Category Archive: 2.) Europe and Euro Crisis

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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The New Widow-Maker Trade: Short Italian Government Bonds

Widow maker
We think that, similarly as Japanese JGBs, Spanish and Italian Government Bond Yields will continue its race to the bottom, Short Italian Bonds is the new Widow-Maker Trade.

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2013 Posts on Euro Crisis and Euro Macro

An Upcoming Italian Success Story?

2013-12-19

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2013-12-19

Italian Real Trade vs. Real Consumption
While the mainstream is still talking about potential riots in Italian streets, we rather see positive adjustments in the Italian economy.

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An Upcoming Italian Success Story?

Labor Participation Rate Australia Canada Italy Germany USA France
Higher exports show that Italy's economy is trying to become a new German Companies seem to hide their competitiveness. A question remains: Will Italian companies really invest in Italy and create jobs?

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Robert Mundell: Why Libertarians Must Love the Euro



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8a) Italy and the Euro Exit

Beppe Grillo
Italy, other peripheral economies and later France will follow Japan for a decade or more of balance sheet recession: stagnant wages, falling real estate prices and a reduction of private debt.

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European Banking Assets and Debt

Reliance of Foreign Funding Italy Spain
Still in summer 2013, too much debt was an issue. By 2014 things have changed: Europeans have too many savings.

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Italian Retail Prices Remain close to Switzerland, Germany Far Cheaper

2013-06-16

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2013-06-16

German vs. Italian prices since 1998
Disinflation Finally Starting in Italy The Swiss site preisbarometer.ch is run by the Swiss Consumer Association. Their price data shows that a food basket is 46% more expensive when compared between the German “Kaufland” shop and the Swiss “Coop”. Going to France into “Leclerc” gives you an advantage of 38% against Coop. However, for a …

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Reasons for the Spanish Housing Bubble



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Why it Makes Sense to Exit the Euro Zone in Times of Balance Sheet Recessions

Beppe Grillo
Italy will follow Japan for decade(s) of balance sheet recession. There is one mean to avoid it. The periphery should use current positive market sentiments and low inflation to exit the euro zone.

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The Transfer Union from South to North since 2008: Wolfgang Schäuble, the Evil Genius of the Euro Crisis

Schäuble
Wolfgang Schäuble has become the evil genius of the euro crisis. He has understood that the Cyprus crisis won't lead to a bank-run and collapse of capital markets. We all know that the US is now recovering.

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European Wealth Reports: Why “Median” Italians are Far Richer than Germans

Italy home sales business loans 2000-2012
We explain why according to the European wealth reports "median" Italians are more wealthy than Germans. The main reasons are high savings and accumulation of wealth for the average family until the 1990s, often invested in homes and real estate. Low ECB interest rates finally let the value of the home rise strongly.

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Dijsselbloem: The End of the Bankers’ and Bond Holders’ Moral Hazard

2013-03-27

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2013-03-27

Lagarde Rehn Dijsselbloem
We have insisted in several posts that the northern euro zone is very reluctant to continuously bail out the periphery and in particular its banks. The euro group chief Dijsselbloem has confirmed this now.

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Cyprus, the Final Compromise: The Winners and the Losers

2013-03-25

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2013-03-25

Laiki Bank
 UPDATE March 25 The final compromise: via Reuters TOP NEWS Detail of EU/IMF bailout agreement with Cyprus Sun, Mar 24 22:19 PM EDT BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Cyprus clinched a last-ditch deal with international lenders on Monday for a 10 billion euro ($13 billion) bailout that will shut down its second largest bank and inflict heavy …

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Cyprus: The initial compromise and reactions

2013-03-23

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2013-03-23

Cyprus Haircut
The initial compromise The Cyprus compromise combines a 10 billion € bailout with European, basically German tax-payers money, that also obliges rich account owners (9.9% levy) – rich Russians and Brits – and poorer account owners (6.75% levy) – Cypriot tax-payers money – to take part in the deal. Initial reactions from Zerohedge over Keynesian mainstream …

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Cyprus Levy on Deposits: New Escalation or Final Stage of Euro Crisis?

2013-03-16

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2013-03-16

Cyprus Bank levy deposits
Nicosia will impose a 9.9 percent one-off levy on deposits above 100,000 euros in Cypriot banks. This constitutes maybe the final stage of the euro crisis, with the very  last country to be rescued. Or will it be a new escalation and may be the most dangerous one, a bank-run? How many Cyprus clients managed …

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A Century Of French And Italian Economic Decline

eurozone margin proxy weakening msci em msci europe
Italy overtook Japan with the worst real GDP growth of all advanced economies since 1991 (0.79% per year, an amazing and sad distinction). Italians and French are clearly getting tired of austerity.

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Das beeindruckende Comeback Berlusconis.

2013-02-28

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2013-02-28

Wir sind beeindruckt von dem Leitartikel der Weltwoche, der doch ganz unserem Gedankengut entsprochen hat. Der deutsche Kanzlerkandidat Steinbrück hat der deutschen Demokratieverachtung und EU-treuen Überheblichkeit dann noch das i-Tüpfelchen hinzugefügt. “Zwei Clowns haben gewonnen.“   Von Roger Köppel, Die Weltwoche Demokratie ist, wenn es anders herauskommt, als Meinungsführer, Journalisten und tonangebende Politiker gedacht...

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Über die Arroganz und Demokratiefeindlichkeit der deutschen und Schweizer Medien

2013-02-26

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2013-02-26

Deutsche und Schweizer Medien sind oft vereint mit den Europäischen Leadern, Deutschen Exporteuren und den Finanzmärkten im Kampf gegen den gemeinsamen Feind, Silvio Berlusconi, das Enfant Terrible, das Gegenteil der Schweizer Bescheidenheit- und “Bloss nicht zu laut”-Etikette. Berlusconi soll Schuld sein am Abstieg Italiens seit den 90igern, obwohl auch die Linke mit Romani Prodi zweimal …

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