Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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COT Black: German Factories, Oklahoma Tank Farms, And FRBNY

2020-02-09

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2020-02-09

Germany Factory Orders, SA 2014-2019
I wrote a few months ago that Germany’s factories have been the perfect example of the eurodollar squeeze. The disinflationary tendency that even central bankers can’t ignore once it shows up in the global economy as obvious headwinds. What made and still makes German industry noteworthy is the way it has unfolded and continues to unfold. The downtrend just won’t stop.

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Dollar Firm Ahead of US Jobs Report

2020-02-08

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2020-02-08

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths continue to rise; the dollar continues to climb. The January jobs data is the highlight for the week; Canada also reports jobs data. The Fed submits its semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress today; Mexico and Brazil report January inflation data.

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Vaping: what people are getting wrong | The Economist

2020-02-07

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A youth vaping “epidemic” and a mysterious outbreak of lung disease in America has led to curbs on e-cigarette flavours. A backlash against vaping is perpetuating myths about nicotine-based e-cigarette products that are not backed up by scientific research. Read more here: https://econ.st/2vh0zP6 Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Further reading: …

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Pandemic, Lies and Videos

2020-02-07

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2020-02-07

Will we wonder, what were we thinking? and marvel anew at the madness of crowds? When we look back on this moment from the vantage of history, what will we think? Will we think how obvious it was that the coronavirus deaths in China were in the tens of thousands rather than the hundreds claimed by authorities?

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Dollar Firm as Markets Await Fresh Drivers

2020-02-06

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2020-02-06

China cut tariffs on $75 bln of US imports by half, while the US said it could reciprocate in some way. The dollar continues to climb; during the North American session, only minor data will be reported; Brazil cut rates 25 bp. Germany reported very weak December factory orders; all is not well in the German state of Thuringia.

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Don’t Forget (Business) Credit

2020-02-05

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2020-02-05

Europe Real GDP, 1995-2019
Rolling over in credit stats, particularly business debt, is never a good thing for an economy. As noted yesterday, in Europe it’s not definite yet but sure is pronounced. The pattern is pretty clear even if we don’t ultimately know how it will play out from here. The process of reversing is at least already happening and so we are left to hope that there is some powerful enough positive force (a real force rather than imaginary, therefore...

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All-Stars #92 Jeff Snider: Did anything really get “better” last September?

2020-02-04

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Please visit our website www.macrovoices.com to register your free account to gain access to supporting materials. Go to : http://bit.ly/2Sg4W54 for Jeff's chartbook

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Dollar Mixed as Some Risk Appetite Returns

2020-02-04

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2020-02-04

The dollar continues to climb; one of side-effects of the virus has been a swelling of the amount of negative yielding debt globally. The US primary season got off to a rocky start for the Democrats. During the North American session, December factory orders will be reported; the US economy remains strong.

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Brace for Impact: Global Pandemic Already Baked In

2020-02-04

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2020-02-04

Exponential Growth and the Expansion of the Coronavirus
If we accept what is known about the virus, then logic, science and probabilities all suggest we brace for impact. Here's a summary of what is known or credibly estimated about the 2019-nCoV virus as of January 31, 2019: 1. A statistical study from highly credentialed Chinese academics estimates the virus has an RO (R-naught) of slightly over 4, meaning every carrier infects four other people on average.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-02-03

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2020-02-03

Emerging Markets Currencies
EM remains vulnerable to deteriorating risk sentiment as the coronavirus spreads.  China announced a series of measures over the weekend to help support its financial markets, but this may not be enough to turn sentiment around yet.  China markets reopen Monday after the extended Lunar New Year holiday and it won’t be pretty.

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History Shows You Should Infer Nothing From Powell’s Pause

2020-02-02

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2020-02-02

The Fed Midpoint, 2007-2008
Jay Powell says that three’s not a crowd, at least not for his rate cuts, but four would be. As usual, central bankers like him always hedge and say that “should conditions warrant” the FOMC will be more than happy to indulge (the NYSE). But what he means in his heart of hearts is that there probably won’t be any need.

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Three Straight Quarters of 2 percent, And Yet Each One Very Different

2020-02-02

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2020-02-02

Eurodollar Disruption, Peaks & Troughs, 2011-2019
Headline GDP growth during the fourth quarter of 2019 was 2.05849% (continuously compounded annual rate), slightly lower than the (revised) 2.08169% during Q3. For the year, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) puts total real output at $19.07 trillion, or annual growth of 2.33% and down from 2.93% in 2018. Last year was weaker than 2017, the second lowest out of the six since 2013.

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Second-Order Effects: The Unexpectedly Slippery Path to Dow 10,000

2020-02-01

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2020-02-01

China Total Debt and Nominal GDP, 1995-2017
Dow 30,000 is "unsinkable," just like the Titanic. A recent Barrons cover celebrating the euphoric inevitability of Dow 30,000 captured the mainstream zeitgeist perfectly: Corporate America is firing on all cylinders, the Federal Reserve's god-like powers will push stocks higher regardless of any other reality, blah blah blah.

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Dollar Firm Ahead of BOE Decision

2020-01-31

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2020-01-31

The World Health Organization called an emergency meeting today; the dollar continues to climb. The FOMC meeting was a non-event; US advance Q4 GDP will be reported. Risk-off sentiment has derailed curve steepening trades. Implied rates still suggest that today’s BOE meeting is a coin toss.

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Charles Hugh Smith – Real Reason for Record Stock Markets: Front-running the Front-runners

2020-01-30

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Returning SBTV guest, Charles Hugh Smith, calls the Federal Reserve an evil organization. Their meddling in the economy results in the concentration of wealth to those at the top of the wealth pyramid and is fueling asset bubbles, creating widening wealth inequality. Charles Hugh Smith is the editor of the OfTwoMinds blog: https://www.oftwominds.com Discussed in …

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Could the Coronavirus Epidemic Be the Tipping Point in the Supply Chain Leaving China?

2020-01-30

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2020-01-30

China Share of World Exports, 2000-2018
Everyone expecting a quick resolution to the epidemic and a rapid return to pre-epidemic conditions would be well-served by looking beyond first-order effects. While the media naturally focuses on the immediate effects of the coronavirus epidemic, the possible second-order effects receive little attention: first order, every action has a consequence. Second order, every consequence has its own consequence.

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With No Second Half Rebound, Confirming The Squeeze

2020-01-29

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2020-01-29

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey, 2006-2019
It’s a palpable impatience. Having learned absolutely nothing from the most recent German example, there’s this pervasive belief that if the economy hasn’t fallen apart by now it must be going the other way. The right way. Those are the only two options for mainstream analysis (which means it isn’t analysis).

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Charity: how effective is giving? | The Economist

2020-01-28

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Today’s super-rich are putting record sums into tackling the world’s most pressing problems. But how altruistic is this golden age of charitable giving? Read more here: https://econ.st/3aHRmjc Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Today’s super-wealthy are richer than ever. And they’re giving away their billions like never before. Philanthropists are putting …

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Tentative Stabilization

2020-01-28

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2020-01-28

Implied Volatility Measures, 2018-2019
Risk-off continues in Asia, but moves have been less dramatic. European market jittery but stable. Implied rates now pricing in a full Fed cut by September. The UK will announce its decision on Huawei’s access to the country’s 5G network.

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Charles Hugh Smith on the Emerging Repo Crisis

2020-01-28

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Charles Hugh Smith on the Emerging Repo Crisis http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2020/01/27/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-the-emerging-repo-crisis/

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