Category Archive: 1.) CHF

George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

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CHF as Funding Currency: Where is the Carry Trade, Bob Savage?

Swiss Franc Put/Call Ratio, Futures Volumes, Open Interest etc.

Franc-ly we’re delighted, said the SNB

2013-01-17

by David Keohane

2013-01-17

Here’s the Swiss franc at its weakest level against the euro since the Swiss National Bank put its cap into place in September 2011: The euro hit SFr1.2485 on Thursday, up 3.3 per cent since the 10th of January and back to levels not seen since May 2...

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The wonders of the FX universe

2013-01-11

by Izabella Kaminska

2013-01-11

Dark matter may more commonly be associated with physics, space exploration and Professor Brian Cox, but, according to Deutsche Bank’s FX strategist George Saravelos, there’s a good chance that it’s becoming a recognisable force in the world of forei...

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Long-Term Elliott Wave Analysis EUR/CHF and Fundamental Background

Correlations Between the Swiss Franc, Gold and the German Economy

2012-12-21

by George Dorgan

2012-12-21

In yesterday’s post we focused on several economic events that weakened the position of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). In this extended replacement post, we give several reasons for recent movements in the gold price and explain the correlation between German economic data, gold and the Swiss franc. IFO data shows that Germany will not …

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‘Negative’ has such unfairly negative connotations

2012-12-11

by David Keohane

2012-12-11

Dear people, ATTENTION: HEAD OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS/NETWORKMANAGEMENT/TREASURY AND/OR CASH MANAGEMENT FURTHER TO OUR SWIFT DATED 26 08 2011 PLEASE BE INFORMED THAT DUE TO THE CONTINUED PREVAILING MARKET SITUATION AFFECTING THE SWISS FRANC, WE HAVE...

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Jim Rogers, 2012: When Will the Peg Fall? Will Switzerland Become Bulgaria?

2012-12-03

by George Dorgan

2012-12-03

Given that most farmers are rather old, he says that the world should be very grateful to speculators that bet on food prices, this helps to obtain the required younger farmers. Jim Rogers has exchanged all his euros into francs, he thinks that the EUR/CHF peg will fall soon. Tagesanzeiger (

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Gold, CHF, Brent Arbitrage Trading after Negative CS, UBS Interest Rates

2012-12-01

by George Dorgan

2012-12-01

Credit Suisse and UBS will charge negative interests for cash clearing clients above a threshold. Last year such news was worth 250 bps, on December 3 only 28 bips. One remembers August 26, 2011, when UBS only spoke of negative interests and consequently EUR/CHF rose from 1.1420 to 1.1688. At the time FX traders …

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The Swiss National Bank straddle

2012-10-31

by David Keohane

2012-10-31

It’s Swiss National Bank reserve figures Wednesday! That glorious day when we get to see how exactly the ingredients of the SNB’s cake have changed. Or to put it more literally, how have they been dealing with the masses of euro assets they are colle...

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Strange movement in EUR/CHF in Asia session, a possible explanation

2012-10-09

by George Dorgan

2012-10-09

Strange movement in the EUR/CHF in the Asian session today The Asian session was a risk-on session, it recovered some of yesterday’s losses. After yesterday’s rather good HSBC services PMI, Shanghai Composite was up today by 1.97%. Therefore safe-havens like the yen and the Swissie were under pressure. At first, some Forex traders …

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Isn’t it wonderful to trade with a strong central bank behind you?

2012-09-13

by George Dorgan

2012-09-13

Isn’t it wonderful to have a strong central bank like the SNB sitting behind you when trading Forex? Losses are limited to the floor of 1.20 and in the meantime you can gain forward swaps with the higher euro zone interest rates. Today the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided in its monetary policy assessment …

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EUR/CHF, A History of Interventions: What markets say, July 2012

2012-07-31

by George Dorgan

2012-07-31

More Chatter About The EUR/CHF Peg The FT reports that Switzerland is ‘new China’ in currencies Chatter that the SNB was buying 3 billion francs worth of euros per day. “The picture is one of a central bank that’s not coping with how much money is coming in,” said Kit Juckes, foreign currency analyst at Société … Continue reading »

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EUR/CHF, A History of Interventions: What markets say, June 2012

2012-06-30

by George Dorgan

2012-06-30

SNB In A Bind With Euro Holdings Today’s reserve data showed skyrocketing reserves at the Swiss National Bank as they defend the EUR/CHF floor. Reserves were at 365B francs at the end of Q2 compared to 245B at the end of March, with all the growth coming in the final two months of the quarter … Continue reading »

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Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist Saxo Bank is buying in our arguments

2012-06-12

by George Dorgan

2012-06-12

Steen Jakobsen sees 25% percent chance that the floor breaks and if it does it breaks to parity. Last week Thomas Jordan removed any hopes on a hike of the EUR/CHF and invited smart money and hedge funds to a no-risk, high return game on the Swiss franc, which these gratefully accepted. After Morgan Stanley …

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Other blogs & info on SNB & CHF

EUR/CHF, A History of Interventions: May 2012

2012-05-31

by George Dorgan

2012-05-31

FT A Wee Bit Late To The Party… Notices Europeans have been buying Swiss francs and dollars. Who knew? By Jamie Coleman || May 30, 2012 at 19:43 GMT AUD/USD, NZD/USD Dragged Higher As EUR Recovers As Gerry mentioned earlier, the talk of a rescue fund for EZ banks seems to have set off some short covering … Continue reading »

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EUR/CHF, A History, Market Betting on Floor: March 2012

2012-03-31

by George Dorgan

2012-03-31

Nomura Touts EUR/CHF Longs Strategists there advise going long around the current levels, they say the floor will not break. They target 1.24. I have to agree. To me, it’s a question of buying low or buying a bit lower. By Adam Button || March 30, 2012 at 14:50 GMT EUR/CHF Touches One-Month Low Bounced off … Continue reading »

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Written in February 2012: Will the EUR/CHF never rise over 1.22 or 1.23 again?

Our analysis from February 2012 shows astonishing accurateness: It predicted that the euro would not rise against CHF and that the commodity currencies were overvalued and subject to correction. Basic foreign exchange theory, the SNB price stability mandate and strong fundamentals for Switzerland and bad ones for the peripheral countries of the euro zone speak for the thesis that the EUR/CHF exchange rate might never go over the level of around...

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