Tag Archive: China
Chinese Philosopher Kings, Losing their Yuan FX Religion?
It took a while, but the world are slowly coming to grips with the simple fact that the red-suzerains in Beijing are not the infallible leaders en route to a new superior economic model as they thought they were. All the craze that emanated from the spurious work of Joshua Cooper Ramo, which eventually led to works like “How China’s Authoritarian Model Will Dominate the Twenty-First Century,” are slowly catching up to reality.
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FX Daily, December 30: Dollar Slips into Year End
In exceptionally thin conditions that characterize the year-end markets, a reportedly computer-generated order lifted the euro from about $1.05 to a little more than $1.0650 in a few minutes early in the Asian sessions.
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FX Outlook 2017: Politics to Eclipse Economics
Investors are familiar with a broad set of macroeconomic variables that often drive asset prices. Many are familiar with corporate balance sheets, price-earning ratios, free cash flow, Q-ratio, and the like.
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Rising Trade Tensions
Obama Administration has taken a hardline against China's trade practices. Other countries are also resisting China's arguments that it is a market economy. Last week, US imposed anti-dumping duties on imported washing machines from China.
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FX Daily, December 14: Markets Quietly Edge into FOMC Meeting
The Pound is entering mid-December in the same fashion it begun the month after having a very strong November as well. After being buoyed by Donald Trump’s victory and the High Courts ruling that parliamentary approval is needed before invoking Article 50, the Pound has been boosted further after economic data has also impressed, with yesterday being a good example of this.
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Global Warm-Ongering: What Happens If Trump Takes US Out Of Paris Agreement?
For all the shock, horror, and aghast of global warm-ongers, comes a startling revelation: It’s Irrelevant if US Pulls Out of Paris Accord. Donald Trump has sent his clearest message yet about his plans for reshaping US policy on global warming by choosing a chief environmental regulator who has questioned the science of climate change.
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Net National Savings Rate, the Best Alternative Indicator to GDP Growth
For us the Net National Savings Rate is the best alternative indictator to GDP growth. It is positively correlated with the change in wealth, with the establishment of future productive capacity, the price of government bonds and currency valuations. But today GDP growth is often negatively correlated to the Net Savings Rate. Hence GDP is often a less useful measure.
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Global Wealth Update: 0.7 percent Of Adults Control $116.6 Trillion In Wealth
Today Credit Suisse released its latest annual global wealth report, which traditionally lays out what is perhaps the biggest reason for the recent "anti-establishment" revulsion: an unprecedented concentration of wealth among a handful of people, as shown in its infamous global wealth pyramid, an arrangement which as observed by the "shocking" political backlash of the past few months suggests that the lower 'levels' of the pyramid are...
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If TPP is Dead…
TPP may be dead, but China is spearheading an alternative regional free trade deal. It is not as ambitious as the US-led TPP. China and Russia are eager to re-establish spheres of influence.
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You’ll Only Understand Trump and Brexit If You Understand the Failure of Globalization
You can only understand the victory of Donald Trump and Brexit once you understand the failure of globalization… Trump made rejection of globalization a centerpiece of his campaign. In his July 21st acceptance speech as the Republican nominee, he said: Americanism, not globalism, will be our credo.
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FX Daily, November 16: The Greenback Remains Resilient
The US dollar remains bid. It is at its year high against the euro and five-month highs against the Japanese yen. Sterling, which has performed better recently, remains in the trough around 30-year lows. It surge since the election reflects three considerations. The first is December Fed hike. Prior to the election, the market was assessing around a two-thirds chance. Now both the CME and Bloomberg's WIRP estimate the odds above 90%....
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Toward a New World Order?
A Brave New World is coming? Perhaps. We had a recent discussion with a group of people in the hopeless business of doing long term forecasting. This made us think about what the world will look like over the next 20 to 40 years. A pretty thankless task, but the bottom line is without a damn good war, Asia will be the way of the future.
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China Update
The evolving political situation in China is worth monitoring. China's trade surplus with the US has fallen this year. It has been roughly 20 years since China was formally labeled a currency manipulator. Trump has indicated he would do so.
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Cashless Society – Is The War On Cash Set To Benefit Gold?
Cash is the new “barbarous relic” according to many central banks, regulators, and some economists and there is a strong, concerted push for the ‘cashless society’. Developments in recent days and weeks have highlighted the risks posed by the war on cash and the cashless society.
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Yuan Not
There were two dogs that did not bark this year. There are the Japanese yen, which despite negative interest rates and an unprecedented expansion of the central bank's balance sheet, the yen has strengthened 15% against the dollar. The yen has been the strongest major currency, and the third strongest currency in the world behind the high-yielding Brazilian real, recovering from last year's drop, and the Russian rouble, aided by a rebound in oil.
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FX Daily, October 19: FX After China GDP
The Swiss Franc has strengthened against the pound as global uncertainty persists in the form of the UK’s Brexit vote and the US Presidential Election. Looking ahead it seems the CHF may soften a little as we learn of the new President, I found it very interesting that yesterday Paddy Power paid out on any bets for Hilary Clinton to become President in the United States.
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