Tag Archive: Daily News

Dollar Mixed as Markets Await Fresh Drivers

The virus news stream is mixed; the dollar continues to consolidate; US-China tensions continue to rise. US Treasury wraps up its quarterly refunding; April budget statement is a harbinger of things to come; the next round of stimulus will be contentious. We got some dovish BOE comments yesterday; UK continues to play Brexit hardball; UK data was slightly better than expected but awful nonetheless.

Read More »

Dollar Mixed as Doves Fly

Measures of cross-market implied volatility have been stable for a few weeks now. Weekly jobless claims are expected at 3 mln; reports suggest House Democrats are pushing ahead with a possible vote next week on another relief package. Canada reports April Ivey PMI; Peru is expected to keep rates steady; Brazil COPOM delivered a dovish surprise last night.

Read More »

Negative News from Europe Helps Dollar Build on Gains

UK has been confirmed to have the highest death toll in Europe the dollar is getting more traction. Reports suggest Congress is resisting President Trump’s call for a payroll tax cut; ADP private sector jobs data is expected to come in at -21 mln. Brazil is expected to cut rates 50 bp; Fitch cut its outlook on Brazil to negative; Chile is expected to keep rates steady.

Read More »

Dollar Remains Under Pressure as Europe Unveils Some Plans to Reopen

Global equity markets continue to trend higher; the dollar remains under pressure. The two-day FOMC meeting ends today; the first look at Q1 US GDP comes out. France and Spain laid out plans to reopen; the UK will rely on a contact tracing plan to limit the viral spread.

Read More »

Dollar Remains Under Pressure as Risk-on Sentiment Persists

The death toll from the virus continues to trend lower in Europe and the US; the dollar remains under some pressure. The Fed announced an expansion of its Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF); regional Fed manufacturing surveys for April continue to roll out; other data will be reported.

Read More »

Dollar Steady as Global Economy Falls Off a Cliff

The virus news stream is negative today; the dollar is trying to build on its recent gains. Weekly jobless claims are expected at 4.5 mln vs. 5.245 mln last week; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for April continue to roll out. ECB confirmed reports that it will accept sub-investment grade debt as collateral; EU leaders will hold a video conference today.

Read More »

Dollar Stalls as Market Sentiment Improves

The virus news stream remains mixed; oil remains at center stage with still extreme volatility. The White House and House Democrats struck a deal on a new aid package worth $484 bln. Canada reports March CPI; Mexico delivered a surprise 50 bp cut to 6.0% yesterday afternoon.

Read More »

Dollar Firm as Equities and Oil Start the Week Under Pressure

The lockdown vs. opening debate continues in just about every country; the dollar is consolidating recent gains. Reports suggest the White House and House Democrats are nearing a deal on another aid package worth nearly $500 bln; the extra fiscal stimulus will add to downward ratings pressure on the US.

Read More »

Dollar Firm in Thin Holiday Trading

The virus news stream is mostly positive today; yet risk assets are starting the week under some modest pressure. The dollar took a hit last week but we think it will recover; some US data releases from Good Friday are worth repeating. With most of Europe closed today, the news stream from the region is very light; oil prices could not extend their gains today after OPEC+ finalized output cuts over the weekend.

Read More »

Dollar Under Modest Pressure as Europe Returns from Holiday

The tug of war between extending vs. softening lockdowns continues. The dollar remains under modest pressure but we think it will eventually recover; Bernie Sanders has endorsed Joe Biden. Europe reopens from holiday today but the news stream remains light; South Africa surprised with an emergency 100 bp rate cut.

Read More »

Dollar Firm as Europe Fails to Deliver

The dollar is stabilizing; reports suggest the White House is developing a plan to reopen the US economy sooner rather than later. Both Hong Kong and Singapore just tightened restrictions on gathering and movement. FOMC minutes for the March 15 decision will be released today.

Read More »

Dollar Mixed, Equities Higher as Virus News Stream Improves

It was a relatively good weekend in virus-related news; measures of implied volatility continue to trend lower. The dollar is trying to build on its recent gains; investors continue to try and gauge just how bad the US economy will get hit. The outlook for oil prices remains highly uncertain and volatile.

Read More »

Dollar Bid as Market Sentiment Worsens

The virus news stream out of Europe has improved a bit. The US is already taking about the next relief bill; the Fed continues to roll out measures to address dollar funding issues. ADP and ISM manufacturing PMI are the US data highlights. Regulators across Europe are asking banks to stop paying dividends; eurozone and UK reported final manufacturing PMIs.

Read More »

Dollar Firm, Markets Unsettled Despite Aggressive Policy Responses Worldwide

Markets remain unsettled even as policymakers worldwide continue to take aggressive emergency measures; the dollar continues to power higher. Fed rolled out another crisis-era program last night; US Senate passed the House virus relief bill by a 90-8 vote. ECB held an emergency call last night and announced an additional bond purchase program to the tune of €750 bln that now includes commercial paper.

Read More »

Dollar Firms, Equities Sink Ahead of ECB Decision as US Fails to Deliver

President Trump spoke to the nation last night and did little to calm markets; reports suggest that the Democrats are working on a bill. Fed easing expectations are intensifying. The ECB decision will be out at 845 AM ET; over the past 17 ECB decision days, the euro has finished lower in 11 of them.

Read More »

Dollar Soft as BOE Surprises Ahead of UK Budget

The dollar is stabilizing but remains vulnerable to disappointment as markets await details of US fiscal measures. US reports February CPI; Joe Biden moved closer to clinching the Democratic nomination. BOE delivered a surprise 50 bp rate cut to 0.25% and initiated a new lending scheme; UK government releases its budget today; UK reported weak data.

Read More »

Dollar Firm as Global Financial Markets Calm

Global financial markets are finally seeing a measure of calm return; local Chinese media is sounding more confident that the situation is now under control. The White House will announce fiscal measures today; five states hold primaries and one holds a caucus with 352 total pledged delegates up for grabs.

Read More »

Dollar Mixed as Coronavirus News Stream Deteriorates

The virus news stream continues to deteriorate. Lower US yields and growing concerns about the spread of the coronavirus in the US are taking a toll on the greenback. OPEC officials are trying to work out another supply cut; The outlook for Turkey is going from bad to worse. Simply put, there is nothing the Fed can do to address the economic impact of supply chain disruptions and social distancing.

Read More »

Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Sentiment Picks Up Again

Negative news on the coronavirus has kept risk appetite subdued across the board; the dollar rally continues. During the North American session, we will get some more clues to the state of the US economy; FOMC minutes were largely as expected. UK January retail sales came in firm; ECB releases the account of its January 23 meeting.

Read More »

Virus Concerns Resurface

Markets are reacting badly to upward revisions to coronavirus cases in China. The euro fell to the weakest level since mid-2017 against the dollar. UK housing data adds to relatively upbeat figures since the December elections. Malaysia’s government is joining in the counter-cyclical fiscal effort.

Read More »