-08

Swiss Franc, Money Market Diverge
Money markets and the Swiss franc have diverged despite a presumed increase in event risk from the U.S. Presidential election. Moreover, shorts against the Swiss franc have risen. This surprising divergence opens up a presumed opportunity use the franc as a hedge against a surprise outcome from the election. This time I agree with the strategy even as I suspect that, once again, any subsequent incremental strength in the Swiss franc will be...

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FX Daily, November 07: Dollar Stabilizing After Bounce

2016-11-07

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2016-11-07

FX Performance, November 07 2016 Movers and Shakers
The DAX also gapped lower before the weekend and gapped higher today. It is stalling just ahead of the earlier gap from last week (10460-10508). It is up about 1.6% in late-morning turnover. The strongest sector is the financials, up 2.5%, with the banks up 3.4%. Deutsche Bank is snapping a five-session drop. It fell 9.1% last week. It has recouped more than half of that today.

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FX Weekly Review, October 31 – November 04: Dollar at Crossroads

2016-11-06

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2016-11-06

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, November 04, 2016
Swiss Franc Currency Index As visible in the graph, the Swiss Franc index recovered most of its losses against the US Dollar Index for the last 30 days. In the last 30 days, both the USD currency index and the CHF currency index have had a positive performance.

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FX Daily, November 04: US Jobs Figures: Another Time the Swiss Franc Strengthens

2016-11-04

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2016-11-04

FX Performance, November 03 2016
With the not convincing U.S. jobs number, both the EUR and, in particular, the Swiss Franc could improve. With continuing political uncertainty in the U.S., more speculators closed their short CHF positions

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FX Daily, November 03: Political Angst Drives Markets

2016-11-03

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2016-11-03

FX Performance, November 03 2016 Movers and Shakers
GBP/CHF rates are trading below 1.20 on the exchange, providing those clients holding CHF with some of the best rates they’ve seen in the past six years. The Pounds woes have been well documented but with a key day of economic data releases ahead, is it all about to change?

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FX Daily, November 02: Standpat FOMC Trumped by US Political Jitters

2016-11-02

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2016-11-02

FX Performance, November 02 2016 Movers and Shakers
The single biggest driver in the capital markets is the continued narrowing of the US election polls. The prospect of a Trump presidency and the dramatic changes that could entail is rattling investors and spurring position squaring.The dollar is broadly lower as are stocks. The surge in global yields has been arrested.

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SNB Line in Sand Breaks, EUR/CHF under 1.08

2016-11-02

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2016-11-02

EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc
We have always emphasized that the SNB intervenes between 1.08 and 1.0850. Even if there was no change in sight deposits the 1.08 "line in sand" broke.

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FX Daily, November 01: Dollar and Yen Slip in Quiet even if Eventful Turnover

2016-11-01

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2016-11-01

FX Performance, November 01 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is posting minor losses against most of the major currencies today.The Japanese yen is the exception, as the greenback continues to straddle JPY105. There have been several developments today, and the US also has a full economic calendar today. The most important of the developments was the upbeat message from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

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FX Daily, October 31: Respite for Market Nerves Lifts Peso, Rand, and US Dollar

2016-10-31

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2016-10-31

FX Performance, October 31 2016 Movers and Shakers
he latest US political news before roiled thin pre-weekend markets, but cooler heads and more of them are prevailing today. Trump's fortune in the polls had bottomed prior to the re-opening of the investigation into Clinton's emails and the national polls have narrowed.

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FX Weekly Review, October 24-28: October Surprise Pushes Open Door

2016-10-30

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2016-10-30

Swiss Franc Currency Index, October 22 2016
The Swiss Franc Index could recover some of the losses as compared to the US dollar index. Still the USD/CHF remains above 0.99. The US dollar rose against most of the major currencies last week, but the upside momentum appeared to be dissipating, even before the FBI's announcement about new Clinton emails. There are a few exceptions like the greenback's performance against the Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona. The dollar made new...

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FX Daily, October 28: Dollar Sidelined, Krona Stabilizes, Rates Firm

2016-10-28

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2016-10-28

FX Performance, October 28
The main development here in the last full week of October is the sharp rise in bond yields. US 10-year yields rose nine bp this week coming into today's session, which features the first look at Q3 GDP. The two-year yield is up four bp. European 10-year benchmark yields mostly rose 11-17 bp. UK Gilts were are the upper end of that range. Two-year yields are 3-5 bp higher.

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FX Daily, October 27: Rising Yields Continue to be the Main Driver

2016-10-27

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2016-10-27

FX Performance, October 27 2016 Movers and Shakers
The euro remains pinned near the seven-month low it recorded two days ago near $1.0850. It approached $1.0950 yesterday and has been confined to about a 15-tick range on either side of $1.0905 today. Against the yen, the dollar remains near the three-month high (~JPY104.85) also seen two days ago. New dollar buying emerged yesterday near JPY104.

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FX Daily, October 26: Euro and Yen Extend Recovery

2016-10-26

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2016-10-26

FX Performance, October 26, Movers and Shakers
After touching 1.08, which apparently the "new floor", the SNB moved the EUR/CHF upwards yesterday and Monday. Today's EUR recovery against USD, let also the EUR/CHF rise. The US dollar's upside momentum reversed in North America yesterday and has been sold in Asia and Europe. This seems like mostly position adjustments ahead of next week's FOMC, BOE and RBA meetings, in an otherwise subdued news period. The euro has at three-day highs. It has...

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FX Daily, October 25: Germany IFO, Dollar Going Nowhere

2016-10-25

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2016-10-25

FX Performance, October 25 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar has been confined to extremely narrow ranges against the euro, yen, and sterling. To the extent that there is much action in the foreign exchange market, it is with the dollar-bloc and emerging market currencies.The Canadian dollar was whipsawed by comments from the Bank of Canada.

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FX Daily, October 24: Dollar Begins Mostly Slightly Lower, and Risk is On to Start the Week

2016-10-24

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2016-10-24

FX Performance, October 24 2016 Movers and Shakers
Sterling vs the Swiss Franc has remained close to its lowest level in history caused by the aftermath of the Brexit vote back in June and more recently the announcement that Article 50 will be triggered by March 2017. Confidence in Sterling exchange rates has plummeted recently and until we get some form of assurances as to how the talks may go with the European Union we could see Sterling fall even further against the Swiss Franc than its current...

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