Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Bonds Are Turning a Corner | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-25

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(5/25/22) Bonds have started to turn a corner in recent weeks, picking up their non-correlation relative to equity prices--exactly what you want if you're using bonds as a hedge against a stock sell-off. Taking a look at interest rates for hints of where rates are heading reveals much about the economy, and where it's heading, as well. As slowing in April of the rate of growth of inflation allowed interest rates to rise, so did May's reports of...

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Unintended Consequences of Taxing the Rich

2022-05-25

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(5/25/22) Selling pressures continue in the markets, stringing together the most losing weeks since 1928, underscoring the importance of bonds as markets shift from inflation to growth priorities. Correlations and Causations of the Uvalde Shootings: coincidence of increased violence with growth in social media; the velocity of information makes it too easy to react & respond. Why catfish live longer; the rich who want to raise taxes...and the...

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Will Markets Give Up All of Monday’s Gains? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-24

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(5/24/22) Markets were able to hold support at last week's lows--and important test of the bottom, and a set up for a double-bottom. Unfortunately, markets are pointing lower following Snapchat's poor report, which is weighing on FAANG stocks, which in turn are placing a drag on the S&P. A commonality of recent weeks has been a rally that gets sold-into, which has been the heart of the negative pressure on the 20-DMA. Price declines are also...

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Dealing with Negative News in a Positive Way

2022-05-24

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(5/24/22) Thanks to Snapchat and Mega, and their impact on FAAG stocks, markets sold off last week's gains. Price action remains negative; is relief on the horizon? LA Port activity smoothing out. Bad geopolitical news further weighs on markets, investors, and advisors: How to handle negative news in making investing decisions. At Davos 2022, Ray Daleo says "cash is trash;" why does the Dollar continue to strengthen" We're the...

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Why a 20% Correction Does Not a Bear Market Make | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-23

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(5/23/22) Breaking through the markets' 20% barrier does not a bear market make, regardless of breathless media commentary. 20% off today's S&P is merely a correction, thanks to the lone-term bullish trend of rising prices remains well intact. On Friday, buying came in in the late afternoon, holding onto support established earlier last week. Markets are looking to move higher this morning--an indication that the bottom could hold, and the...

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Why the Recession Will Be Here Later than Expected

2022-05-23

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(5/23/22) The Dow is now stringing together 8-weeks of losses--its worst performance since the 1920's. Contrary to media claims of a bear market, the 20% drop is but a correction on the road to Bubblization: This will be The Most Forecasted Recession in history. Graduation Weekend at the Roberts' house; Davos 2022 = Pinky & The Brain. When all the experts agree, something else is bound to happen; why buy & hold doesn't work at the wrong end...

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Dealing with Healthcare Costs in Retirement

2022-05-21

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(5/20/22) Waiting for the Bounce: Some people just aren't cut out to invest in stocks; Richard Rosso's Investing Opera; Why does Elon Musk want Twitter? Musk says ESG is a scam; ORFN--the anti-woke fund; the truth about Bitcoin; the positives of a Bear Markets: needed cleansing. How we're managing against inflation. Why you shouldn't benchmark to the top. Gasoline prices & biking in Houston; Healthcare costs in Retirement; using HSA's as a...

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Warnings from Target Sink Stocks: What’s Next? REV | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-19

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(5/19/22) Target and Walmart's warnings about future earnings pulled the rug out from under stocks Wednesday, essentially reversing all of the previous gains, going back to last week. The data suggests a recession is near, if not already here. (We raised cash in anticipation of the worst.) The current level of resistance will be important for markets to break above in order to get the rally back on track. Negative money flows have improved,...

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The Market Reversal Episode (5/19/22): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Inves…

2022-05-19

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#Markets #Money #Investing

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Is the Reflex Rally Over?

2022-05-18

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Target and Walmart reporting less than expected earnings, and missing by a mile, as they cite higher price pressure and building inventories. This would suggest we have likely seen the peak of inflation, along with slower consumer activity--both are pre-recessionary indicators that are also disinflationary.

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Consumer Sugar-rush is Over – What To Do Now?

