Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Employment Report Preview

2023-07-06

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(7/6/23) What to watch for this earnings season: What is the quality of earnings--are companies selling more stuff? Is corporate outlooks still strong? Employment Report tomorrow (7/7) is markets' focus. Pressure is on for Long-term Bonds. Janet Yellen goes to China; Is the whole Employment calculation being done incorrectly? If employment is strong, improvement in services resulting in expansion = inflationary: This is not an environment for...

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Welcome to the Second-half of 2023

2023-07-05

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(7/5/23) Welcome to the second-half of 2023: Q2 earnings season is revving up, as markets' performance divergence from economic indicators creates the question: Who's right, and where to now? What about the Wealth Gap, the Wealth Effect, and Consumer Confidence? Earnings season commences with massive cuts in earnings estimates (so that the beat rate will be high!) What about the Quality of earnings and revenue? Reported earnings since the pandemic...

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Lessons from the Luling Watermelon Thump

2023-06-30

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(6/30/23) Markets appear to be breaking out of the malaise; when does the market train run out of steam? Lessons from the Luling Watermelon Thump (IYKYK): a.) Don't eat all of the chicken all at once; b.) Don't owe nothing to nobody; c.) The heat won't kill you until it does; d.) Hay is gold; e.) Small amount of quality over a stack o' nothing (buy in the middle); f.) The past has a place, but don't forget the present; g.) You can fool yourself,...

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Is Helping Adult Children Financially a Good Idea?

2023-06-29

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(7/4/23) When helping adult children financially hurts, them AND you. The benefit of making kids learn early to pay taxes. Learning to use debt strategically. Paying back the student loans working at Sam's Club. SEG-1: Consumer Confidence & Expectations on the Rise; The Fed: "Drat!" SEG-2: Why Lower Interest Rates are NOT Coming Bank SEG-3: When Helping Your Adult Children Hurts--Them and You. SEG-4: Paying Back Debt; No...

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Is a Recession Yet to Come?

2023-06-29

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(6/29/23) Yankee pitch a perfect game, as Bank Stress tests all reveal perfect scores(!); no bailout required. Yet. Markets are still betting on lower rates, but liquidity remains. Money market accounts are in high-demand. Yield curves suggest Recession is still to come. The economy is based on debt: New Debt and Old Debt. Jerome Powell says more rate hikes to come. The Yankee's perfect games (4): all pitchers' names begin with "D." Who's...

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Larry Fink’s ESG Change of Heart

2023-06-28

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(7/3/23) Larry Fink has a change of heart about ESG? The scam that is ESG. For real change, boycott the companies (Blackrock) that invest in "woke" businesses; literally move your money away from Blackrock. Lance lays out the evidence. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The full show from which this segment is excerpted can be found here:...

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Why Lower Interest Rates Are NOT Coming Back

2023-06-28

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(6/28/23) Consumer confidence is on the rise, along with company expectations; the Fed says, "Drat!" Rising markets ease economic conditions, which will bring inflation back into the economy. Trade sanctions against China could deflate markets; AI has been the "new theme" this year. Danny's Canadian travelogue. Why low interest rates are NOT good for the economy; rates are always a function of economic growth. Howard Marks on...

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Could “Revised” Economic Data Drive Rates Higher?

2023-06-27

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(6/27/23) The Quarter's end nears and markets face increased selling pressure as portfolio managers rebalance holdings. There is still room for a 5- to 10% correction this summer. MACD Sell signal is now in place, with $26-B worth of potential selling on the line. There is now a bigger risk from inflation data revisions; is there too much market exuberance? Whoa--Larry Fink has a change of heart about ESG? The scam that is ESG. For real change,...

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Is FOMO Back as Markets Correct?

2023-06-26

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(6/26/23) Weekend recap: The coup that was over before it started; everyone is now a deep-sea exploration expert. Thanks, Internet. End of Quarter dynamics are toying with markets: What will be seen in Q-2 results? Portfolio rebalancing by fund managers create sector rotation & selling pressure. Markets will re-test 20-DMA. Buy signals drive markets; when sell signals are triggered two things may happen: a.) market consolidation sideways, or...

