Category Archive: 1) SNB and CHF

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Research on SNB & CHF



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Private markets, public investors: The march of the sovereigns

2014-06-17

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2014-06-17

Public - private
SOVEREIGN wealth funds, typically set up by oil-exporting nations, have been around for decades, in the case of Kuwait since 1953. But their influence has increased in recent years, as China has adopted a similar strategy for investing some of its vast foreign-exchange reserves while existing funds have been fuelled by gains from high oil prices.

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Buttonwood: Land of the falling yield

2014-06-05

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2014-06-05

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SNB Follows ECB? Pictet’s Negative SNB Interest Call

2014-06-03

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2014-06-03

swiss mp
Pictet calls for negative interest rates in Switzerland in order to maintain rate differentials between the euro zone and Switzerland. Maintaining rate differentials would be useful for FX speculators and for money market funds that still invest in the euro zone.

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Swiss Franc, Pseudo-Mathematics And Financial Charlatanism: Extended Version

2014-05-08

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2014-05-08

charlatan
We have published the extended version of “The Swiss Franc, Pseudo-Mathematics And Financial Charlatanism” on the investor site Seeking Alpha. The version is longer than the one published previously.

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SNB First Quarter Results: 1.7% annualized Yield on Seigniorage, 2% annualized Loss on FX Rate Change

2014-05-02

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2014-05-02

Swiss National Bank
The main task of a central bank occupied with QEE (quantitative easing or exchange intervention) is to obtain higher gains on seigniorage than it loses with its “ever appreciating” currency. Otherwise its equity capital would be absorbed. In the first quarter of 2014, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was unable to accomplish this task.  

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George Dorgan bei den Jungfreisinnigen Zürich: CHF und Schweizer Wirtschaft

snb profits and profits thanks to gold, gold price debt ceiling


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Real Yields Differentials as Driver of the CHF Exchange Rate



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Is the SNB Intervening Again?

2014-03-30

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2014-03-30

snb intervention, chairman philipp hildebrand
Update March 21, 2014: Total SNB sight deposits increased to 367.8 bln. CHF, but flows reverted a bit. Foreign banks and “non-banks” reduced their CHF exposure at the SNB to 50.8 bln, possibly converting a part of the difference into USD. Dollars are more useful when sanctions will hurt both Russian and German firms. On … Continue...

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The IMF Assessment for Switzerland and our Critique

2014-03-27

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2014-03-27

international monetary fund
In the 2014 assessment for Switzerland by the International Monetary Fund several sentences caught our eyes; we will contrast them with our recent critique. The most important one was that for the IMF is only "moderately overvalued", this would have no negative effect for exporters.

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The IMF Assessment for Switzerland 2014 and our critique

international monetary fund
In the 2014 assessment for Switzerland by the International Monetary Fund, several sentences sparked in our eyes; we will contrast them with our recent critique.

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SECO expects 2.2% Swiss growth, further CHF strength ahead, understand why

2014-03-19

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2014-03-19

swiss gdp forecast march 2014 seco, consuotion, business cycles expert group
The Swiss government see Swiss GDP growth at 2.2% in 2014 and 2.7% in 2015. Our estimate sees a divergence in the GDP components; we expects a lower trade surplus and higher spending. in both cases CHF should rise.

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2013 SNB’s Valuation Gains 14 billion CHF on Stocks, but Losses of 35 bln. on Gold, FX and Bonds

2014-03-07

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2014-03-07

results estimate snb 2013 fx gov. bonds corp. bonds gold stocks interest incime stab. fund total
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is reporting a loss of CHF 9.1 billion for the year 2013 (2012: profit of CHF 6.0 billion). Valuation losses on gold holdings amounting to some CHF 15.2 billion contrast with a profit of CHF 3.1 billion on foreign currency positions and a net result of CHF 3.4 billion from …

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SNB Q1/2014 Results: 1.7% annualized Yield on Seigniorage, 2% annualized Loss on FX Rate Change

results estimate snb 2013 fx gov. bonds corp. bonds gold stocks interest incime stab. fund total
The main task of a central bank occupied with QEE (quantitative easing or exchange intervention) is to obtain higher gains on seigniorage than it loses with its "ever appreciating" currency. Otherwise its equity capital would be absorbed.

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15 Billion SNB Losses on Gold in 2013, But 40 Billion SNB Profit on Gold between 2000 and 2012

swiss gold
For anybody complaining about gold that caused the big loss of the Swiss National Bank. Since 2000, the total SNB profit was 32.1 bln. CHF, of which 24.6 billion came from gold.

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George Dorgan bei den Jungfreisinnigen Zürich, Teil 1: CHF und Schweizer Wirtschaft

2014-02-23

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2014-02-23

george dorgan
Am 7. Februar hat George Dorgan eine Präsentation bei den Jungfreisinnigen Zürich gehalten. Themen waren die weitere Entwicklung des Frankens, die Schweizer Wirtschaft, die SNB und die Auswirkungen der Gold- und Masseneinwanderungsinitiativen.

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George Dorgan at Swiss Young Liberals: Slides

2014-02-05

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2014-02-05

On Friday the 7th of February at 19.00, George Dorgan is presenting his outlook on the Swiss Franc. He explains if and when the Swiss National Bank is able to generate profits again. Moreover he discusses the influence of the two referendums “Save Our Swiss Gold” and “Against Mass Immigration” on the Swiss Franc and …

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Basel III, Swiss Finish and the regulatory minimum capital requirements

basel III and swiss finish common equity tier 1 cet


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SNB Increases Weight of Countercyclical Capital Buffer for Banks

2014-01-23

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2014-01-23

basel 3 capital requirements, common equity tier, hybrid, capital conservation buffer additional dier, countercyclical buffer
The SNB requires banks to raise the weight of the counter-cyclical capital buffers” (CCB) by holding extra capital worth 1 per cent of the risk-weighted assets in their mortgage portfolios.

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SNB Balance Sheet Expansion

snb balance sheet expansion
Since 2008 the balance sheet of the Swiss National Bank is 280% higher, this is the equivalent of 60% of Swiss GDP. So did most other central banks, too. But there is one big difference: The risk for the SNB is far higher, the SNB nearly exclusively possesses assets denominated in volatile foreign currency.

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