Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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What Happens when the Fed Takes Away the Punchbowl?

2022-01-07

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The Markets' Wednesday reaction to Fed Minutes on Rasing Rates was the worst on record--but was it justified? Will the Fed's panic attack result in another collossal policy blunder? A long term look at Automobile sector and chip fiascos. Is the Fed's "normalization" the rigth approach? 1:27 - Market Reaction to Fed: Worst Response on Record? 12:30 - Will the Fed Panic into Another Policy Mistake? 28:27 - How Does the Fed Clear Its Balance...

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Was Wednesday’s Market Sell-off All That Bad?

2022-01-06

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(1/6/22) Markets' sharp sell off on Fed Minutes stating a reduction of its balance sheet--essentially, taking away the punch bowl and hiding it. But was it all so bad? Looking at Market performance from a longer-term perspective, going back to March 2020, the correction we saw yesterday is well within the norms of the bullish trend under which we've been operating. But--is this time different? The pattern of rallies, consolidation, and re-testing...

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Why Does the Fed Always Raise Rates at the Wrong Time?

2022-01-06

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What Happens when Biden Child Tax Credit Leaves? Will 2022 be a year of higher volatility? What happens as liquidity leaves the market and things return to "normal?" Why does the Fed always raise rates at the wrong time? 1:51 - The Aftermath of Excess Liquidity 13:07 - Will Liquidity and Speculation Define 2022? 29:03 -What Happens When the Liquidity Leaves? 43:03 -Being Responsive, not Reactive to Markets Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief...

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Markets Return to a Familiar Pattern

2022-01-05

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(1/5/22) Markets are getting their mojo back following the Santa Claus rally in December, in a repetition of a pattern we've observed over the past year. At some point, we'll likely see this break out to the downside. Of particular note is the next Options Expiration in the third week of the month, because all previous corrections to the 50-DMA have occurred in the weeks of options expirations. The risk of a correction to the 50-DMA is not out of...

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Investor Resolutions for 2022

2022-01-05

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Market commentary on the first 5-days of January, and why 4Q prints should be great; the Fed's challenge is how to raise raises 4x this year. Investor resolutions and secrets of the Gymnasium biz; good resolutions require sacrifice; markets' high flyers take a tumble; hard to take Wall St. seriously amid portfolio re-jiggering. 1:51 - Market Performance for 1st 5-Days of January 13:04 - Gymnasium Business & Investor Resolutions 29:05 - Investor...

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What Are Bonds Doing While Stocks Rally to all-time highs?

2022-01-04

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(1/4/22) A big conundrum in 2022 will be the impact of inflation and tighter monetary policy effects on interest rates, which will impact economic growth and financial markets because of the relationship between the risk-free aspect rate vs. equity valuations. Rising inflation would suggest a hike in levels of interest rates pacing inflation. We control our portfolio risk by lengthening or shortening the duration of our bond holdings. With falling...

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2022 Preview Episode

2022-01-04

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Our New Year Market preview, and the funny thing about averages; will bullish trend continue? Geopolitics, mid-terms, and policy changes; warning against recency bias; how job births & deaths impact reality; NFIB reporting vs small cap stocks' performance; why small cap business confidence matters. 0:00 - Will 2022 Be a Year of More Market Volatility? 8:02 - Will Bullish Mood Continue? 24:02 - Birth & Death & Job Creation 38:04 - Small...

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What’s In Store for 2022?

2022-01-03

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(1/3/22) What will the first trading day of 2022 portend for markets? Who can tell? The first five days of January tend to be fairly positive as mutual funds position themselves for the new year. Markets did finish higher for the end of the year, and trends remain positive. Money Flow signals are moving into overbought territory, and by mid-month, we may see a pullback towards the 50-DMA. However, the risk of a short-term correction will likely...

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Markets’ assault on the 50- and 20-DMA

2021-12-23

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Markets' assault on the 50- and 20-DMA achieve better support for rally-mode, albeit on weaker volume and strength; will 2022 be 2020, too? The dirty little secret about Tesla batteries; the hypocrisy of taxing the rich; Zappo CEO & proper estate planning; Christmas traditions; preparing for returns in 2022. 1:35 -Has the Santa rally Begun? 12:46 - Replacing Tesla Batteries: Elon vs Cherokee Liz 28:46 - Christmas Movies, Viking Burials, &...

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Happy Holidays from RIA Advisors

2021-12-22

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We are on a break for the holidays from Thursday (12/23) through the end of the year. We will return with live video content on Monday, January 3, 2022. In the meantime, please visit our website for audio podcasts to hold you over during the Yule Tide: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/podcasts/ Thanks for your support during the past year. We look forward to entertaining, informing, and serving you in the New Year! #Markets #Money #Investing

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Did the Santa Claus Rally Commence?

