Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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#Inflation Report Preview (5/9/23): Technical Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chie…

2023-05-09

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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What Happens If the Debt Ceiling Is Not Raised

2023-05-08

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(5/8/23) Our obligatory Mother's Day alert; no recent bank fail (yay); Employment report beat estimates for 13th straight month; market rallies 2% on Friday, but ends with a down week; markets moving sideways despite higher interest rates, bank failures, and weakening economy (or is it?); the two types of default, and why no one is going to repossess the US. Janet Yellen is wrong about the Debt Ceiling; what happens if the Debt Ceiling is not...

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Why Affordable Healthcare is an Oxymoron

2023-05-05

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(5/5/23) Will there be a mass-exodus from bank stocks in the wake of the latest round of bank failures? It's hard to tell the baby from the bath water. Getting out of the market vs the price of reinvestment risk: the perils of financial quicksand. short-term vs long-term debt: What are the rates telling us? What does the Fed really control? Apple, GI Joe, & Barbie: Why everything you buy has velcro. Why Affordable Healthcare is an oxymoron;...

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Is the Fed Done?

2023-05-04

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(5/4/23) The Fed hikes rates...again...and markets pull back; tighter bank lending standards are defacto constraints on the economy. The burning questions are, 'is the Fed done,' and 'when will the Fed cut rates?' Jerome Powell's word salad results in more market volatility; Jobs numbers and CPI will factor into to market moves next week. Instead of rate cuts, sticky inflation could actually result in more rate increases. Jerome Powell is...

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Are We Already in Recession?

2023-05-03

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(5/3/23) Markets have stagnated somewhat in anticipation of this afternoon's Fed announcement, anticipating a 25-bp interest rate hike. What matters more will be the language from Jerome Powell relating the Fed's mood and future direction. Oil prices are now falling on weakening demand: What if we're already in Recession? A key indicator is oil prices, which have fallen on weakening demand. Meanwhile, expectations of a market disaster have failed...

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How to Choose Careers AI Cannot Replace

2023-05-02

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(5/2/23) The FOMC meets today with their interest rate announcement tomorrow afternoon; most important will be the language in the Fed's statement. With sticky, stubborn inflation still rampant, no rate cut is in sight, but the Fed could decide to pause after a final 25bp rate hike tomorrow. Joe Biden's Good Credit Mortgage Penalty program begins; the unintended consequences; why housing is really unaffordable; the ObamaCare case study; increased...

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JP Morgan Gets Bigger (5/1/23): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Investment S…

2023-05-01

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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10 Mistakes in Your 401k You Should Avoid

2023-04-29

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(4/28/23) With the apparent, increasing socialization of banks and markets, what's the best play for investors? Preview of our upcoming Lunch & Learn, "Transitioning to Medicare:" Medigap vs Medicare Advantage; implications of early retirement on your Medicare plan. Powerball Lottery winner lifestyle: What would you do first? Poking Lance; 10 Mistakes you should avoid in your 401k; why a Roth 401k is better for younger savers; the...

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Using Good Credit to Subsidize Poor Credit

2023-04-26

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(4/27/23) The new Biden FHA Mortgage Rule will penalize borrowers with "good" credit with a 1% fee to subsidize borrowers with less-than-optimal credit, helping place them into homes they likely cannot really afford (did we not learn this lesson before??) How is this not a violation of the Fair Housing Act of 1968, and discrimination against borrowers w good credit scores? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts,...

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Will Artificial Intelligence Be the Next Industrial Revolution?

2023-04-26

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(4/26/23) The Big Debate is whether the economy is stronger than expected, owing to pockets of consumption, or if warnings from transportation sector of a slowing economy are to be heeded. The evolution of Technology and Ai: What do Tech earnings say about the economy; At work communication mis-fires: The future of working from home. Implications of Ai technology on worker productivity: What jobs cannot be replaced by Ai? Will Ai be the equivalent,...

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Investing is like Chess: Thinking One Step Ahead

2023-04-25

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(4/25/23) Joe Biden announces run for re-election, and markets continue regardless, awaiting the end of earnings season and the next Fed meeting. More importantly, what will companies say about the months ahead? Markets are stuck in mid-air; sell in April instead of May, and go away? Despite negative news and the Fed's hiking rates, markets continue to exhibit signs of stability; until employment rises, economy will remain flat. As markets defy bad...

