Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Will 2024 See a Soft-landing, Recession…or Worse?

2023-12-06

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(12/6/23) Will there be a soft-landing, recession, or worse in 2024...or not until 2025? There is still lots of liquidity sloshing around the system. Focus on risk management & timing management; markets cannot seem to break out of present trading range; stock buyback window closes on Friday. End of year maneuvers should include RMD's, charitable giving, HSA's, and tax-loss harvesting; don't ignore the wash rule! Why jobs matter: Yield curves...

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What Analysts are Always Bullish

2023-12-05

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(12/26/23) Why analysts are always bullish (85% of the time, markets ARE). The Big Business of Wall Street: Who's really important to Wall Street. How IPO's really work. Analysts' actual performance revealed vs what they're predicting for 2024. SEG-1: Why Analysts Are Always Bullish, Pt-1. SEG-2: Why Analysts Are Always Bullish, Pt-2. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive...

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Is 2024 Optimism Misplaced? (12/5/23)

2023-12-05

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(12/5/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is a Sell-off Nigh for the Magnificent Seven?" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will You Be Visited by Ghosts of Financial Mistakes-past?"...

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Is the ‘Everything’ Rally Over?

2023-12-04

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(12/4/23) Welcome to the first full week of December trading; a review of Mrs. Roberts' Birthday Weekend; market-wise, the stock buy back window is closing; expectations for a hawkish Fed statement next week; mutual fund distributions are coming; be cautious about being overly bullish. Rotations from the Magnificent Seven are beginning; the 'Everything' Rally went too far, too fast. We're back where we were in July; losses were mitigated by the...

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Will You Be Visited by Ghosts of Financial Mistakes-past?

2023-12-01

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(12/1/23) The next James Bond movie should be called, "Convexity," starring Michael Lebowitz; looking at the Climate Summit: What's on Bill Gates' agenda? ESG is a farce; it's all about big business; eating bugs and drinking beetle juice. How to execute Thematic Investing; what are the rules needed to manage? The Magazine of Wall Street: How times have changed. Financial Ghosts-past: learning from your mistakes. Calculating your personal...

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Doing the Bond Math Amid Fiscal Dysfunction

2023-11-30

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(11/30/23) Face-off Movie, Bond Math, and Market Preview: How does the Consumer continue to spend? Texas' Christmas spending habits = $817/avg. Budgeting for Christmas w price pressure in mind. Will interest rates be but next year (why wouild the Fed do that)? Michael Lebowitz helps crunch the Bond Math: What price changes mean in the Bond Market. What is the credit risk to consider? How will you be paid? Recession is inevitable; how long do you...

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WWCMD: What Would #CharlieMunger Do? (11/29/23)

2023-11-29

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(11/29/23) Berkshire Hathaway #2 man, Charlie Munger, has passed at age 99. We explore memorable quips and quotes from this amazing investor. Hosted by RIA's Senior Financial Advisors, Danny Ratliff, CFP, & Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Need a Breather" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1...

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If You Think You Made Too Much Money This Year… (11/28/23)

2023-11-28

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(11/28/23) After a protracted Thanksgiving break, Danny and Jonathan preview markets and economic releases this week, along with Fed minutes & holiday spending trends: Thanksgiving wasn't cheap, and Christmas is going on credit cards. The rate of inflation may be lower, but prices are still going up. Holiday chaos, hippie cookies (sorry, Michelle), and what to do with extra cash? Will rates be lower next year? Defining the Yield Curve (and wy...

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2023 Thanksgiving Vacation

2023-11-21

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Seasons Greetings are upon us, and we're going to take a few days to enjoy family and friends for the Thanksgiving Holiday. We've created a suite of memorable segments from past shows to provide your Lance-fix for the next few days, so be sure you're subscribed to this channel; our Best-of Lance segments will premier here each morning at 6am CST. We'll reconvene with live shows starting Monday, November 27. Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at The...

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Why the S&P is Up 17% and You’re Not

2023-11-21

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(11/21/23) Earnings Season continues with NVIDIA set to report this evening after the bell: expectations are high, and if there's a miss, markets may punish. Markets have become very elevated only a month after everyone was so pessimisti. The Bond Market continues to surprise with a stellar acution of 20-year bonds. Will there be a Recession, a soft-landing, or no Reccession in 2024? Who knows?? Markets are over bought and need to take a breather...

