Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Is Inflation Cooling? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-10-11

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(10/11/22) Oil prices were over sold and due for a rally, which came to fruition, and we took off some energy exposure on Monday. OPEC cuts and tapping the SPR is creating a forecast for higher oil prices, yet. If oil prices stabilize at $85-87/bbl and work off their overboughtedness, we could then see another rally up to $100/bbl by the end of the year. However, oil prices have declined over all from their peak earlier this year. We're looking for...

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This is not the 1970’s Inflation

2022-10-11

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(10/11/22) Is Jamie Dimon correct in predicting a recession by 2023? 263k jobs number is great, but part of a declining trend. The Paradox of Savings makes for a weaker economy; earnings season is coming with estimates still too high. CEO confidence is at record lows, anticipating layoffs, starting with work-at-home employees. Employment growth is trending negatively. The Fed WILL make a policy mistake, and there is clear evidence Recession will...

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Why Pandemic Home Buyers Now Regret Their Purchase

2022-10-08

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(10/7/22) Big Jobs numbers come out today amid a growing climate of negativity on the part of CEO's, anticipating layoffs in coming months; workers are essentially receiving pay cuts, thanks to effects of wages failing to keep up with inflation. Why older workers make better employees. Pandemic Homebuyers are having buyer's remorse; another example of lizard-brain investors not thinking-through a transaction; more and more American's are being...

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How Do Mid-term Elections Affect Stocks?

2022-10-07

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(10/10/22) The mid-term elections are about a month away, and with stocks down sharply for most of the year, one can't help but wonder what November's polling will mean to markets. Where inflation came from. How did the Kardashian's do it? [NOTE: Lance & The Crew are taking the day off, and will return return to live programming Tuesday (10-11-22). Here is an encore segment from a recent episode of The Real Investment Show.} Hosted by RIA...

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Don’t Be Spooked by Markets | Candid Coffee (10/2/22)

2022-10-06

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Richard and Danny share the tricks and treats of the trade, proving that money doesn't have to scary: Do the opposite of what most financial pundits say. Perspective on Volatile Markets How to Cut Costs & Budget Secular Market Trends The Investment House is Haunted Let's Talk Bonds Short-term rates are affected by Fed action Intermediate and long-term rates are driven by economic growth and inflation During equity contractions along with...

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What Do OPEC’s Production Cuts Mean for Oil Prices? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-10-06

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(10/6/22) OPEC's announcement of a 2-mil barrel per day cut in oil production was twice the amount expected. The Biden Administration immediately accused the cartel of being in cahoots with Russia; what this does mean is less oil production as demand increases heading into winter, suggesting higher oil prices to come. Meanwhile, the US now plans to tap another 10-mil barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, already down from its...

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What Happens When the Financial Models Break?

2022-10-06

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(10/6/22) Gasoline prices are back on the rise with OPEC's production cuts; Joe Biden's solution: Tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as winter looms, and demand for fuel oil will increase, resulting in greater expenses for an already strapped consumer. Markets are oversold with a drop in negative sentiment; yet no Fed pivot in sight. Will the Fed continue until something breaks? There are now $60-T in derivatives hanging out, all based on...

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Markets Rally +6% – Is There More to Come? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-10-05

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(10/5/22) A very strong rally on the S&P has added 6.3% over the past couple of days, which places the MAC-D very close to triggering a buy signal. However, this doesn't necessarily preclude a bit of a pullback, which would create an opportunity to add a little more exposure to stocks. One item to note: Market Volatility has been subdued during this entire bear market, but in September showed a strong pickup in activity. The last couple of...

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The House Price Plunge: Opportunity for Cash?

2022-10-05

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(10/5/22) With home prices falling at the fastest pace since The Great Depression (and the resulting ramifications for the real estate market and the economy), one wonders whether the Fed is really paying attention. The VIX is moving up as selling pressure increases; watch for "performance chasing" by fund managers and portfolio managers. There is no indication the Fed is near pivoting on its inflation-fighting gambit. Markets are...

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Be Careful: We’re Not Out of The Woods Yet | 3:00 on Markets & Money (10/4/22)

2022-10-04

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(10/4/22) The extreme over-sold and negative conditions that exist in the market are very similar to what se saw back in June, which resulted in a subsequent 17% rally. Jim Cramer called The Bottom...again and again. All of these elements are creating a squeeze on short plays, and elevation in prices. All we need now is for Cramer to call the bottom. Again. Our take: Be careful. We're set up for a decent rally with a target of 3,800 or 3,900. But...

