Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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The Conundrum of Early Retirement

2023-07-19

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(7/19/23) Investors' return to exuberance: Is the worst behind us? More to come in August and September. Markets are still hoping for a rate cut; is that realistic? Markets may be getting ahead of themselves as earnings season continues; at 3-standard deviations above the averages, upside potential is limited. Regional Banks have priced-in bad news; why the democratization of finance is not necessarily a good thing. Who really benefits? In...

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Investing Around Political Landmines

2023-07-18

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(7/18/23) Bank earnings reports continue to bolster optimism: Will bailout facilities be enough? Manufacturing Indexes turn positive after too long in negative mode; looking for an upturn in the business cycle. Higher retail sales are expected; what will be the reality? Watch for signs of pullback in discretionary spending; Market rally and rising trendlines confirm bullish bias. The Baltimore Build: Productive vs Non-productive debt; choices and...

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Has the Risk of Recession Lessened?

2023-07-17

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(7/17/23) Markets are doing what they do: Can Earnings live up to expectations, going forward? Inflation (as measured) is coming down, but prices paid have not. There is competing data: Optimism vs Pessimism. Earnings results are not as important as what companies are saying about forward outlooks. Are Regional Banks in trouble? Has the risk of Recession lessened? If markets price-in recession, it won't happen; conversely, when it's not expected......

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Why Should the Fed Lower Rates Now?

2023-07-13

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(7/13/23) Elon Musk's ChatGPT challenger, xAI, is the source of an order boom for NVDIA chips. Meanwhile, markets respond to a cooler-than-expected CPI print. Social Media Influencers & Human Bait; Digesting CPI: The difference between YOY and MOM numbers. What's the Fed's next move? Why would/should the Fed lower rates now? Why the Fed will do what it takes to save the banks; saving their rate "cushion" for a rainy day. What about...

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xAI: Let the Battle Begin (7/13/23): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Investm…

2023-07-13

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Why Financial Plans Fail

2023-07-12

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(7/12/23) Markets' anticipation of inflation would result in a moderate decline (in fact, June CPI printed at .2% for a 3% inflation rate). Meanwhile the NFIB report reflected improving moods among small businesses, and other data shows consumers are more confident about spending money = more inflation. How do companies protect profit margins? Cut costs and/or raise prices = inflation. Speculative mood is returning to markets. Charlie Munger: The...

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Watermelons & Money Lessons

2023-07-12

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Surplus Cash is Ending

2023-07-11

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(7/11/23) The next CPI report is on the way: What will the Fed say? Why Core Inflation matters; investors are dancing from one form of FOMO to the other. NFIB report preview; defining the rally: A bullish stampede followed by correction. Average credit card payments are higher than ever, thanks to interest rate hikes; the effect on car loans and credit cards. Surplus cash is ending. How much longer before consumer spending slows? Is Recession still...

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Inside the Q2 Reports: Why Sales Matter

2023-07-10

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(7/10/23) NVDIA sets the tone as Earnings Season begins. Companies this time need to achieve a double-beat on earnings as well as sales. Banks & Financials will lead the way this week: What will Loan Loss Reserves foretell? Employment report missed estimates for the first time in 14-months. Has the market sell-off begun? Examining the relationship between the markets and the economy: Why Sales matter (and the problem with depending on Operating...

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Shifting from Accumulation to Distribution in Retirement

2023-07-07

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(7/7/23) The Fed's Trillion-dollar question is whether they can thread the needle between a strong market and economic data and the need to control inflation; the market must realize the Fed's not done yet. Market resiliency remains surprising. Who will play the part of Elon Musk in biopic film? Our next Candid Coffee teaser: Mid-year Economic Review. Stock exposure in late-stage portfolios: Shifting from accumulation to distribution mode. Avoiding...

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Employment Report Preview

2023-07-06

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(7/6/23) What to watch for this earnings season: What is the quality of earnings--are companies selling more stuff? Is corporate outlooks still strong? Employment Report tomorrow (7/7) is markets' focus. Pressure is on for Long-term Bonds. Janet Yellen goes to China; Is the whole Employment calculation being done incorrectly? If employment is strong, improvement in services resulting in expansion = inflationary: This is not an environment for...