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Upending the Fair Housing Act of 1968

2023-04-24

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(4/24/23) Earnings Season begins to wrap, as stimulus spending unwinds; when will the economic cycle trough? Earnings estimates for 2024 are starting to ratchet-up again; prepare for the weaker months of Summer; the "crash magnet" is October. The new Biden FHA Mortgage Rule will penalize borrowers with "good" credit with a 1% fee to subsidize borrowers with less-than-optimal credit, helping place them into homes they likely...

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To Roth or Not to Roth?

2023-04-22

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(4/21/23) Markets are rationalizing; this will be a White Collar Recession; economic metrics are 'whacked-out;" no "Fed Pivot" by summer: Inflation is here to stay. Twinkies are shrinking. Elon Musk & Space-X launch: Why the extreme criticism? To Roth or Not to Roth: they may not be for everyone. Lunch & Learn preview; Buc-ee Beaver archaeology. Should you avoid a Roth? labor market trends: Job losses coming in a "White...

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Word of the Day: “Rehypothecate”

2023-04-20

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(4/20/23) Regional Banks seem to be fine as their earnings reports continue to roll-out this week, indicating the turmoil created around SVB and Credit Suisse were a one-off event, and not necessarily a systemic crisis. The interesting correlation between risk-on/risk-off rotation and market performance; we're looking for companies with poor earnings but good stock performance. Is the Worst behind us? Markets remain entrenched in a bullish trend....

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Could the Markets Run Out of Gas?

2023-04-19

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(4/19/23) Despite the past "rolling disasters" repeatedly hitting markets, the bullish mood persists. Could markets run out of gas? A normal, 10% correction is not out of the question. How the Government is wasting your tax dollars; the most important strategies for Retirees now; how higher interest rates are impacting retirement, both good and bad. What does retirement even look like, anymore? Locking in returns w Treasuries at higher...

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There’s No Such Thing as ‘Money on the Sidelines’

2023-04-18

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(4/18/23) Banks boost stocks as earnings season continues; markets remain in a trading range. Expect a pullback. Volatility Index (VIX) significantly down, closing Monday at 17. Rolling Recession vs The Big Event. Mounds of Cash: Who really owns it? Where does it come from (and where does it go)? The explosion of Money Market Funds in 2020: There is no such thing as "money on the sidelines." In the markets, for every buyer there is a...

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What’s New with Social Security This Year?

2023-04-17

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Here is an encore presentation of the April 13, 2023 Lunch & Learn on What's New w Social Security?, with RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, with Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP. ------- 0:00 - Intro/Preview 2:16 - Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) 5:02 - Earnings Testing 8:56 -Taxable Earnings Cap 12:07 - Taxation of SS Benefits 17:47 - New Required Minimum Distributions (RMD) 20:56 - How to Head-off Taxes on...

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Why Hasn’t the Fed Panicked Yet?

2023-04-17

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(4/17/23) Earnings Season is underway, and the reports we receive from regional banks could reveal a more accurate picture of the economy from a localized perspective. CEO Confidence was not good at the end of 2022; what will Q-1 statements reflect? Markets continue trend of bottoming higher: Why? Liz Ann Sonders/Charles Schwab posits we are seeing a "rolling recession" instead of a sudden, bottom fall out recession. Why hasn't the Fed...

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Is Social Security About to Go Bankrupt?

2023-04-14

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(4/14/23) Big Banks quarterly reporting headlines today's financial news; what's the best use for a brick & mortar bank in your personal finances? The challenges to small businesses, CPI stickiness means no Fed pivot. Refinancing Treasueries will expose more cracks in the economy with higher cost of debt. Why this will be a "White-collar Recession." the OAISD Report on Social Security solvency; France' pension protests, and the...

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The De-Dollarization of Reserve Currency

2023-04-13

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(4/13/23) March Inflation seemed to soften, but a look at core inflation metrics shows higher prices are still pretty sticky, providing no evidence the Fed will be inclined to pause rate hikes, much less cut rates. FOMC minutes reveal discussion of a "mild" recession. That's like being "mildly" dead. The significance of the NASDAQ being where it was 2-years ago: No gains. The March CPI Report: Nothing Burger or ham on rye?...

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