Category Archive: 2.) Europe and Euro Crisis

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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Europe Debates The Burkini: “We Will Colonize You With Your Democratic Laws”

2016-09-04

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2016-09-04

"We will colonize you with your democratic laws." — Yusuf al-Qaradawi, Egyptian Islamic cleric and chairman of the International Union of Muslim Scholars. "Beaches, like any public space, must be protected from religious claims. The burkini is an anti-social political project aimed in particular at subjugating women.

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Spain’s Political Deadlock Likely Leads to Third Election

2016-08-31

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2016-08-31

Rajoy is hoping to form a minority government this week. It seems unlikely to succeed, which could lead to an election on Christmas. Regional elections and corruption trials may change Spain's political dynamics.

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European Court of Justice Ruling Weighs on Italian Banks

2016-07-19

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2016-07-19

ECJ uphold principle of bailing in junior creditors before the use of public funds. Italian banks shares snap a three-day advance. The EBA/ECB stress test results at the end of next week are the next big event.

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Three Developments in Spain

2016-07-13

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2016-07-13

Favorable initial ruling for Spanish banks that overcharged on mortgages. The EC may be lenient on Spain (and Portugal) for the excessive deficits in 2015. There is a window of opportunity for Rajoy to form a minority government.

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New Wrinkle in European Bail-In Efforts

2016-07-11

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2016-07-11

European Court of Justice could rule on July 19 that private investors do not have to be bailed in before public money can be used to recapitalize banks. Italy stands to gain the most, at least immediately, from such a judgment. Italian bank shares recovered after initial weakness.

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Great Graphic: More Thoughts on Banks

2016-07-07

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2016-07-07

Italian banks have done worse that European banks. Italian banks outperformed Germany banks from end of H1 12 through H1 15. US banks and financials more broadly have outperformed Europe.

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Return of the Repressed: Europe’s Unresolved Banking Crisis

2016-07-06

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2016-07-06

The IMF identified three banks that posted the most significant systemic risks. It has been overshadowed by new pressure on Italy's banks, and Three UK commercial real estate funds have been frozen to prevent redemptions.

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Spain Sells 3x Oversubscribed 50-Year Bond

2016-05-11

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2016-05-11

Following a scramble by European nations to issue ultra long-dated government paper, which saw France and Belgium sell 50-year bonds last month, while Ireland and Belgium went all the way and issued century bonds, with even Switzerland locking in 42-...

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Outlook for Spain’s Election

2015-12-14

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2015-12-14

The pace of reform in Spain has slowed, with electoral considerations likely playing a role.  A new center-right government may resume efforts to reform the labor market, even if leading a government costs Rajoy his job.   Representation of Podemos i...

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France, Schengen and the Future of Europe

2015-12-09

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2015-12-09

The second round of French regional elections will be held this weekend.  The first round last weekend saw the National Front do best in terms of popular votes and led in six of the twelve regions.    The National Front is not simply anti-austerity, but it is anti-EMU.  In regions that NF garnered more than 40% … Continue reading »

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Is Grexit Back on the Table?

2015-12-02

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2015-12-02

Defying the expectations a few months ago, Greece remained in the Economic and Monetary Union.  It recently succeeded in implementing sufficient reforms to earn another tranche of aid.   However, the entire exercise exhausted whatever trust the...

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France’s Revival or Politics Trumps Economics

2015-11-27

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2015-11-27

With the ECB poised to take additional steps down the unorthodox monetary policy route, financial and economic forces are as potent as ever.  However,  there is a subtle shift taking place that few seem to recognize.  It is the re-emergence of...

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Eurocrisis, Myth and Reality, part 1: Big Job Creation in Spain

In the new series George Dorgan suggests that the euro crisis is a temporary development but not a long-lasting crisis. In the first part he shows that Spain actually created a lot of jobs in last twenty five years.

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Steve Keen Steering the Greek Hedge Fund into the Minsky Moment #Tsiprasfacts

tsipras facts


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ECB Measures Background: How to Reduce German Competitiveness and Talk down the Euro

2014-06-06

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2014-06-06

euro downtalk
In our view, the ECB measures of June 2014 want to increase German lending, spending, salaries and inflation. Finally they target a reduction of German competitiveness. The ECB wanted to talk down the euro but will not succeed. We explain why the measure are bullish for the euro. We expect EUR/USD of 1.40 in the … Continue...

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Euro and EU sceptical Parties in EU 2014 Elections: The Economic Danger Is Left not Right

2014-05-30

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2014-05-30

The tendency of the European parliament elections seems to be that in the Northern countries rather right-wing parties obtain more votes, like British UKIP, German AFD, Danish People’s Party, Austrian FPÖ or Sweden Democrats. In the austerity countries the left-wing movements are getting stronger and stronger, led by SYRIZA in Greece and Sinn Fein in …

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The New Widow-Maker Trade: Short Italian Government Bonds

Widow maker
We think that, similarly as Japanese JGBs, Spanish and Italian Government Bond Yields will continue its race to the bottom, Short Italian Bonds is the new Widow-Maker Trade.

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2013 Posts on Euro Crisis and Euro Macro

An Upcoming Italian Success Story?

2013-12-19

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2013-12-19

Italian Real Trade vs. Real Consumption
While the mainstream is still talking about potential riots in Italian streets, we rather see positive adjustments in the Italian economy.

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An Upcoming Italian Success Story?

Labor Participation Rate Australia Canada Italy Germany USA France
Higher exports show that Italy's economy is trying to become a new German Companies seem to hide their competitiveness. A question remains: Will Italian companies really invest in Italy and create jobs?

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