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Welcome to the Second-half of 2023

2023-07-05

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(7/5/23) Welcome to the second-half of 2023: Q2 earnings season is revving up, as markets' performance divergence from economic indicators creates the question: Who's right, and where to now? What about the Wealth Gap, the Wealth Effect, and Consumer Confidence? Earnings season commences with massive cuts in earnings estimates (so that the beat rate will be high!) What about the Quality of earnings and revenue? Reported earnings since the pandemic...

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Lessons from the Luling Watermelon Thump

2023-06-30

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(6/30/23) Markets appear to be breaking out of the malaise; when does the market train run out of steam? Lessons from the Luling Watermelon Thump (IYKYK): a.) Don't eat all of the chicken all at once; b.) Don't owe nothing to nobody; c.) The heat won't kill you until it does; d.) Hay is gold; e.) Small amount of quality over a stack o' nothing (buy in the middle); f.) The past has a place, but don't forget the present; g.) You can fool yourself,...

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Is Helping Adult Children Financially a Good Idea?

2023-06-29

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(7/4/23) When helping adult children financially hurts, them AND you. The benefit of making kids learn early to pay taxes. Learning to use debt strategically. Paying back the student loans working at Sam's Club. SEG-1: Consumer Confidence & Expectations on the Rise; The Fed: "Drat!" SEG-2: Why Lower Interest Rates are NOT Coming Bank SEG-3: When Helping Your Adult Children Hurts--Them and You. SEG-4: Paying Back Debt; No...

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Is a Recession Yet to Come?

2023-06-29

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(6/29/23) Yankee pitch a perfect game, as Bank Stress tests all reveal perfect scores(!); no bailout required. Yet. Markets are still betting on lower rates, but liquidity remains. Money market accounts are in high-demand. Yield curves suggest Recession is still to come. The economy is based on debt: New Debt and Old Debt. Jerome Powell says more rate hikes to come. The Yankee's perfect games (4): all pitchers' names begin with "D." Who's...

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Larry Fink’s ESG Change of Heart

2023-06-28

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(7/3/23) Larry Fink has a change of heart about ESG? The scam that is ESG. For real change, boycott the companies (Blackrock) that invest in "woke" businesses; literally move your money away from Blackrock. Lance lays out the evidence. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The full show from which this segment is excerpted can be found here:...

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Why Lower Interest Rates Are NOT Coming Back

2023-06-28

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(6/28/23) Consumer confidence is on the rise, along with company expectations; the Fed says, "Drat!" Rising markets ease economic conditions, which will bring inflation back into the economy. Trade sanctions against China could deflate markets; AI has been the "new theme" this year. Danny's Canadian travelogue. Why low interest rates are NOT good for the economy; rates are always a function of economic growth. Howard Marks on...

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Could “Revised” Economic Data Drive Rates Higher?

2023-06-27

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(6/27/23) The Quarter's end nears and markets face increased selling pressure as portfolio managers rebalance holdings. There is still room for a 5- to 10% correction this summer. MACD Sell signal is now in place, with $26-B worth of potential selling on the line. There is now a bigger risk from inflation data revisions; is there too much market exuberance? Whoa--Larry Fink has a change of heart about ESG? The scam that is ESG. For real change,...

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Is FOMO Back as Markets Correct?

2023-06-26

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(6/26/23) Weekend recap: The coup that was over before it started; everyone is now a deep-sea exploration expert. Thanks, Internet. End of Quarter dynamics are toying with markets: What will be seen in Q-2 results? Portfolio rebalancing by fund managers create sector rotation & selling pressure. Markets will re-test 20-DMA. Buy signals drive markets; when sell signals are triggered two things may happen: a.) market consolidation sideways, or...

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How You, too, Can Retire at 55

2023-06-23

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(6/23/23) HOUR ONE: Stories from Texas families; Market commentary: The Fed's Kabosh on Inflation: Muckflation; slow-grinding stagflation as liquidity is drained from the system. Why Roths are the J. G. Wentworth for the Gov't.; Tax benefits of a Roth; dodging the tax torpedo. Scarlet & Flo: Bring back 'Kiss my Grits;' the most-popular US migration destination cities; Why did Darden purchase Ruth's Chris' as affluent shoppers flock to Dollar...

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