Tag Archive: Economics

THE FED’S CAPITULATION: WHAT IT MEANS FOR GOLD INVESTORS

2019-08-27

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2019-08-27

Fed's Capitulation - Claudio Grass
After the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy U-turn earlier this year and the central bank’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in a decade, mainstream investors and analysts believe that holding rates lower and for longer will help keep stock markets afloat and the economic expansion alive.

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Media questions EFTA deal timing

2019-08-26

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2019-08-26

“Playing with fire,” is the verdict of the Swiss press, in reaction to the free trade deal largely agreed between EFTA countries – among them Switzerland – and the Mercosur bloc, that includes Brazil. Questions have been raised over the timing of the agreement.

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“More of the same” at the ECB increases gold’s appeal

2019-08-22

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2019-08-22

“The intellectual leaders of the peoples have produced and propagated the fallacies which are on the point of destroying liberty and Western civilization.” Ludwig von Mises, Planned Chaos. It took multiple meetings and over 50 hours of official negotiations for EU leaders to reach an agreement on the appointments for the top jobs of the EU and the ECB, but in mid-July the results finally came in.

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In defense of Switzerland

2019-07-07

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2019-07-07

An interview with Prof. Angelo M. Codevilla. Following decades of the propagation of a false historical narrative regarding Switzerland’s role during WWII, an entire generation, especially in the West, has grown up with a distorted version of events, based on unfounded and unsubstantiated claims.

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THE PENALTY FOR SAVING

2019-05-30

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2019-05-30

In previous articles, we have outlined in great detail the many faults of the current monetary policy direction of major central banks and the large-scale economic impact of keeping interest rates artificially low. Among the worst offenders is the ECB, that is unapologetically persistent on continuing this exercise in absurdity that are negative interest rates.

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THE CURRENT MONETARY ORDER IS NEARING ITS END

2019-05-13

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2019-05-13

Interview with Dimitri Speck. Given the massive intervention and monetary manipulation experiment by central banks over the last decade, the amount of distortions created in the market, as well as the record debt accumulation at all levels of the economy, have given rise to considerable risks for investors. For a more detailed understanding of these issues and for his outlook, I turned to Dimitri Speck, a renowned expert in the development of...

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Sound money: A Biblical perspective – Part I

2019-04-03

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2019-04-03

Money and Gold
In today’s world, it is obvious that the competition of ideas is under serious threat and with it, the much-needed discussions on how to deal with certain topics or try to understand the world we live in. That is particularly worrying, especially when one considers that the western world went through the process of Enlightenment roughly 200 years ago. In the words of Immanuel Kant:

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Merger mania: Consolidation in the gold mining sector

2019-03-27

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2019-03-27

Metal Mergers 2008-2018
Late last year, Barrick Gold, the world’s largest gold miner in terms of reserves, made headlines when it announced its acquisition of Randgold Resources, in an $18bn mega-merger that marked a key moment for the mining industry. In January, United States gold giant Newmont and principal rival of Barrick, made public its own plans to buy Canada’s Goldcorp, the world’s third-largest bullion producer by market value, for $10 billion.

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Downturn Rising, German Industry

2019-03-12

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2019-03-12

US Treasury Yield Curve, Aug 2007 - Jan 2019
You know things have really changed when Economists start revising their statements more than the data. What’s going on in the global economy has quickly reached a critical stage. This represents a big shift in expectations, a really big one, especially in the mainstream where the words “strong” and “boom” couldn’t have been used any more than they were.

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ECB: running out of runway – Part II

2019-03-03

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2019-03-03

ECB Balance Sheet All Assets, 1999 - 2018
Overall, under Mr. Draghi’s watch, the ECB’s balance sheet has ballooned to a previously unimaginable scale and aggressive policies like the extensive QE program and negative rates have encouraged the accumulation of debt and heavily distorted market mechanisms.

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China: Harbinger of Global Economic Decline

2019-02-13

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2019-02-13

China's Slowing Economy
The latest numbers released by China’s statistics bureau fueled widespread concerns about the outlook of the global economy, as the Asian superpower reported its slowest growth rate since 1990. The figures showed a 6.6% growth for 2018, confirming the view that the growth engine of the world economy is running out of steam.

