Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Markets Summer Heat in Full Swing

2023-08-01

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(8/1/23) Summer is in full-swing, and markets are matching the heat with extreme bullish sentiment. What is the cost of hedging your portfolio over time? No one believes a correction is coming (so it probably will). Companies are receiving no reward for beating (lowered) estimates; the number of companies achieving beats is declining. 3% - 5% correction in August should come as no surprise. Bullishness in S&P 500: Everyone can't wait to get in;...

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Is the Bull Market Unstoppable?

2023-07-31

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(7/31/23) Investors prepare for August with the "rarity" of market performance: entering the seasonably weaker months of summer with 90% of stocks trading above their moving average; there is a high likelihood they will come back down. Earnings Season continues with the bulk of performance reports negative: We're getting more earnings "beats," but less of a beat than usual and on lowered estimates!) What are you really paying...

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2023 Mid-Year Economic Review

2023-07-27

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Intro/Disclaimer 1.) How We Got Here: Bull Markets, Bear Markets, & Corrections 2.) This is the first look at the effects of March 2022 (charts) Economic Output Composite Index vs Leading Economic Indicators; vs S&P 500 EPS; Federal Receipts & Expenditures vs GDP; Earnings Estimates Ahead of Realities; Deviation Above 50-DMA & Technical Indicators 3.) Under-estimating effect of Economic Stimulus/Inflation Reduction Act 4.) Other...

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Still No Recession?

2023-07-27

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(7/27/23) An overview of the current earnings reporting reveals profit margins have declined to pre-pandemic levels. Markets' flat response to Jerome Powell post-FOMC meeting presser The effects of shrinkflation are beginning to fade; no 2% inflation expected until late 2025. Will rate cuts return by then? Markets don't have a friendly Fed; a huge concern for impact of the Lag Effect; still possible for yet another rate increase of .25 to .50% by...

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How Millionaires Spend Their Money

2023-07-26

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(7/28/23) How do Millionaires spend their money? No processed food: Health = wealth; no cheap stuff; buy in the middle. Look for dependability in durable goods purchases. [NOTE: This segment is excerpted from a previous show broadcast on 7/7/23].   Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch the full show from which this...

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Outliving Your 401k: Don’t Fear the Reaper (7/26/23): Market Analysis & Personal Finance commenta…

2023-07-26

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Mega Earnings Preview (7/25/23): Technical Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief I…

2023-07-25

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Earnings Parade Continues

2023-07-24

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(7/24/23) Will market volatility return with a rebalancing of the NASDAQ and Index Funds: Where will the money go? The Barbenheimer Weekend; GDP & Debr-driven liquidity: The problem of debt servicing. Earnings parade continues: Preview w Domino's Pizza as economic indicator; the importance of understanding earnings & estimates. Are you really getting everything you're paying for? Example: Apple is 1/8th US GDP: How can growth estimates be...

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How to Demolish Your Retirement

2023-07-21

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(7/21/23) Are you happy with the markets? You can't fight the tape; the slowdown of the consumer has yet to occur; transcripts of earnings calls have not been dire. How to deal with IRS Rules changes for IRA's. If the government is taking your money like this now, what will they do next? Why they're pushing Roth's: they want your money now. Inherited IRA's vs Roth's: Roth conversions as legacy strategy. (Why all the delay and confusion with RMD...

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Living with the Lag Effect

2023-07-20

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(7/20/23) Earnings season continues with Regional Banks' performance, "so far, so good," but related concerns persist. Markets have retraced over 78% of their decline from January 2022 all-time highs; are new, all-time highs about to he achieved? Are banks presently enjoying a perfect economic environment? Are companies pricing-in growth that cannot be delivered? Sector rotation impact; looking at the lag-effect; how to higher interest...

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The Conundrum of Early Retirement

2023-07-19

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(7/19/23) Investors' return to exuberance: Is the worst behind us? More to come in August and September. Markets are still hoping for a rate cut; is that realistic? Markets may be getting ahead of themselves as earnings season continues; at 3-standard deviations above the averages, upside potential is limited. Regional Banks have priced-in bad news; why the democratization of finance is not necessarily a good thing. Who really benefits? In...

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Investing Around Political Landmines

2023-07-18

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(7/18/23) Bank earnings reports continue to bolster optimism: Will bailout facilities be enough? Manufacturing Indexes turn positive after too long in negative mode; looking for an upturn in the business cycle. Higher retail sales are expected; what will be the reality? Watch for signs of pullback in discretionary spending; Market rally and rising trendlines confirm bullish bias. The Baltimore Build: Productive vs Non-productive debt; choices and...

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Has the Risk of Recession Lessened?

2023-07-17

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(7/17/23) Markets are doing what they do: Can Earnings live up to expectations, going forward? Inflation (as measured) is coming down, but prices paid have not. There is competing data: Optimism vs Pessimism. Earnings results are not as important as what companies are saying about forward outlooks. Are Regional Banks in trouble? Has the risk of Recession lessened? If markets price-in recession, it won't happen; conversely, when it's not expected......

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Why Should the Fed Lower Rates Now?

2023-07-13

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(7/13/23) Elon Musk's ChatGPT challenger, xAI, is the source of an order boom for NVDIA chips. Meanwhile, markets respond to a cooler-than-expected CPI print. Social Media Influencers & Human Bait; Digesting CPI: The difference between YOY and MOM numbers. What's the Fed's next move? Why would/should the Fed lower rates now? Why the Fed will do what it takes to save the banks; saving their rate "cushion" for a rainy day. What about...

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xAI: Let the Battle Begin (7/13/23): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Investm…

2023-07-13

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Why Financial Plans Fail

2023-07-12

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(7/12/23) Markets' anticipation of inflation would result in a moderate decline (in fact, June CPI printed at .2% for a 3% inflation rate). Meanwhile the NFIB report reflected improving moods among small businesses, and other data shows consumers are more confident about spending money = more inflation. How do companies protect profit margins? Cut costs and/or raise prices = inflation. Speculative mood is returning to markets. Charlie Munger: The...

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Watermelons & Money Lessons

2023-07-12

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Surplus Cash is Ending

2023-07-11

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(7/11/23) The next CPI report is on the way: What will the Fed say? Why Core Inflation matters; investors are dancing from one form of FOMO to the other. NFIB report preview; defining the rally: A bullish stampede followed by correction. Average credit card payments are higher than ever, thanks to interest rate hikes; the effect on car loans and credit cards. Surplus cash is ending. How much longer before consumer spending slows? Is Recession still...

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Inside the Q2 Reports: Why Sales Matter

2023-07-10

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(7/10/23) NVDIA sets the tone as Earnings Season begins. Companies this time need to achieve a double-beat on earnings as well as sales. Banks & Financials will lead the way this week: What will Loan Loss Reserves foretell? Employment report missed estimates for the first time in 14-months. Has the market sell-off begun? Examining the relationship between the markets and the economy: Why Sales matter (and the problem with depending on Operating...

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Shifting from Accumulation to Distribution in Retirement

2023-07-07

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(7/7/23) The Fed's Trillion-dollar question is whether they can thread the needle between a strong market and economic data and the need to control inflation; the market must realize the Fed's not done yet. Market resiliency remains surprising. Who will play the part of Elon Musk in biopic film? Our next Candid Coffee teaser: Mid-year Economic Review. Stock exposure in late-stage portfolios: Shifting from accumulation to distribution mode. Avoiding...

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