Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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The Simplicity of Bonds

2023-10-10

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They're the simplest, yet least-understood investment. What interest rates mean; Sin stocks, ESG, & FAANG stocks: knowing the narrative. Stocks vs Bonds & relative valuations (with charts!) What Howard Marks said; Why interest rates and bond yields go up and down; psychology is a difficult factor in portfolio management. 0:30 - The Thing About Bonds 9:59 - Sin Stocks, ESG's, & FAANG Stocks vs Bonds Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief...

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The Flight to Safety? (10/10/23)

2023-10-10

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(10/10/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Flirt w 200-DMA" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz ------- Our previous show is here: "2% Inflation is a Misnomer" &list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- Get more info...

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Bone Yields Explained

2023-10-06

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(10/9/23) Why are bond yields going up? Looking at liquidation event = $50b in one week; is something in the financial system beginning to break? Bond Yields explains; Yield & Coupons are different thing; coupons = interest rate. Girl Math vs Guy Math. There's blood all over the Bond Market; what happens next? SEG-1 - Why are Bond Yields going up? SEG-2 - Bond Yields Explained Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts,...

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The Disconnect Between Pre-retirement & Reality

2023-10-06

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(10/6/23) Elvis Rosso: Yields, Yields, Yields; American's are spending like there's no tomorrow; why we recommend "The Millionaire Next Door;" How to vacation post-pandemic; camping in Buc-cee's. The downside of the lockdown; credit card rate survey; vacation spending vs money scripts: Money is emotional. Money needs shift when children arrive; talking to kids about money. Creating savings buckets for specific needs; noting the frugality...

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What do 90’s Hairdo’s and Long Term Capital Management Have in Common?

2023-10-05

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(10/5/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors hief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, IO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, FA Produced by Brent lanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "ould the Market orrection Go Deeper?" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will October Provide a Trick or Treat for...

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Progression Planning for a Life Well-Lived

2023-10-04

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(9/30/23) Richard Rosso & Danny Ratliff explore the sensitive subject of how to plan for your demise. 0:00 - Intro/Disclaimer 1:24 - What is "Progression Planning?" 3:06 - Jumping through emotional hurdles 9:40 - Communication Ideas 14:02 - The Documents You Need 29:20 - Digital Assets 34:50 - Important Resources 41:14 - Long Term Care 43:10 - Digitizing Memories 45:14 - How we can help 48:41 - Q&A: How to avoid the Probate...

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Is Something in the Financial System Beginning to Break?

2023-10-04

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(10/4/23) There's a new job opening in ongress: Speaker of the House can be filled by any US citizen. We recommend Newt Gingrich or Judge Ted Poe (likely neither want the gig). Was yesterday's market action a 'liquidation event?' JOLTS data within a downward trend; market sell off to test the 200-DMA. This is a normal correction underway; could it go lower? Homeless Pirates now the scourge of Northern alifornia (where's apt. Phillips?); speeding...

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Will October Provide a Trick or Treat for Investors?

2023-10-03

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(10/3/23) Investors are looking for stronger economic data; positioning is beginning to emerge for End-of-year; 2024 will be different, with companies' debt maturing and refinancing at higher rates. VIX has been on the rise since September, seeming now to peak. What happened to all those "de-dollarization" stories? The currency is over-bought following a dollar rally. What the ISM is telling us; cycles are sentiment-based. Look for a...

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Congress Kicks the Can Down the Road (again)

2023-10-02

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(10/2/23) Free the Pumpkins, it's October 2nd! Student Loan payments resume, and markets prepare for another earnings season. Expectations have declined, and markets are setting up for a technical rally into 2024. Market futures are flat following the aversion of government shutdown with (another) continued resolution. Why CR's are not good for the economy; mandatory spending explained (it's 2% of GDP). Mandatory Spending = 113% of revenue...

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The Flaws in Secure Act 2.0

2023-09-29

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(9/29/23) Candy Corn martini's & market commentary; why Larry Fink won't be surprised with higher structural inflation: Permatory inflation. No one is ready for rates to be higher for longer. The uptick in 401-k loans and why we can't save: More credit card debt, car payments, and mortgage payments. Flaw in Secure Act 2.0: Elimination of some catch-up provisions. Boosting the Roth: Paying taxes now before taxes increase, which they will. Mrs....