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Venezuela: when fiat money reaches its intrinsic value

2018-12-06

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2018-12-06

Hyperinflation Spiral, 2006-2018
Over the last years, Venezuela has become a modern poster child for the failure of socialism and with good reason. It offers an abundance of lessons and stern warnings for many western nations, but it also provides a very insightful and relevant reminder for individual investors too.

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Why Am I Fighting for the Gold Standard?

2018-08-31

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2018-08-31

Monetary Metals
Life is good. They could not have imagined what we have now, back in the dark ages. So I have never understood why people prep for a return to the dark ages. The only thing I can think of is that they don’t really picture what life is like. 14 hours a day of back-breaking labor to eke out a subsistence living. Subject to the risks of rain, sun, and insects.

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Aligning Politics To economics

2017-11-12

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2017-11-12

Real Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers, Jan 1983 - 2016
There is no argument that the New Deal of the 1930’s completely changed the political situation in America, including the fundamental relationship of the government to its people. The way it came about was entirely familiar, a sense from among a large (enough) portion of the general population that the paradigm of the time no longer worked. It was only for whichever political party that spoke honestly to that predicament to obtain long-term...

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The Savings Rate Conundrum

2017-11-08

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2017-11-08

Median Disposable Income and Debt Ratio, 1967 - 2015
The economy is booming. Employment is at decade lows. Unemployment claims are at the lowest levels in 40-years. The stock market is at record highs and climbing. Consumers are more confident than they have been in a decade. Wages are finally showing signs of growth.

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Dollar Surge Continues Ahead Of Jobs Report; Europe Dips As Catalan Fears Return

2017-10-07

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2017-10-07

CBOE VIX Gauge, 1990 - 2019
World stocks eased back from record highs and fell for the first time in eight days, as jitters about Catalonia’s independence push returned while bets on higher U.S. interest rates sent the dollar to its highest since mid August; S&P 500 futures were modestly in the red - as they have been every day this week before levitating to record highs - ahead of hurricane-distorted nonfarm payrolls data (full preview here). U.S. jobs report will also be...

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The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis

Accounts of the financial crisis leave out the story of the secretive deals between banks that kept the show on the road. How long can the system be propped up for? It is a decade since the first tremors of what would become the Great Financial Crisis began to convulse global markets. Across the world from China and South Korea, to Ukraine, Greece, Brexit Britain and Trump’s America it has shaken our economy, our society and latterly our politics.

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Reports on a Quarterly Survey Conducted: Qualifying Shortage (Labor)

2017-07-23

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2017-07-23

US Nonfarm Payrolls Missing
There isn’t a day that goes by in 2017 where some study is released or anecdote is published purporting a sinister labor market development. There is a shortage of workers, we are told, often a very big one. The idea is simple enough; the media has been writing for years that the US economy was recovering, and they would very much like to either see one and be proven right (and that recent revived populism is illegitimate), or find an excuse why...

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US Federal Funds, Bond Market and WSJ Economic Survey: The Hidden State of Money

2017-07-13

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2017-07-13

US WSJ Economic Forecast Survey
Correctly interpreting the bond market is more than just how and when to invest your money in UST’s. Not that it isn’t useful in such a money management capacity, but interest rates starting at the risk-free tell us a lot about what is wholly unseen. There is simply no way to directly observe inside an economy what is taking place at all levels and in all transactions. We try to estimate as best we can in the aggregate, but the real economy works...

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Necessity is the Mother of Invention – Retirees Desperate Reach for Yield

2017-06-10

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2017-06-10

Ben Bernanke’s creativity inspired a generation of economists and central bankers. QE, ZIRP and NIRP established a new class of economics that is mathematically sound but practically disastrous. Billions of dollars were transferred from savers to investors to boost the economy, but the wizards of quant forgot that something has to give. In this case, it was the formation of a pension crisis that threatens the golden years of millions of retirees...

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