2021-12-22

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(12/22/21) Following three straight days of selling, markets had a nice, strong rebound, climbing above the 50- and 20-DMA's, clearing the way for a bit of a rally. The not-so-good news was the relative weakness in volume, breadth, with not a lot of commitment in either direction. Markets are looking to move marginally higher today, putting us potentially into Rally-mode during the last five-days of the year, next week. Stocks that have been...

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Will Markets Keep Their Rally Today?

2021-12-21

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(12/21/21) Following Monday's sell-off, will markets keep their rally today? One thing to be careful of is what you read in the headlines--they're almost always wrong about what's happening in the markets. Despite the "rise of Omicron," and the "failure of the BBB plan" leading to yesterday's sell-off, the decline has been going on for the last three days in this time of the year: mutual fund distributions and tax-loss selling,...

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The Biggest Risks in 2022 (Hint: It’s not the Fed)

2021-12-21

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Omicron Tests w dire warnings of death, and the temporary defeat of the BBB Bill are NOT why Markets skidded Monday; news headlines are bigger risks than the Fed because of emotional impact; importance of risk management protocol in place; recalibration of CPI and inflation; Michael Lebowitz' "Speculation Index." 1:32 - When will the Selling Stop? 12:52 - Why the Fed is Not Investors' Biggest Risk 28:44 - Will Value vs Growth Be Back in...

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How Supply Chain Disruptions Stole Christmas

2021-12-21

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It's a holiday-shortened trading week with Christmas on Saturday; will Santa show on Broad & Wall, or no? The BBB (Build Back Better bill) is DOA; how supply chain interruptions have impacted Christmas and cars; economic cycle explained: Supply vs Demand & demand & Demand; the problem w depending on government to solve "You" problems; Investor Psychology & ignoring emotion; 1:32 - There's No Guarantee Santa is Coming to...

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Is Santa Coming or Not?

2021-12-20

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(12/20/21) It's the week before Christmas, and all through the house, we're starting to think Santa is some kind of louse. There are implications from the denial of the Build Back Better Bill, with Goldman reducing economic growth forecasts for 2022 because the resultant extraction of liquidity from the market. This also suggests more pressure on profit margins with high rates of inflation as we head into the new year. Expect light trading during...

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Why Conversations About Money Are Gifts

2021-12-18

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The Joy of Chocolate; Markets' response to Fed announcement; 10 Financial Resolutions for 2022; How businesses are dealing with inflation; Louis L'Amour & Leon Hale; Conversations about money are gifts; What's your Money Story? ------ 1:28 - 10 Financial Resolutions for 2022 12:42 - Dealing with Inflation for the Holidays 12:37 - Conversations About Money are Gifts 42:41 - Five Wishes for Your Family Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of...

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The REAL Reason Jerome Powell is Protecting the Markets

2021-12-17

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Markets respond positively to Fed plans for three rate hikes in 2022...and more to come; What's Jerome Powell really doing? Wrapping up 2021 & prepping for '22: Headwinds we're seeing next year; why stronger dollar will stunt economic growth. ------ 1:11 -What the Fed Said; What the Markets Did; What's next 11:55 - Why Jerome Powell is Really Protecting the Markets 27:55 - How to Position Your Portfolio for 2022 41:53 - Why a Stronger Dollar...

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Don’t Be Fooled by the Market Rally on Fed News

2021-12-16

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(12/16/21) Markets loved the Fed's announcement that tapering will commence, and the rate of change in rates will be accelerate: Three interest rate hikes in 2022, and three more in 2023. If inflation continues to rage (now termed "non-transitory"), there is a likelihood those rate hikes will become even more fast and furious. This more-hawkish mood of the Fed did not deter markets, rising sharply on the announcement, and the S&P...

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As the Fed rolls out its plan, what’s the best way to use your cash?

2021-12-16

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Is the Fed replicating policy mistakes of the past? A look at the metamorphosis of Jerome Powell, and an examination of Retail vs Internet Sales this holiday season. ------ 1:35 - The Fed is About to Do Nothing Unexpected 12:46 - Why The Fed is Doing It Backwards 28:45 - Candid Coffee 1/15/22 Preview 30:27 - A Roberts Christmas 32:10 - The Evolution of Jerome Powell 42:53 - Retail vs Internet Sales Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist...

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How to Set Stop Limits

2021-12-15

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(12/15/21) Here's an inside look at the technical parameters we use to set up stop losses on positions in our portfolios. "Setting a stop" is like drawing a line in the sand, beyond which you are not willing to lose money on a stock. Let's look at Apple--a stock that's currently trading at three standard deviations above its moving average--which is very extended, and ripe for a pullback. The first thing you might want to do is take...

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