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Is the Fed Walking Into a Trap?

2023-09-28

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(9/28/23) The second Republican debate, Halloween decorations, and a scary market: Understanding what drives the economy. Reviewing oil price history & how commodity prices are driven; markets cycle over time. the VIX & Market volatility: weaker prices = higher volatility. Looking for a reversal in the index as quarter-end rebalancing occurs. GDP Revision: How strong is the economy, really? GDP vs GDI: divergence is a prelude to recession....

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More Nonsense from Jamie Dimon (9/27/23)

2023-09-27

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(9/27/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Markets Retest the Downside Today?" is here: _gLGYsk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will the Fed Be Wronger for...

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Are Compound Market Returns a Myth?

2023-09-26

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(9/26/23) Some market volatility due to quarter-end rebalancing of portfolios. Some downside risk remains. Markets are in search of a catalyst, and trading at the mercy of rebalancing activity. Compounding Market Returns: Mythical or real? Albert Einstein called compound interest the 8th Wonder of the World. It's not the same with market returns (charts for illustration). Calculating yield and coupons for bond investors; understanding investing...

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September Market Wrap-up (9/25/23)

2023-09-25

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(9/25/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Post-Meeting Fed = Opportunity" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Fed Too Hawkish Now?" -E&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=17s...

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What to Do When Trump Tax Cuts Expire

2023-09-22

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(9/22/23) The Trump tax cuts of 2017 temporarily doubled the base amount individuals could give away without paying estate taxes to $10 million. These cuts are due to expire in 2026, pushing wealthy Americans to move fast. The Oscar Meyer Weinermobile is returning; Jerome Powell & the shrinking market; the resilience of the consumer is weakening, cooling down. Candid Coffee preview of Progression Planning presentation: Having the Conversation;...

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Is the Fed Too Hawkish Now? (9/21/23)

2023-09-21

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(9/21/23) Our FOMC Meeting review & analysis, hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA. Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Are Markets Close to Trigger Point?" is here: -ToNbB-E&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here:...

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The Way You Invest in Bonds is WRONG!

2023-09-20

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(9/20/23) It's FOMC Day: Rate decision and economic forecasts + the Powell presser. Two questions remain: Is the Fed done, and when will the rate cuts begin? Are we doing Bonds wrong? A discussion based upon an article in MarketWatch: Why investors seeking stability always go for US Bonds vs international debt? FedEx reports = barometer on retail sales; General Mills & the Cereal Index: the cost of feeding kids at breakfast; Danny pays his kid...

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Bond Vigilantes & The Waiting for Godot

2023-09-19

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(9/18/23) The term “Bond Vigilantes” is a nostalgic twist on an old-west theme. In the nineteenth century, the American West formed self-appointed groups, or committees, to seize the duties of law enforcement and judicial authority in situations when citizens found law enforcement lacking or inadequate. In the bond market, the term “Bond Vigilante” was first coined by Ed Yardeni in 1980 when bond traders sold Treasurys in response to the growing...

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Will There Be October Weakness Before a Year End Run?

2023-09-19

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(9/19/23) What's wrong with prepping for Halloween...in September? Fed meeting preview; earnings season is all but done, oil prices are creeping up, most over-bought commodity, so look for a pullback; Dovish Fed & Market consolidation continues w suppressed volatility. Will there be weakness in October to set up for run into the end of the year? (Charts & graphs) Why Fed GDP growth projections are too high (and never correct). Lower...

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The Economy Trifecta This Month

2023-09-18

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(9/18/23) Last week's market pressure came from economic numbers; this week, it's the Fed meeting, and the 'will they, won't they' question about raising rates. Most likely, the Fed will hold steady with not rate hike this month. There is an economic trifecta bearing down on markets: The resumption of student loan payments, the UAW strike, and the renewed threat of a government shutdown. September seems to be a month of significance: Historically,...

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