Tag Archive: EUR/CHF

FX Daily, July 9: No Turn Around Tuesday, as Equities Extend Losses and the Greenback Remains Firm

2019-07-09

by

2019-07-09

Overview:  Global equity benchmarks are headed for their third consecutive loss today as caution prevails at the start of Q3 after a strong first half.  Ten-year benchmark yields are edging higher after a soft start in Asia.  Italian bonds continue to outperform.  Greek bonds have been set back as the new government reiterated its commitment to ease fiscal commitments as if Tsipras did not try, and got a similar rebuff.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 8: Macro Monday

2019-07-08

by

2019-07-08

Overview: The capital markets have begun the week in a mixed note. Asia Pacific equities tumbled, led by 2%+ losses in China and South Korea, but European shares are edging higher, and a positive close would be the seventh in the past eight sessions. The S&P is little changed. Asia Pacific bond yields moved higher, as anticipated after the jump in US yields after the jobs data.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 05: Dollar is Bid Ahead of Jobs Report

2019-07-05

by

2019-07-05

Overview: The dovish response to news that Lagarde was nominated to replace Draghi was extended by the dismal German factory order report that has pushed the euro to new two-week lows and kept bond yields near record lows. The focus ahead of the weekend is squarely on the US employment data, where a second consecutive poor report will fan expectations for a large Fed cut to initiate an easing cycle.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 03: Yields Extend Decline

2019-07-03

by

2019-07-03

Overview: Interest rates are lurching lower.  The US 10-year yield is at new two-year lows, but the driver is European bonds where peripheral yields are 6-7 bp lower,  though Italy's benchmark is off 12 bp, while core yields are down 2-3 bp to new record lows.  The German benchmark is almost minus 40 bp, while the Swiss 10-year is beyond minus 100 bp.  Italy's two-year is breaking more convincingly below zero.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 2: Post-G20 Euphoria Fades, Stuck with Same Reality

2019-07-02

by

2019-07-02

Overview: The euphoria that greeted the resumption of US-China and US-North Korea talks has subsided. Global equities have turned mixed after yesterday's surge. Hong Kong played catch-up, and despite ongoing demonstrations, the Hang Seng rallied over one percent, and the Hong Kong Dollar strengthened beyond its band midpoint for the first time in nine months.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 28: The World may Look Different Come Monday

2019-06-28

by

2019-06-28

Overview: Quarter-end positioning seems to dominate today's activity. The outcome of bilateral talks at the G20 gathering partly reflects the influence of the US President who eschews multilateral efforts as a hindrance to its sovereignty.  Equities in Asia Pacific slipped today but held on to modest gains for the week.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 27: Ready. Set. Wait.

2019-06-27

by

2019-06-27

Overview: The approaching month/quarter-end and the G20 meeting dominate considerations. Although the S&P 500 closed on its lows for the third consecutive session yesterday, Asia Pacific equities liked the apparent increase in the prospect of a tariff freeze between the US and China and the pullback in the Japanese yen.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 25: Heightened Political Risks Weigh on Sentiment

2019-06-25

by

2019-06-25

Overview: It is far from clear that the US sanctions against nine Iranian officials, with the foreign minister to be added later brings negotiations any closer. At the same time, US officials trying to keep expectations low for the weekend meeting between Trump and Xi. The heightened political anxiety will have to make room for Fed Chairman Powell's talk in NY.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 20: Doves Rules the Roost Except in Oslo

2019-06-20

by

2019-06-20

Overview:  The prospect of "lower for longer" continues to fuel the bond and stock rally.  The initial US equity response to the Fed was positive but not strong and closed about 0.3% higher.  Asia Pacific equities followed suit with mostly modest gains, except for China and Hong Kong, where gains of more than 1% were recorded.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 19: Still Patient?

