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Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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The Fed Cuts Rates: What Comes Next?

2025-09-18

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2025-09-18

Not surprisingly, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points at yesterday's meeting. With the cut, the Fed Funds rate sits at 4.00-4.25%. While the market was nearly certain of a 25bps cut, it is less clear about what the road ahead holds for Fed policy. To help us start thinking about how policy may change at the upcoming meetings, we share a few comments from yesterday's FOMC meeting.

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9/17/25 Big Day: Fed Day

2025-09-17

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It’s Fed Day – the most anticipated event for markets this month. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision and Jerome Powell’s press conference could shape the direction for stocks, bonds, and the economy heading into year-end. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down: • What the Fed is likely to announce today • The impact on interest rates, inflation, and growth • How markets ($SPY, $QQQ, bonds, gold) typically react to Fed decisions • Why...

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Semiannual Reporting Requirements Are Overhyped

2025-09-17

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2025-09-17

President Trump is pushing to reduce the SEC’s financial reporting requirements from quarterly to semiannual reporting. He's framing the idea in a positive light: it would allow managers to focus on the business, lower compliance costs, and fight “short-termism” in markets. In reality, it would weaken one of the hallmarks of U.S. capital markets: timely …

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Trump’s BLS Reform Faces Steep Obstacles

2025-09-16

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2025-09-16

The White House has turned its attention to the Bureau of Labor Statistics after a series of steep payroll revisions rattled confidence in the government’s jobs data. President Trump fired the agency’s commissioner last month and has nominated a longtime critic to take her place, pledging reforms to improve accuracy. But the problems run deeper …

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9/15/25 MONDAY Stream Test

2025-09-15

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Check Czech Chex

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Invest Or Index – Exploring 5-Different Strategies

2025-09-15

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2025-09-15

Investing is about choices. Every investor faces the same challenge: how to grow wealth while controlling risk. Over the years, distinct approaches have proven effective, though none guarantee success. Some strategies require patience. Others demand discipline in timing and execution. A few provide stability and income. There is no right or wrong way to invest, …

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Overnight Funding Costs Signal Liquidity Strain

2025-09-15

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2025-09-15

After years of abundant liquidity, U.S. overnight funding markets are beginning to show signs of strain. Interest rates on overnight repo agreements have climbed steadily this month as the Treasury rebuilds its cash balance and the Fed continues quantitative tightening. Usage of the Fed’s overnight reverse repo (RRP) facility, a key gauge of excess liquidity, …

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Covered Call Strategies Gone Wild

2025-09-13

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2025-09-13

🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you'd like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ … Continue...

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9-9-25 Gold, Jobs & the Fed: Axel Merk’s Market Outlook

2025-09-12

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From the Fed’s next move to the outlook for gold and gold miners, Axel Merk, CEO of Merk Investments, shares with Lance Roberts his take on today’s biggest market risks: The largest jobs revision ever, the Fed’s lagging response, why active management beats passive distortions, and how investors should think about risk, contrarian views, and the role of gold in their portfolios. 0:18 - Introduction of Alex Merk, CEO Merk Investments 2:01 -...

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9/12/25 Pullback Cancelled? We’re Setting Up For Year-End Rally

2025-09-12

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A correction in September would've set up a healthier base, but if it doesn’t happen soon, the odds of one fade as corporate buybacks return, funds stay underweight, and the seasonal push kicks in – setting $SPY / $QQQ up for a year-end rally. In this Short video, I break it all down for you. 📺 Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow #StockMarket #YearEndRally #SPY #QQQ #MarketOutlook

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9-12-25 The Essential Hierarchy of Money Goals

2025-09-12

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Where should your money go first? Too often, people skip ahead to investing or wealth strategies before laying the right foundation. Richard Rosso and Matt Doyle break down the essential hierarchy of money goals—a clear order of priorities to help you stay on track. From emergency savings and debt reduction to investing, wealth protection, and legacy planning, this framework shows you exactly how to progress step by step. By focusing on the right...

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Corporate Earnings Slowdown Signaled By Employment Data

2025-09-12

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2025-09-12

The latest employment data strongly warned of a potential corporate earnings slowdown ahead. This is the first time we have warned about the employment data and its impact on corporate earnings. In May, we penned "Employment Data Confirms Economy Is Slowing." wherein we stated: "Given the importance of consumption in the economy and that employment (production) must come …

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Oilfield Servicers Find New Hope in AI Power Demand

2025-09-12

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2025-09-12

Oilfield service companies are fighting an uphill battle after years of weak demand from traditional energy producers. A relentless multi-year decline in U.S. rig counts has resulted in beaten-down oilfield service companies turning to an unlikely new customer base: technology firms racing to power AI data centers. According to the WSJ, companies such as Solaris …

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9/11/25 When Most Sectors Bullish – Major Correction Risk Low

2025-09-11

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The Risk Range Report (link below) shows that most sectors have turned bullish. With only a few bearish signals left, the chance of a 20–30% correction is low. In this short video, I show how this tool can help you spot danger before markets turn. 📉 The Risk Range Report: https://simplevisor.com/risk-range-report 📺 Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow #StockMarket #MarketCorrection...

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9/11/25 There Ain’t No Inflation

2025-09-11

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Markets and the Fed keep talking about inflation, but what’s really happening? Lance Roberts previews the upcoming CPI, PPI reports, and real-world data to explain why the official numbers don’t always match what you're feeling. From wages and rents to energy prices--is inflation is truly under control, or just hiding in plain sight. Discover how “disinflation” differs from “deflation,” why Wall Street’s narrative matters for stocks, and what it...

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Oracle Puts the AI Infrastructure Trade Back in Action

2025-09-11

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2025-09-11

The AI infrastructure trade stagnated through August, with enthusiasm fading even after NVDA beat earnings and raised guidance. Investors shifted their focus to weakening economic data and looming Fed rate cuts, fueling the narrative that the AI boom had run its course. That changed yesterday, when Oracle reignited the trade with a blockbuster earnings call. …

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9/10/25 This Market Boom Isn’t Backed By The Data

2025-09-10

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The market’s rally is not supported by underlying economic data. Weak jobs, disinflation, and slowing demand raise real recession risks. A recession doesn’t necessarily mean a financial crisis or a 50% market crash, but you have to be ready for one. In this short video, I break down what a recession could actually look like. 📺 Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow #StockMarket #Recession...

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9-9-25 Let’s Talk About A Correction

2025-09-10

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$SPY / $QQQ remain resilient and supported by strong money flows, underweight positioning, and short covering. While an ~8% correction is possible due to stretched valuations and the gap from long-term averages, a major downturn looks unlikely this year. In this short video, Lance Roberts explains what this means for investors. 📺 Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow #MarketCorrection #SPY...

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9/10/25 Are We On the Edge of Recession?

2025-09-10

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Are we standing at the edge of a recession? Economic data is showing cracks: slowing job growth, weakening consumer spending, and tightening credit conditions. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s policies continue to weigh on growth. In this episode, Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down the key signals flashing caution, what they could mean for corporate earnings and market performance, and how investors should think about risk management in...

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Main Street Optimism Ticks Higher Despite Hiring Challenges

2025-09-10

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2025-09-10

Main Street optimism edged higher in August, as the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.8. That reading sits above the long-term average of 98 but missed the consensus estimate of 101. Stronger sales expectations led the improvement, with a net 12% of owners anticipating higher real sales volumes. This represents a six-point jump …

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