7-29-24 What Does the Fear and Greed Index Mean for Investors?

2024-06-20

Will markets exhibit the typical summer weakness? Prepping for the election outcomes; correction coming now and later. Preview of housing numbers and initial jobless claims; market breadth is on the decline. The increasing gap between the S&P 500 and equal-weighted indexes. Lance discusses the relative strength of the Dollar vs other currencies. Petro-dollar fears and how you’re being sold by Wall Street. Our narrative should be how to make money. The "demise" of the petro-dollar; keeping currencies all relative within a range is important for Trade. The Gold/Dollar dynamic; why the world transacts business in dollars: The need for a deep and stable currency…and safety. The importance of Rule of Law: How policy choices can errode trust in the dollar. The divergence between energy

2024-06-18

Markets are trading in a holiday-shortened week, thanks to the Juneteenth Holiday Wednesday. 50% of companies are now in stock buy back blackout period. Retail Sales report preview; a function of Consumer sentiment. Five Fed speakers out and about today; markets started weakly, then rallied 1%. Volume and breadth are weakening; markets are very over-bought and extremely deviated from DMA’s; when correction comes… Is consumer sentiment on the rise? How best to balance portfolio mix (charts). When will the "Next Big One" come along? Query about going from 90/10 portfolio to 100% equities; you can always find a reason not to invest. Bonds vs T-bills vs Equities; What to do when there are no high-yiled, low-risk options? How to manage risk in volatile rate environment; why you should look

2024-06-17

📈 James Grant predicts a cyclical rise in interest rates for the next few decades. Lance Roberts explains why he sees things differently. 🏠💰 #InterestRates #Economy #Finance

Lance Roberts discusses the impact of higher interest rates on the economy and shares insights from an interview with James Grant. Discover how cyclical patterns and rising rates can shape the future.
– Impact of higher interest rates on homeowners
– Borrowing costs and their effect on consumption
– Economic implications of rising rates
– James Grant’s perspective on cyclical interest rate patterns
– Potential multi-decade rise in interest rates

➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757

➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our

2024-06-17

On Wednesday, the May inflation print came in cooler than expected, sending stock and bond prices higher. Such is interesting, considering the still numerous “perpetually bearish” commentators suggest that inflation will surge due to increasing debts and deficits. However, the inflation trend remains lower as economic growth continues to slow. The correlation between smoothed PCE prices, economic growth, and inflation remains high. Therefore, as economic activity (demand) slows, prices fall as supply increases. The increasing debts and deficits are not inflationary. They are, in fact, deflationary, as the debt service redirects increasing amounts of income from productive uses. Unless something changes, the inflation print will fall further as economic growth slows, and the forces

2024-06-06

Small caps and mid caps may become favorable investments in the future, especially after a period of slow economic growth or recession when excess stimulus has been absorbed. #investing #economy

Are small caps the future of investment opportunities? Join host Lance Roberts as he breaks down the crucial moments to consider for small and mid-cap stocks.
– Current state of mid caps and small caps
– Earnings performance of small caps
– Economic indicators impacting small caps
– Timing for small cap investments
– Effect of economic growth or recession on small caps

➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757

➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel:
www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow

2024-04-10

It’s CPI Day (with m/m inflation clocking in with a .4% increase, and a y/y gain to 3.8%, hotter than expected). Sheila Jackson-Lee’s science experiment; the NFIB Survey does not bode well for small businesses:Sentiment falls to a new low based on poor sales. There remains a dichotomy between headline economic news and what’s happening behind the scenes. Markets break below the 20-DMA, but regain support. Why what really matters is the data the Fed looks at. Portfolio Spring Cleaning; Five or six ways to save Social Security (but first, a history of SS); the mathematical realities. Why Pensions face the same problems; how to fix it; lock it off. Any viable solution is un-electable. The IPO saga of Truth Social; IPO behaviors. Never buy an IPO out of the gate. DJT still has much to prove.

2024-04-09

Margin debt levels have surged as bullish investors leverage their bets in the equity market. The increase in leverage is not surprising, as it represents increased risk-taking by investors in the stock market. Unsurprisingly, as consumer confidence improves, so does the speculative demand for equities. As stock markets improve, the “fear of missing out” becomes more prevalent. Such boosts demand for equities, and as prices rise, investors take on more risk by adding leverage.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Margin Debt Surges As Bulls Leverage Bets"

2024-03-26

Baltimore Harbor is closed following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, hit by an out of control freighter. Weaker Regional Economic Surveys are in contrast to economists ratcheting-up growth expectations: No one is expecting a recession. Liquidity continues to boost bullish mood on Wall Street. The market has steadily climbed for past 5-months, creating record deviations; for now, no fear. Valuations are a measure of market psychology: "If everybody has bought, who is left to buy?" – Sam Stovall. When Technicals & Fundamentals align (the problem for most investors is that they’re too slow). All elements are now present for a reversion to the mean; just need a catalyst. What will turn buyers into sellers? The impact of more, earlier retirees on actuarial tables and Larry