2019-06-19

by

2019-06-19

Overview:  Risk-taking was bolstered by the dramatic shift in Draghi's rhetoric less than two weeks after the ECB meeting and a Trump's tweet announcing that there was going to be an  "extended" meeting between him and Xi at the G20 meeting and that the respective staff would begin coordinating. It was later confirmed by the Chinese media.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 18: Draghi Ends Calm Ahead of FOMC, Sending the Euro and Yields Down

2019-06-18

by

2019-06-18

Overview:  ECB President Draghi underscoring the likely need for more stimulus broke the subdued tone as market participants took a "wait and see" stance ahead of tomorrow's FOMC decision.  Draghi's comments sent the euro through $1.12 for the first time in two weeks and drove European bonds yields to new lows.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 17: Quiet Start to Big Week

2019-06-17

by

2019-06-17

Overview: The global capital markets are off to a subdued start to what promises to be a busy week, featuring the FOMC, BOE, BOJ meetings, and the flash June PMIs. Investors also expect some signal whether Presidents Trump and Xi will at the G20 meeting later this month. Asian equities were narrowly mixed.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 14: Waning Risk Appetite Going into the Weekend

2019-06-14

by

2019-06-14

Overview:  Worries about an escalation in the Gulf following US accusations that Iran was behind yesterday's two attacks and weaker growth impulses, while trade tensions remain high, are dampening risk appetites ahead of the weekend.  Equities are lower.  Nearly all the stock markets in the Asia Pacific region fell today with Japan and Australia being the notable exceptions.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 13: Financial Statecraft or Whack-a-Mole

2019-06-13

by

2019-06-13

Overview: After roiling the markets by threatening escalating tariffs on Mexico, US President Trump has threatened China that if Xi does not meet him and return to the positions that the US claims it had previously, he will through on imposing tariffs to the remaining goods the US buys from China that have not already been penalized. 

Read More »

FX Daily, June 12: Anxiety Ticks Up, Risks Pared

2019-06-12

by

2019-06-12

Overview: The S&P 500 snapped a five-day advance yesterday and set the heavier tone for equities today.  Continued protests in Hong Kong were not shrugged off as they have been in the last couple of sessions.  The Hang Seng's nearly 1.9% decline was the largest in a month and led the region lower. 

Read More »

FX Daily, June 11: Markets Take Another Small Step Away from the Edge

2019-06-11

by

2019-06-11

Overview: The recovery in equities continues today in light news day.  Nearly all the bourses in the Asia Pacific region rose, led by a 2.6% gain of the Shanghai Composite. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for a third session. European equity benchmarks are rising for the sixth time in the past seven sessions.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 10: Collective Sigh of Relief Lifts Equities, Yields, and the Dollar

2019-06-10

by

2019-06-10

Overview: A global sigh of relief that the US will not tariff all its imports from Mexico.  Equities are all higher, and the weekend demonstrations in Hong Kong over a bill allowing extraditions to the mainland for the first time did not deter investors from bidding up the Hang Seng over 2.3%, the most this year.  European equities are following suit. 

Read More »

FX Daily, June 7: Jobs Data and Tariffs Dominate

2019-06-07

by

2019-06-07

Overview:  Global equities continue to recover from the recent slide.  Chinese and Hong Kong markets were on holiday today, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index eked out a minor gain and ensured that its four-week slide ended.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up about 0.7% through the European morning. 

Read More »

FX Daily, June 6: US Tariff Threats on Mexico Compete with ECB for Attention

2019-06-06

by

2019-06-06

Overview: The implications of President Trump's assessment that there has not been "nearly enough" progress in negotiations with Mexico that would avert the tariff on June 10 competing for investors' attention, which had been squarely today's ECB meeting. Minutes before Trump spoke Fitch cut its sovereign rating for Mexico to BBB from BBB+, while Moody's cut its outlook to negative from stable.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 05: Dollar Remains on Back Foot

2019-06-05

by

2019-06-05

Overview: The Federal Reserve's patience never excluded a rate cut should conditions warrant. The acknowledgment of this without signaling a change its stance is being seized upon to justify aggressive pricing of rates. At the same time, there has some tempering of trade anxiety on the margin that is also constructive. Asia and European equities were pulled higher after the strongest rally in several months in the US. 

Read More »