Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice
3-10-26 The Benefits Talk Every Business Owner Needs
Consider this the money talk your Dad would have given you if he knew everything about running a business. Jon Penn and Tom Allen provide straight-talking advice, walking you through exactly how to build a benefits and retirement strategy that works for you AND your employees. No jargon. No sales pitch. Just the kind of honest, experienced advice two dads would give their own kids sitting across the kitchen table.
#TwoDadsOnMoney...
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The Oil Curve: Scary Headlines vs. Market Expectations
Rather than relying on Wall Street forecasts, scary headlines, and fear-mongering social media posts, the oil futures curve provides the collective judgment of future oil prices from the most informed and financially committed market participants — traders, producers, refiners, and […] The post The Oil Curve: Scary Headlines vs. Market Expectations appeared first on RIA.
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3-9-26 Retail Investors Keep Buying Every War Dip
Despite rising geopolitical tensions and constant headlines about the Iran conflict, the stock market has remained largely range-bound.
One key reason is aggressive retail dip-buying. Data from order-flow activity shows retail investors piling into stocks and ETFs at the highest levels in years, stepping in on nearly every pullback.
While the index appears flat, rapid rotations between value and growth are creating opportunities beneath the...
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3-9-26 IRA’s – The Ticking Tax Bomb
Is your IRA a ticking tax time bomb?
Most retirement savers don't realize that every dollar sitting in a traditional IRA will eventually be taxed — and you may have little say over when, how much, or at what rate.
Danny Ratliff & Sarah Buenger break down the three critical dimensions of IRA tax planning: a proactive multi-year conversion strategy, the risks of doing nothing, and legacy planning considerations that could determine how much...
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Technical Deterioration: Risk Management Is Key
The S&P 500 closed at 6,740 on Friday, its lowest level since mid-December, as technical deterioration, collapsing payrolls, and $100 oil converged on the charts. Every major moving average has broken. Here’s what comes next. The S&P 500 closed at […] The post Technical Deterioration: Risk Management Is Key appeared first on RIA.
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The Dollar Not Oil Is The Real Story
The Iran conflict has dominated the headlines, with the financial media primarily focusing on rising oil prices. While higher oil prices can certainly impact the economy, the dollar’s surge, which we hear little of, is an equally consequential market and […] The post The Dollar Not Oil Is The Real Story appeared first on RIA.
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3-8-26 Why Passive Investing Isn’t Really Passive & Why It Matters
Passive investing is often misunderstood. Many investors believe buying ETFs makes them passive, but frequent trading, sector rotation, and performance chasing turn it into active behavior.
Instead of picking individual stocks, investors are actively trading baskets of stocks.
As the late John Bogle warned, the ability to trade ETFs intraday encourages investors to act on emotion and timing decisions.
The result is that many “passive”...
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Oppenheimer: The Risk Calculus Has Changed
🔎 At a Glance Give Us A Review ***** If you enjoy our work each week, could you be so kind as to leave us a review? It would be most appreciated. 🏛️ Market Brief - Markets Navigate Military Conflict It was a brutal week on Wall Street. The S&P 500 finished at its lowest close … Continue reading »
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3-6-26 The Market’s Biggest Blind Spot Right Now
Markets often become complacent during strong rallies, with investors focusing on bullish narratives while ignoring potential risks.
Last year, the dominant story was AI, while this year the debate has shifted to whether massive CapEx spending will actually translate into real revenue growth.
However, unexpected events—such as geopolitical tensions with Iran and rising oil prices—can quickly challenge those narratives and force markets to...
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3-6-26 Diversification Is Not Risk Management
Most investors believe diversification protects them from risk. It does not.
Richard Rosso breaks down what diversification actually does, what it does not do, and why confusing it with risk management can quietly damage your portfolio over time.
We also tackle one of the most overlooked questions in retirement planning: do you actually need long-term care insurance?
Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP...
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USD Stablecoins And The Rebasement Of The US Dollar
The “fiat is dying” argument has become a catchphrase narrative among digital asset bulls, gold bugs, and cryptocurrency advocates. That narrative's core is that central banks have printed vast amounts of money. The "money printing" has led to currency debasement and rendered the U.S. dollar obsolete. We discussed this "debasement" narrative previously. The narrative is …
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Will Oil Prices Unleash A Wave Of Inflation?
Bloomberg writes: "Iran War Oil ShockThreatens to Unleash Wave of Global Inflation." To be fair, the article is not as pessimistic as the title suggests. However, the fear that significantly higher, sustained oil prices will unleash a wave of inflation is gaining popularity and merits discussion. We start with math to address the historical relationship …
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3-5-26 Stronger Economic Data Beneath Iran Headlines & Implications For Fed Policy
While headlines are dominated by the Iran operation, important economic data beneath the surface is showing improvement.
Manufacturing has moved back into expansion territory, the services sector is seeing a sharp increase in activity, and recent employment data came in stronger than expected. These signals suggest economic momentum may be strengthening after a softer period at the end of 2025.
At the same time, prices paid in the services...
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3-5-26 Passive Aggressive Market: Bogle’s Warning Came True
Are passive investors really passive? Not anymore.
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down how index funds and ETFs — the tools designed for patient, long-term investing — have quietly become weapons of short-term speculation.
#PassiveInvesting #ETFStrategy #IndexFunds #SectorRotation #JohnBogle
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Credit Spreads Are Widening: Omen Or No Bother?
Increasing corporate credit spreads, or a growing divergence between corporate bond yields and similar-maturity Treasury yields, can be an omen of stock market weakness. Recent troublesome defaults in the private credit markets are showing signs of spreading concern to the more liquid corporate debt markets. Thus, it's appropriate to review corporate credit spreads. in the …
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3-4-26 Iran Conflict: What It Means for Oil, Inflation, & The Dollar
Geopolitical tensions with Iran sparked fears that a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices sharply higher. But markets have been calmer than expected. After briefly spiking above $80, oil pulled back to around $74 as Trump’s response helped stabilize shipping risks.
While higher oil prices could temporarily push up gasoline prices and create short-term inflationary pressure, energy is not the primary driver of the CPI, which...
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3-4-26 Q & A Wednesday: Ask Us Anything
Are you watching the market and wondering what's really going on?
Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff dive straight into YOUR questions — pulled live from the chat — covering the stock market outlook, what sectors to watch, and how investors should be positioning right now.
No fluff, no filler — just real talk about where the market's heading and what it means for YOUR portfolio.
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts,...
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The Passive Aggressive Market: Bogle’s Warning Came True
Since the pandemic, the line between passive investing and aggressive speculation has blurred. The current bout of speculative fervor extends beyond financial markets. For instance, we see the same impulse in the explosion of sports betting and the surge in event-betting sites like Kalshi and Polymarket. In the investment arena, margin debt is at record …
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Middle East Military Conflicts And Stocks
The question for investors is how the Iranian conflict will affect the stock market. The markets' initial reaction on Sunday was concern as the S&P 500 fell by over 1%, crude oil rose nearly 10%, and precious metals rallied. Within 12 hours, many of the substantial gains or losses, except oil, were reversed. However, stocks, …
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3-3-36 It’s Not Iran — We Have Private Credit Cracking
Markets aren’t under pressure just because of Iran. The bigger issue is stress building in private credit.
Blackstone’s large private credit fund is facing record redemptions above its limits, following earlier cracks in the sector.
That raises liquidity concerns and is weighing on technology stocks.
Geopolitical headlines grab attention, but tightening credit and redemption pressure are the real risks investors should be watching right now....
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