Category Archive: 2.) Pictet Macro Analysis

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Pictet — Perspectives: The “Three Amigos”

2019-01-18

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2018 was a difficult year for markets and according to César Pérez Ruiz, Pictet Wealth Management’s Head of Investments and CIO, 2019 will be a year in which the “three amigos” will have to coexist. The bull will appear in economic deceleration, the bear in a democratic recession and the kangaroo across market dynamics. https://www.group.pictet/wealth-management

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Pictet — Perspectives: The “Three Amigos”

2019-01-18

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2018 was a difficult year for markets and according to César Pérez Ruiz, Pictet Wealth Management’s Head of Investments and CIO, 2019 will be a year in which the “three amigos” will have to coexist. The bull will appear in economic deceleration, the bear in a democratic recession and the kangaroo across market dynamics. https://www.group.pictet/wealth-management

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Outlook for euro periphery bonds

2019-01-17

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2019-01-17

Italian Sovereign Spread and Italian Banks CDS 2011-2019
Economic fundamentals should come back into focus, but politics still a factor.After a year when peripheral countries’ old demons made a reappearance, with, in particular, Italy’s public debt back in the spotlight, the focus should shift to economic fundamentals in 2019. Both the Spanish and Italian economies are set to slow down, although the situation is more serious in Italy.

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Concerns about Italy have not gone away

2019-01-14

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2019-01-14

Italian Real GDP Growth and Surveys, Q1 2012-Q1 2018
Rome and Brussels reached a compromise on the Italian government’s budget plans last month. But there are plenty of reasons for thinking this will be a challenging year for Italy.After battling for more than two months over a 2019 budget plan defiantly non-compliant with the EU fiscal rules, Rome and Brussels struck a last-minute agreement in December that avoided opening an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP).

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UK Politicians remain stuck in the mire

2019-01-13

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2019-01-13

Brexit - Simplified view of possibilities ahead
Next week’s vote on the divorce deal is likely to be defeated, and there is precious little time for an alternative before the Brexit deadline in March.The British parliamentary vote on Theresa May’s EU divorce deal will be on 15 January. The deal is likely to be rejected, as there has been little progress since December, when a first vote was called off for lack of support.

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Germany is Stagnating

2019-01-12

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2019-01-12

Germany Industrial Production and Manufacturing PMI, 2012 - 2018
Sagging industrial production and confidence figures point to weak Q4 GDP. German industrial production (including construction) fell by 1.9% month-on-month in November, extending the sector’s decline to five out the six last prints. Year on year, industrial production was down by 4.6%, the worst performance since November 2009.

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Core Euro Sovereign Bonds 2019 Outlook

2018-12-23

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2018-12-23

10 Year Bund Yield and EONIA Pricing, 2016 - 2018
In our central scenario, we expect the 10-year Bund yield to rise gradually to 0.8% by the end of next year from 0.26% on 17 December. Underpinning this upward movement is our expectation of a cumulative deposit rate hike of 40 basis points (bps) by the ECB, against current market expectations of only 10 bps.

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Pictet – Multi-Generational Wealth, Singapore (Abridged version)

2018-12-18

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In Asia, we are seeing a generational shift as the region’s wealth creators hand over stewardship of family wealth to their sons and daughters. As this second generation’s influence grows, the management of family assets and investments is becoming increasingly sophisticated. Over the years, Pictet has been a successful partner in helping both families and their Family Offices to complete this process, and it was among the topics addressed during...

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Pictet – Multi-Generational Wealth, Singapore (Full version)

2018-12-18

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In Asia, we are seeing a generational shift as the region’s wealth creators hand over stewardship of family wealth to their sons and daughters. As this second generation’s influence grows, the management of family assets and investments is becoming increasingly sophisticated. Over the years, Pictet has been a successful partner in helping both families and their Family Offices to complete this process, and it was among the topics addressed during...