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Will the Next Crisis be Credit-related?

2022-10-04

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(10/4/22) Will companies be able to pass along increased costs to consumers? As the prelude to earnings season begins to rev-up, CEO confidence is down; what will their outlooks reveal? Has the bounce begun? The short squeeze we predicted has arrived; expect rally to 3,800 to 3,900; Q3 GDP could provide some life to markets. While 70% of companies surveyed by KPMG say ESG has improved their earnings, 59% are pausing or reversing their ESG stance....

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Keep an Eye on the 200-DMA| 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-10-03

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(10/3/22) Stocks wrapped up September by selling off to new lows for the year, begging the question: Are markets ready for a rally? Markets are extremely deviated from long term means, which historically tend to be opportunities for reflexive rallies, which equal opportunities to reduce risk. Markets are over-sold from their 200-DMA; we think markets will rally back to the 3,800 or 3,900-level on the S&P, re-testing the down trend on the...

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Nowhere to Go But US Dollar & Treasuries

2022-10-03

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(10/3/22) Don't let a bear market force you into making bad investing decisions. When will the real risk of recession occur? Any rally back to 4,000 is a good opportunity to "fix" your portfolio. When will the Fed begin to taper rate hikes? Today's special, un-scheduled Fed Governors meeting; dealing with recession fatigue; the real risk will be in 2023; the lagging effect of Fed rate hikes; Why are American's already tired of recession?...

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How to Write a Successful Money Script

2022-10-01

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(9/30/22) Thursday was a rotten-apple day in a tumultuous week for the markets; recapping Hurricane Ian damage. Financial storms for the Dollar & Bond Markets: All gains from the last 10-years have been eliminated. The 60/40 allocation is the most painful ever. Why the Treasury market gets no respect; if you have cash on hand, begin putting together a list of target stocks to buy when the timing is right. Moving from Cali to Texas; when...

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The Bond Investors’ Primer

2022-09-30

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(9/30/22) The Bond Market is in the biggest bear mode in history; Lance and Michael discuss the role of Bonds as investors struggle with loss of ability to manage risk. What is a Bond? What is a Coupon? The difference between equities & bonds is in the return of principal. Why Buy Bonds; how is the rate calculated? What is the real yield? The lower risk in bonds: no loss of principal. The Fed is manufacturing recession. 0:17 - Solutions for...

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BOE Bailout Fuels Rally | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-29

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(9/29/22) Markets have been working to hold onto support established back in June; yesterday's news of the Bank of England resuming bond purchases to bail out pension funds provided the octane needed for a rally upward, and fueled expectations the Fed would capitulate sooner than later in its rate hike campaign. Markets could open weaker this morning, following yesterday's sharp rally. Can markets confirm higher ground established on Wednesday?...

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The “Broken Window Theory” is Flawed

2022-09-29

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(9/29/22) Hurricane Ian pounded Florida overnight; recovery and repairs will contribute economic activity to the area, but the "Broken Window" theory has some flaws and mirrors the relationship between stimulus and inflation. The Bank of England caved to pressure, repeating what caused inflation in the first place; the realization that high valuations cannot be maintained; bond market in biggest bear mode in history; Bond's role in with...

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The Bank of England Blinks: Is The Fed Next? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-28

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(9/28/22) We have long held that market instability would be a key driver in a Fed policy shift from its current course of fighting inflation with higher rates. The Bank of England today is moving from quantitative tightening and starting to buy bonds because of "Market instability." A credit crisis causes much more long-term damage to an economy than does inflation, and any such crisis will dramatically reduce inflation, fast. And the...

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Five Places to Put Cash

2022-09-28

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(9/28/22) The Bank of England caves to the risk of inciting market instability and resumes its quantitative easing program of bond purchases. Oil Prices may be poised to move higher; Millennials are making more trades than any other demographic; the problem of anchoring; there are benefits to holding cash; the genesis of mutual funds; 29% of Americans are withdrawing from savings for everyday expenses; survey of what women want: more financial...

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Will the Dollar Boost the Markets? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-27

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(9/27/22) Markets are set to rally this morning, as a big short-squeeze may be underway; the dollar is showing signs of weakness.

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