Category Archive: Europe and Euro Crisis

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Downturn Rising, German Industry

You know things have really changed when Economists start revising their statements more than the data. What’s going on in the global economy has quickly reached a critical stage. This represents a big shift in expectations, a really big one, especially in the mainstream where the words “strong” and “boom” couldn’t have been used any more than they were.

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Not Buying The New Stimulus

What just happened in Europe? The short answer is T-LTRO. The ECB is getting back to being “accommodative” again. This isn’t what was supposed to be happening at this point in time. Quite the contrary, Europe’s central bank had been expecting to end all its programs and begin normalizing interest rates.

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…And Get Bigger

Just as there is gradation for positive numbers, there is color to negative ones, too. On the plus side, consistently small increments marked by the infrequent jump is never to be associated with a healthy economy let alone one that is booming. A truly booming economy is one in which the small positive numbers are rare. The recovery phase preceding the boom takes that to an extreme.

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EU Recession Imminent – Euro Disunion as Brexit, Italy and End of QE Loom

Someone asked recently how many times I had “crossed the pond” to Europe. I really don’t know. Certainly dozens of times. It’s been several times a year for as long as I remember. That makes me an extremely unusual American. Most of us never visit Europe, except maybe for a rare dream vacation. And that’s okay because our own country is wonderful and has a lifetime of sights to see.

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‘Paris’ Technocrats Face Another Drop

How quickly things change. Only a few days ago, a fuel tax in France was blamed for widespread rioting. Today, Emmanuel Macron’s government under siege threatens to break its fiscal budget. Having given up on gasoline and diesel, the French government now promises wage increases and tax cuts.

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Harmful Modern Myths And Legends

Loreley Rock near Sankt Goarshausen sits at a narrow curve on the Rhine River in Germany. The shape of the bluff produces a faint echo in the wind, supposedly the last whispers of a beautiful maiden who threw herself from it in despair once spurned by her paramour. She was transformed into a siren, legend says, a tantalizing wail which cries out and lures fishermen and tradesmen on the great river to their death.

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London House Prices Fall At Fastest Rate Since Height Of Financial Crisis

– London house prices fall at the fastest annual rate since height of the financial crisis – London house prices fall in 5th month in row, worst falls since 2009 – London rents dropped at the fastest rate in eight years – ONS – Brexit, London property slump put brake on UK house price growth – Consumer spending declined in July as inflation increased

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London House Prices Fall 1.9 percent In Quarter – Bubble Bursting?

London house prices down 1.9 per cent in Q2 (yoy). London house prices still 50% above 2007 bubble peak (see chart). Brexit and weak consumer confidence to blame say experts. Little sign that U.K. property “weakness” is likely to change. London property bubble appears to be bursting.

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Credit Spreads: Polly is Twitching Again – in Europe

The famous dead parrot is coming back to life… in an unexpected place. With its QE operations, which included inter alia corporate bonds, the ECB has managed to suppress credit spreads in Europe to truly ludicrous levels.

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Eurozone Faces Many Threats Including Trade Wars and “Eurozone Time-Bomb” In Italy

Eurozone threatened by trade wars, Italy and major political and economic instability. Trade war holds a clear and present danger to stability and economic prospects. Italy represents major source of potential disruption for the currency union. Financial markets fail to reflect the “eurozone time-bomb” in Italy. Financial volatility concerns in Brussels & warning of ‘sharp correction’ on horizon.

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Euro area Flash PMIs: “Growing pains” but no reason to panic

Today’s first batch of euro area March business surveys looks worrying at first sight. The drop in the euro area composite PMI index, from 57.1 to 55.3 in March (consensus: 56.8), was the second one in a row and the largest monthly decline in six years. New orders fell to a 14-month low. The correction in business sentiment was predominantly driven by the manufacturing sector, which could reflect broader concerns of a trade war.

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Europe chart of the week – French unemployment

French unemployment fell surprisingly fast in Q4 2017, to a new cyclical low.France registered the largest drop in unemployment in about ten years in Q4 2017. In metropolitan France, the number of unemployed fell by 205,000 to 2.5 million people, pushing the ILO unemployment rate down to 8.6% of the labour force (-0.7pp), its lowest level since Q1 2009.

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The Historical Warnings of Money

It’s interesting, to me anyway, that an image of the Roman goddess Juno remains to this day on the logo of the Bank of England. There are many stories about her role as it relates to money, but what cannot be denied is that the very word itself came to us from her temple. The Latin moneta was derived from the word monere, a verb meaning to warn. Moneta was Juno’s surname.

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L’Union européenne fait semblant de lutter contre l’évasion fiscale. Attac

Les paradis fiscaux lovés au coeur de l’UE, de l’Asie et des Etats-Unis d’Amérique sont occultés… L’analyse vire à la farce! Après avoir étudié la situation de 92 pays en matière de lutte contre l’évasion fiscale, l’Union européenne n’en retient donc que 17 sur sa liste noire des paradis fiscaux. Parmi ces États dits « non-coopératifs » on trouve, entre autres, le Panama, la Tunisie, les Emirats arabes unis, Trinité et...

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Europe Is Booming, Except It’s Not

European GDP rose 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2017, the eighteenth consecutive increase for the Continental (EA 19) economy. That latter result is being heralded as some sort of achievement, though the 0.6% is also to a lesser degree. The truth is that neither is meaningful, and that Europe’s economy continues toward instead the abyss.

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Eurozone Crisis Is Back

Gold will be safe haven again in looming EU crisis. EU crisis is no longer just about debt but about political discontent. EU officials refuse to acknowledge changing face of politics across the union. Catalonia shows measures governments will use to maintain control. EU currently holds control over banks accounts and ability to use cash. Protect your savings with gold in the face of increased financial threat from EU.

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Three Developments in Europe You may have Missed

The focus in Europe has been Catalonia's push for independence and the attempt by Madrid to prevent it. Tomorrow's ECB meeting, where more details about next year's asset purchases, is also awaited. There are three developments that we suspect have been overshadowed but are still instructive. First, the ECB reported that its balance sheet shrank last week. With the ECB set to take another baby step toward the exit, many are seeing convergence,...

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Après les Panama Papers, enquête sur Malte, « paradis fiscal méconnu ». L’Express

l existe une armée « d’émigrés du fisc à Malte », dénonce un consortium de journalistes. Bouygues et Total figurent parmi les entreprises épinglées. Mediapart et le réseau European Investigative Collaborations (EIC) ont publié, vendredi, une longue enquête sur Malte et « les coulisses d’un paradis fiscal« .

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Les coulisses secrètes de l’Europe vues par Yannis Varoufakis.

L’ancien ministre grec Yannis Varoufakis vient de sortir un livre, « Conversations entre adultes. Dans les coulisses secrètes de l’Europe (Les Liens qui libèrent, 530 pages, 26 euros) », dans lequel cet économiste anticonformiste relate son expérience de ministre des finances de sept mois, janvier-juillet 2015, dans le gouvernement d’extrême-gauche de Alexis Tsipras.

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France: Le déficit chronique de la balance des paiements.

La libre-circulation des biens, des services, des revenus, des capitaux et des personnes , appelée les 4 L, est mesurée entre autres par la balance des paiements. Celle-ci décrit selon la Banque de France: « les échanges économiques entre la France et les autres pays. Elle apporte une grille de lecture de référence sur la situation de notre pays dans une économie mondialisée.

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