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Pictet – Multi-Generational Wealth, Singapore (Abridged version)

2018-12-18

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In Asia, we are seeing a generational shift as the region’s wealth creators hand over stewardship of family wealth to their sons and daughters. As this second generation’s influence grows, the management of family assets and investments is becoming increasingly sophisticated. Over the years, Pictet has been a successful partner in helping both families and …

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Pictet – Multi-Generational Wealth, Singapore (Full version)

2018-12-18

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In Asia, we are seeing a generational shift as the region’s wealth creators hand over stewardship of family wealth to their sons and daughters. As this second generation’s influence grows, the management of family assets and investments is becoming increasingly sophisticated. Over the years, Pictet has been a successful partner in helping both families and …

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ECB: Still Broadly Confident, but Caution Increasing

2018-12-15

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2018-12-15

ECB Staff Projections
The ECB kept its key rates unchanged (i.e. the main refinancing at 0.00%; the marginal lending facility rate at 0.25% and the deposit rate at -0.4%), in line with consensus. The ECB’s forward guidance on interest rates was kept unchanged. The ECB expects its policy rates to “remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019”.

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ECB Preview: an end to net asset purchases

2018-12-10

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2018-12-10

ECB Staff Projections, September - December 2018
With the ECB’s asset purchases due to end this month and forward guidance set to remain unchanged, a focus at next week’s policy meeting will be staff forecasts for growth and inflation. At its Governing Council meeting next week, we expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to confirm that its asset purchases will cease at year’s end.

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Yellow vest protests cast cloud over Macron’s reform plans

2018-12-06

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2018-12-06

General Government Total Receipts from Taxes and Social Contributions 1995-2018
Recent protests could have a negative impact on French growth, tax revenue and president Macron’s reform plans for his country and for Europe. French protests began on November 17 over hikes in fuel taxes, but have progressively broadened out into an expression of general anger with the French government about the cost of living and high taxes.

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Growth Contraction puts pressure on Italian Government

2018-12-04

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2018-12-04

Italy GDP, Q1 - Q3 2018
The downward revision to 3Q GDP will make the Italian government’s targets more difficult to achieve and complicate the budget debate with Europe. The Italian statistical office’s (ISTAT) final reading showed that the economy shrank 0.1% q-o-q (-0.5% q-o-q annualised) in Q3, whereas a preliminary reading on October 30 showed that growth was flat.

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Surprise contraction in Swiss Q3 GDP

2018-11-29

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2018-11-29

Swiss Quarterly GDP growth 2014-2018
Switzerland’s growth unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter, pushing down our GDP growth forecast for 2018. Recent softening in the euro area also casts doubts about the pace of monetary tightening by the SNB.The strong growth enjoyed by the Swiss economy since Q1 2017 came suddenly to an end in Q3 18, when real GDP shrank unexpectedly by 0.2% q-o-q (-0.9% q-o-q annualised).

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Italy and the EU: a debt-based excessive deficit procedure

2018-11-26

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2018-11-26

Italian General Government Debt 2006-2022
European Commission deems Italy's budget noncompliant with EU rules.This week, the European Commission issued its opinion on Italy’s budget plans. Deeming them noncompliant with the EU’s budgetary rules, it recommended that an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) be opened.Of the options available to the EU, a debt-based EDP would be the most difficult for Italy to deal with, as it would last longer and require Italy to ensure its debt stock...

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Pictet – In Conversation with Cesar Perez Ruiz

2018-11-19

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After a decade of protection from central banks, the markets are changing. But Cesar Perez Ruiz, Pictet’s chief investment officer, says this needn’t be cause for concern. During the Investment Summit, at Pictet’s headquarters in Geneva, he made the case for active management and strategic asset allocation as important contributors to healthy returns.

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Pictet – In Conversation with Cesar Perez Ruiz

2018-11-19

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After a decade of protection from central banks, the markets are changing. But Cesar Perez Ruiz, Pictet’s chief investment officer, says this needn’t be cause for concern. During the Investment Summit, at Pictet’s headquarters in Geneva, he made the case for active management and strategic asset allocation as important contributors to healthy returns.

Read More »

China hard data for October reveals mixed picture

2018-11-18

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2018-11-18

China Retail Sales in Nominal and Real terms
Disappointing consumption numbers point to growth deceleration in early 2019, but government measures beginning to be felt.Hard data out of China for October was mixed. On the positive side, growth in infrastructure picked up, suggesting the government’s fiscal policy easing is taking effect in the real economy. Industrial production numbers stopped declining, and the mining sector has a particularly strong performance.

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