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How You, too, Can Retire at 55

2023-06-23

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(6/23/23) HOUR ONE: Stories from Texas families; Market commentary: The Fed's Kabosh on Inflation: Muckflation; slow-grinding stagflation as liquidity is drained from the system. Why Roths are the J. G. Wentworth for the Gov't.; Tax benefits of a Roth; dodging the tax torpedo. Scarlet & Flo: Bring back 'Kiss my Grits;' the most-popular US migration destination cities; Why did Darden purchase Ruth's Chris' as affluent shoppers flock to Dollar...

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How to Retire at 55 (6/23/23): A special, two-hour edition with Market Analysis & Personal Financ…

2023-06-23

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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The Fed’s Nirvana Moment

2023-06-22

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(6/22/23) HOUR ONE: Investor sentiment vs Consumer sentiment: This is problematic for the Fed; a re-acceleration of Inflation? Housing is beginning to stabilize, with shallow inventory keeping prices high. What is moving Markets: Swiss & UK interest rate increases; Inflation is NOT coming down. the Fed's not done, despite falling headline inflation. YOY inflation may be at zero, but prices remain high. Core inflation remains high; when will the...

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Forecast: More Rate Hikes (6/22/23): A special two-hour edition with Market Analysis & Commentary…

2023-06-22

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Will Student Loan Repayments Choke the Economy?

2023-06-22

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(6/21/23) HOUR ONE: Two days of Fed speak commence today: Will markets even notice? Liquidity is still rising, easing economic conditions the Fed is trying to tighten. Update on the Titanic Sub Search; The ESG Scam: Does nothing for the environment. Is ESG behind us? Are we targeting the wrong companies with boycotts? Don't buy Black Rock stocks; why enrich Larry Fink? Rolling recession and market resiliency: What could alter this dynamic? Student...

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Has the Correction Started? (6/21/23): A special two-hour edition with Market Analysis & Commenta…

2023-06-21

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Why #AI Is Little More Than BS

2023-06-20

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6/20/23) HOUR ONE: It's the start of a holiday-shortened trading week, and the end of the Quarter is near. Sentiment reports from Consumers and Home Builders, plus leading economic indicators, which have been negative for the past 13-months. A turn in these signals could prove that we've seen (and passed) a trough in economic numbers. Roberts Travel plans will NOT include deep sea dives to shipwrecks; What's driving the AI chase? What is the thesis...

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Headwinds for #AI (6/20/23): A special two-hour edition with Technical Market Analysis & Commenta…

2023-06-20

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Fed’s Plans Thwarted as Consumer Confidence Improves

2023-06-19

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(6/19/23) [HOUR-1] Consumer Confidence improves based on recent sales numbers; this would appear to be thwarting the Fed's plans to reign-in spending. End of the Quarter Rebalancing underway w AI effects preeminent. A note about Texas Heat; Boomers are stuck on Stocks; is this the prelude to a bust? How the Internet changed the world; what happens when expectations for exponential growth never occurs. Similar potential for same disruption from AI....

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Strategies for Managing High-balance Credit Cards

2023-06-16

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(6/16/23) Fathers Day weekend & Dad jokes abound; everything AI; Jerome Powell says there's still work to be done on taming inflation. Why is Gen-Z reverting more to cash? Cash is King! A discussion on the importance of building credit; NerdWallet.com list of best credit cards for 2023. Why even carry a credit card balance? Strategies for managing high-balance credit cards. Why we (not us, you) don't like financial plans; a little bit of worry...

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Is the Fed Done?

2023-06-15

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(6/15/23) How long can the markets' buying stampede continue? The markets' reaction to Fed rate pause announcement: Meh. The next logical point for correction is to 4,000. Markets didn't blink on less-than-dovish comments by Jerome Powell: Two more rate hikes are possible this year, but no commitment to do so in July. And why would the Fed cut rates, unless there's a problem? (Has the market mis-read the Fed?) The Fed calculates inflation in myriad...

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