2022-05-18

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(5/18/22) What misses by Amazon, Target, and WalMart are telling us about the state of the consumer, which is the backbone of the economy. Markets remain in a well-defined downtrend, but are working off an over-sold status. All the free money that came into the economy is gone--here comes the post-sugar rush crash. The part of Keynesian Economics that everyone misses; Why proprietary investment vehicles might not be a good idea: No transferability...

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How to Use Market Rally to Reduce Risk | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-17

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(5/17/22) Stocks are looking to open sharply higher following yesterday's consolidation and advance. This makes three "green" days in a row, providing more lift to markets in the short term. Our initial target on SPY is still 416--at the 20-DMA, the first level of resistance, and also part of the current downtrend. The next level up will be 430 or 431. We will want to use any rally to dell into and reduce risk. If markets are able to...

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The Year of Shortages & High Inflation

2022-05-17

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(5/17/22) Congress is investigating UFO's while the economy is running off the rails and inflation rages. Market performance and "cash on the sidelines;" the worst start to the year for markets since The Great Depression; the Year of Shortages and high prices now includes a baby formula shortage that was self-inflicted; negative sentiment is so prevalent, it has crept into consumer behavior; why Ben Bernanke didn't want to...

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What do Kim Kardashian & The Market Have in Common? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-16

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(5/16/22) Markets put in a big bottom last week--at least for the short term. Even though markets finished down for the day on Thursday, they rallied back above the open, setting up a green candle, and establishing a test of the level at three standard-deviations from the 50-DMA. Friday's subsequent rally pushed the index up to within two standard-deviations from the 50-DMA, and got close to triggering a money flow buy signal in a market that was...

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Time to Reconsider Bitcoin?

2022-05-16

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(5/16/22) Markets' performance last week would tend to set-up for an opportunity to rally--but will it stick? Analysts' earnings estimates are still way too high; comparing nuclear explosions, road trip cuisine vs gas station food; what we don't want to see today. Markets are doing their best to frustrate investors; use the coming rally to correct mistakes. The saga of Chicken Salad Chick; Why Joe Biden's Deficit Reduction plan will fail; fun with...

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Cryptocoins Under Pressure | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-12

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(5/12/22) Markets remain under pressure after April CPI numbers show hotter-than-expected inflation. But looking at longer-term charts can give a better understanding of where we've been...and where we're going. Are we over-bought, or over-sold, and where is the downside risk, and where is the potential support, moving forward? The S&P is currently 3-standard-deviations below the 50-week Moving Average, and money flow indicators are also...

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Inflation: The Hotter the Better?

2022-05-12

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(5/12/22) (5/12/22) Inflation is running hotter than the Fed would like; the major indexes are masking the reality of underlying stocks' plight; dealing with margin debt is playing a role in market's performance; 4 out of 8 CPI sectors were elevated in April--oddly, Energy was not one of them. Month/Month and Year/Year comparisons actually showed a decline; former Fed'er Bill Dudley continues to call out the FOMC for its "handling" of the...

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Will CPI Be Sticky? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-11

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(5/11/22) The CPI inflation print for April could affect markets today--will it come in softly, or reflect a stronger print from April 2021. If inflation wanes, will the Fed be less aggressive? If so, that's an encouraging sign for growth stocks in particular. The market Tuesday did try to rally, but failed; markest are still deeply over-sold on every metric we track, so a lot of fuel remains for a rally. Any good news on inflation would tend to...

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Beware of Recency Bias!

2022-05-11

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(5/11/22) Utopia vs Dystopia is like theory vs reality: Why the Government's solution for fighting inflation never works; Should you buy the dip? Why buy the market bottom is a bear trap for investors; the best investment I ever made; what advisors are telling people that's good and bad; recency bias and investor psychology; contrarian investing strategies; Benchmarking progress over a two-year span; Why you should get out of the market now....

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Sentiment is So Bearish, It’s Bullish | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-10

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(5/10/22) Markets have been deeply over-sold, with sentiment so bearish, it's bullish. Be careful not to throw in the towel, just yet. Markets did sell-off all day Monday, resulting in one of the top-five leading sell-off days in history for retail investors. At three standard deviations below the mean, the S&P is trading 11% below the 200-DMA. But just last year, we were talking about the S&P trading 12% above the mean, setting up for a...

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