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Season Season on Wall Street

2023-11-20

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(11/20/23) A look at the highest-grossing horror films of all time, and holiday week markets: July's market exuberance was followed by a predicted decline into October, which was entirely normal for any given year. Now markets are over bought, and another pullback is imminent, likely between now and next week. Meanwihle, with many traders on holiday, silly season has descended upon Wall street. Portfolio managers will be rebalancing for end-of-year...

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What Does the Fed Know It’s Not Telling Us?

2023-11-17

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What does the Fed know that they're not telling the rest of us? Comparing 2016-19 to now: The Fed managed rate changes and the lag effect, saving the hedge funds. What happens in an economy dependent upon credit? Higher rates creating stress in the system. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The Full show from which this segment is excerpted is here:...

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Dave Ramsey is Wrong About Retirement Withdrawal Rates

2023-11-17

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(11/24/23)Withdrawal Rates & Recency Bias: Why Dave Ramsey is wrong about withdrawal rates. MorningStar: Dealing with higher fixed-income rates: not here to stay. Why the 4% Withdrawal Rate is back...for now. Sequence of Returns & Guaranteed Income when the withdrawal rate is not constant. NOTE: This presentation includes video originally lost due to technical issues on the day the show was originally streamed. 0:00 - Teaser 1:03 -...

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Definining “Safe” Retirement Spending: Is the 4% Rule Back? (11/17/23)

2023-11-17

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(11/17/23) Richard Rosso's adventures in Houston traffic, market seasonality and stock-bond correlation: Why would the Fed cut interest rates now? WalMart's results: What are companies going to do during deflation? Richard calls the Butterball Turkey Hotline; spending survey results for 2023 & Consumer Sentiment indexes: Why are American's still spending? The WalMart Parking Lot Indicator. Withdrawal Rates & Recency Bias: Why Dave Ramsey is...

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The Fed’s Conundrum

2023-11-17

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(11/23/22) Recession will occur when employment turns sour. Fed guidance to markets: Not saying anything for a while, positioning to be "right," regardless of outcome. Why would the Fed cut rates? That's the Fed's conundrum. What does the Fed know that they're not telling the rest of us? Comparing 2016-19 to now: The Fed managed rate changes and the lag effect, saving the hedge funds. What happens in an economy dependent upon credit?...

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The Year of The Magnificent Seven

2023-11-16

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(11/16/23) This will be The Year of the Magnificent Seven--those dominant stocks that have powered the markets, responsible for 112% of this year's gains. Markets are working through earnings season; Target & WalMart: A tale of Two Retailers. Markets are returning to overbought conditions, ripe for a pullback. Best opportunities to add exposure will likely be post-Thanksgiving. The problem with easing financial conditions for the Fed: heighten...

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The Fed IS Done (11/15/23)

2023-11-15

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(11/15/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Oil Prices Under Pressure" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Recession Fears Return as Bond Rates Drop"...

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Is the Economy Slowing More than We Know?

2023-11-14

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(11/14/23) This is the last, full week of trading before the holidays hit; What will drive today's CPI number: Home owners' equivalent rent. Can the S&P exceed Friday's high? Markets are turning resistance into support, still no the backs of large cap companies; market is bifurcated vs mid- and small-cap companies. Oil Prices are under pressure; Gold is trading in a flat range. Markets are shrugging off bad news; spending bill needs to be done...

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Recession Fears Return as Bond Rates Drop

2023-11-13

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(11/13/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investing Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Testing 100-DMA" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What's Up with Bonds?" &list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s --------...

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Talkin’ Turkey About Your Money

2023-11-10

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Richard and Danny take it back to the Old School way, answering live Q&A. (disclaimer) 1:04 - It's been a tough August, September, October: historical implications of a negative quarter. You really cannot get all-in or all-out of markets. Positioning portfolios for where money will be going. 4:19 - How we do that voodoo that we do: Sell rules & stop losses. 7:25 - The frustration of current market environment. 11:30 - Allocation and Risk...

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