Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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1 Million Layoffs

2025-12-08

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2025-12-08

U.S. employers have announced over 1 million layoffs this year, the highest annual total since the pandemic-era collapse in 2020. November alone saw more than 71,000 layoffs announced, keeping pressure on sectors from technology to telecoms even as the equity market pushes higher. The post below, courtesy @KobeissiLetter, details some of this year's announcements.   …

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The DPI Link To Margin Debt

2025-12-08

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2025-12-08

A recent article by Simon White, via Bloomberg, discussed the rising cost of margin debt for investors. While his analysis below compares the cost of debt to GDP, we will also consider a more critical comparison to disposable personal income (DPI). Here is Simon's point. "Yet, where history does raise a red flag is if … Continue reading...

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Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop

2025-12-06

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2025-12-06

🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you'd like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ … Continue...

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12-5-25 Why Fed Cuts Could Make the Dollar Stronger, Not Weaker

2025-12-05

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Fed rate cuts aren’t inherently bearish for the dollar $DXY. By supporting economic growth and boosting $SPY / $QQQ, they attract foreign capital that strengthens the currency. In this short video, MIchael Lebowitz and I discuss why easing supports growth, pulls in foreign capital, and ultimately contradicts the constant dollar-debasement narrative. 📺Full episode: -iyGgj0 Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show:...

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Jobs Data From Alternative Sources May Drive Fed’s Next Move

2025-12-05

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2025-12-05

With the federal government shutdown delaying critical economic reports, the official jobs data remains incomplete. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September jobs report. However, the October report, originally expected earlier this month, remains in limbo, potentially permanently. The reason is due to the shutdown, as the BLS was unable to …

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5x Leverage Is Too Much Says The SEC

2025-12-05

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2025-12-05

Wall Street’s financial engineers thought they had found yet another way to turn financial markets into casinos. The gimmick this time is with 3x, 4x, and even 5x leveraged ETFs tied to individual stocks and cryptocurrencies. The SEC just ruled against these new proposals, apparently drawing the line at 2x leverage as the rules state. …

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12-4-25 Why Markets Are Nervous About a New Fed Chair

2025-12-04

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Markets are reacting to the rising odds of Kevin Hassett becoming the next Fed Chair. His pro-growth, lower-rate stance raises concerns that inflation might not get enough attention. In this short video, Michael Lebowitz & Lance Roberts discuss why investors worry about inflation being underweighted and why one chair’s vote still doesn’t decide Fed policy. 📺Full episode: -iyGgj0 Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show:...

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12-5-25 Roth Conversions, Money Rules & Financial Wellness: What Actually Works?

2025-12-04

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Richard Rosso breaks down a study that modeled hundreds of thousands of retirement scenarios to determine which Roth conversion strategy performs best over a 10-year period: • Staying in a traditional IRA/401(k) and taking RMDs • A one-time Roth conversion • A gradual, multi-year conversion strategy RIA Advisors’ Financial Guardrails are timeless principles for building lasting wealth and protecting your financial future. Rich also shares...

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12-4-25 Fed Regime Change: Is Groupthink Finally Ending?

2025-12-04

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Is the era of Fed groupthink finally coming to an end? For over a decade, the Federal Reserve has operated under a powerful consensus framework—one where dissent has been rare and the Chair’s view has dominated policy outcomes. But shifting politics, rising dissenting votes, and increasing disagreements among FOMC members may signal a new regime change at the Fed. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down: 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - ISM Report...

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Natural Gas Prices: Weather, Data Centers And LNG

2025-12-04

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2025-12-04

As we share below, courtesy of FinViz, natural gas prices have risen by over 50% since late October. Moreover, natural gas prices, approaching $5, are at three-year highs. The primary cause of the recent price surge is increased heating demand driven by colder-than-expected winter weather, which is resulting in greater-than-average inventory draws. Per the EIA, …

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Year-End Financial Planning Checklist: 7 Steps to Maximize Your Wealth Before December 31

2025-12-04

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2025-12-04

The end of the year tends to sneak up on people. One minute it’s late summer; the next, you’re staring at a calendar and wondering how to wrap up your financial goals before the deadline hits. A thoughtful approach can make a measurable difference in what you keep, what you owe, and how prepared you …

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12-3-25 Anyone Can Spot a Market Cycle But Few Can Survive It

2025-12-03

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Identifying market cycles is easy; surviving them is the hard part. Long-term cycle narratives often break investors emotionally. In this short video, I explain why focusing on shorter, manageable timeframes leads to better decisions and fewer mistakes. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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12-3-25 Trump Accounts Explained: Who Qualifies for the Dell Deal?

2025-12-03

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What exactly are Trump Accounts, and who qualifies under the new expansion backed by Michael and Susan Dell’s $6.25 billion donation? Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff break down how the Dell Deal works, which families benefit, and why this initiative could reshape financial planning for millions of children. If you’re a parent, grandparent, or financial planner, this is essential information about how these accounts may impact a child’s financial...

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Fed Regime Change: Groupthink May Be Ending

2025-12-03

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2025-12-03

Starting in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, a profound change to the Fed’s liquidity-providing role in the capital markets was underway.  We can sum up the Fed regime change with a popular quip: The Fed has shifted from lender of last resort to the lender of only resort! In our articles QE Is … Continue...

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Black Friday Sales Results

2025-12-03

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2025-12-03

Based solely on Black Friday sales data, the holiday shopping season may be decent despite poor consumer sentiment.  According to Adobe Analytics, which draws data from over one trillion retail site visits, Black Friday online sales hit a record $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from last year. Per MasterCard's SpendingPulse, retail sales, including online and in-store …

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12-2-25 Don’t Buy The “Death of the Dollar” Story$DXY

2025-12-02

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The #USDollar isn’t dying and its global dominance isn’t under threat. In this short video, I explain why the fear-driven “death of the dollar” narrative ignores economic reality and relies on misleading charts rather than facts. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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12-2-25 LIVE Q&A: Ask Us Anything About Markets & Money

2025-12-02

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Welcome to our LIVE Q&A session! Lance Roberts is taking your questions directly from the YouTube live chat—covering markets, investing, retirement planning, inflation, interest rates, the Federal Reserve, portfolio strategy, risk management, and your personal finance questions. No scripts, no agenda—just real-time answers based on data, history, and risk-focused investing principles. We’ll break down what’s moving the markets, how to think...

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How to Reduce Taxes on Investment Gains: Advanced Strategies for High Net Worth Investors

2025-12-02

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2025-12-02

Building wealth requires more than market awareness; it requires keeping as much of your earnings as possible. High net worth investors face steeper tax exposure, wider reporting thresholds, and more complex investment structures. Learning how to reduce taxes on investment income is one of the most effective ways to strengthen long‑term performance. Below are the …

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Overheating Financial Markets Highlight Data Centers Handicap

2025-12-02

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2025-12-02

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) trading platforms were shut down for approximately 4 hours due to overheating after its cooling system at its Illinois data center failed. The outage began around 10:00 p.m. ET on November 27, halting about 90% of global derivatives volume on the Globex platform across futures and options for equities, bonds, …

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12-1-25 A Perfect Year-End Rally Setup But With One Big Warning

2025-12-01

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Markets $SPX $NDX followed classic seasonality with a November dip that set up a potential year-end rally. But after six straight monthly gains, the odds of a pullback are rising. In this short video, I explain why seasonality supports upside, but this streak makes risk management more important than ever.

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