Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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WTF: What The Fed?! Mike Maloney, Chris Martenson, Grant Williams & Charles Hugh Smith

2020-01-17

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Get the bonus video here: https://www.peakprosperity.com/wtf-what-the-fed-insights-from-advisers-sign-up “The plain truth is… we are in the middle of QE4 right now” – Grant Williams during WTF: What the Fed. The Federal Reserve looks to be pumping a healthy patient of full of drugs… Something is not adding up. And Mike Maloney agrees… He recently recorded a free …

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Instability Rising: Why 2020 Will Be Different

2020-01-16

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2020-01-16

Shares of Gross Domestic Income, 1960-2019
In 2020, increasing monetary and fiscal stimulus will be the equivalent of spraying gasoline on a fire to extinguish it. Economically, the 11 years since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 have been one relatively coherent era of modest growth, rising wealth/income inequality and coordinated central bank stimulus every time a crisis threatened to disrupt the domestic or global economy.

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Clarida Picks Up Some Data

2020-01-16

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2020-01-16

China Exports, 2006-2019
I should know better than to make declarative all-or-none statements like this. I said there isn’t any data which comports with the idea of a global turnaround, this shakeup in sentiment which since early September has gone right from one extreme to the other. Recession fears predominated in summer only to be (rather easily) replaced by near euphoria (again).

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Very Rough Shape, And That’s With The Payroll Data We Have Now

2020-01-15

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2020-01-15

Household Survey: Civilian Employment, 2017-2019
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has begun the process of updating its annual benchmarks. Actually, the process began last year and what’s happening now is that the government is releasing its findings to the public. Up first is the Household Survey, the less-watched, more volatile measure which comes at employment from the other direction. As the name implies, the BLS asks households who in them is working whereas the more closely scrutinized...

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Some Thoughts on the Latest Treasury FX Report

2020-01-15

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2020-01-15

FX Report
The US Treasury’s latest “Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States” report no longer considers China a currency manipulator. The underlying message is that the Trump administration will continue to use an ad hoc “carrot and stick” approach to improve US access to the domestic markets of its major trading partners.

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How science is changing the nature of families | The Economist

2020-01-14

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Science is enabling women to have children later in life as new technologies transform IVF success rates. But an increasingly globalised IVF trade also poses dangers. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Science is changing how and when families are made. Women are going to be able to have both career …

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Repo Market: Discover New Insider Secrets (THIS WILL BLOW YOUR MIND!)

2020-01-14

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Repo market insider Jeff Snider reveals shocking new facts ?YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO MISS! ?The repo market survived the end of the year but the fed is still printing money to bail out the system. Repo market operations seem to have become permanent. But Jeff Snider has a completely different explanations, and as usually Jeff Sniders repo market explanations seem far better researched, articulated and probable. And of course I explain them to you so...

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Just a Friendly Heads-Up, Bulls: The Fed Just Slashed its Balance Sheet

2020-01-14

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2020-01-14

Assets: Total Assets, 2019-2020
Perhaps even PhD economists notice that manic-mania bubbles always burst--always. Just a friendly heads-up to all the Bulls bowing and murmuring prayers to the Golden Idol of the Federal Reserve: the Fed just slashed its balance sheet--yes, reduced its assets. After panic-printing $410 billion in a few months, a $24 billion decline isn't much, but it does suggest the Fed might finally be worrying about the reckless, insane bubble it inflated:

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Not Abating, Not By A Longshot

2020-01-14

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2020-01-14

Mexican Economy, 2006-2019
Since I advertised the release last week, here’s Mexico’s update to Industrial Production in November 2019. The level of production was estimated to have fallen by 1.8% from November 2018. It was up marginally on a seasonally-adjusted basis from its low in October.

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All-Stars #88 Jeff Snider: The Fed is avoiding the real issue driving divergences in their models

2020-01-13

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Please visit our website www.macrovoices.com to register your free account to gain access to supporting materials.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-01-13

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2020-01-13

EM has been able to get some traction as markets basically shrugged off the risk-off sentiment after the Iran attacks.  This week’s planned signing of the Phase One trade deal should help boost EM further, but we remain cautious.  The Iran situation is by no means solved, and we see periodic bouts of risk-off sentiment coming from smaller skirmishes. 

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Global Headwinds and Disinflationary Pressures

2020-01-11

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2020-01-11

Mexican Economy, 2006-2019
I’m going to go back to Mexico for the third day in a row. First it was imports (meaning Mexico’s exports) then automobile manufacturing and now Industrial Production. I’ll probably come back to this tomorrow when INEGI updates that last number for November 2019. For now, through October will do just fine, especially in light of where automobile production is headed (ICYMI, off the bottom of the charts).

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The Fed Can’t Reverse the Decline of Financialization and Globalization

2020-01-10

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2020-01-10

Student Loans Owned and Securitized, 2008-2018
The global economy and financial system are both running on the last toxic fumes of financialization and globalization. For two generations, globalization and financialization have been the two engines of global growth and soaring assets. Globalization can mean many things, but its beating heart is the arbitraging of the labor of the powerless, and commodity, environmental and tax costs by the powerful to increase their profits and wealth.

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Dollar Builds on Gains as Iran Tensions Ease

2020-01-09

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2020-01-09

Markets have reacted positively to President Trump’s press conference yesterday, while the dollar continues to gain traction. The North American session is quiet in terms of US data. Mexico reports December CPI; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 2.25%. German November IP was slightly better than expected but still tepid; sterling took a hit on dovish comments by outgoing BOE Governor Carney.

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The Real Trade Dilemma

2020-01-09

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2020-01-09

US Imports of Goods, NSA 2016-2019
When I write that there are no winners around the world, what I mean is more comprehensive than just the trade wars. On that one narrow account, of course there are winners and losers. The Chinese are big losers, as the Census Bureau numbers plainly show (as well as China’s own). But even the winners of the trade wars find themselves wondering where all the spoils are.

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More Trends That Ended 2019 The Wrong Way

2020-01-08

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2020-01-08

US Trade, SA 2016-2019
Auto sales in 2019 ended on a skid. Still, the year as a whole wasn’t nearly as bad as many had feared. Last year got off on the wrong foot in the aftermath of 2018’s landmine, with auto sales like consumer spending down pretty sharply to begin it. Spending did rebound in mid-year if only somewhat, enough, though, to add a little more to the worst-is-behind-us narrative which finished off 2019.

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Manufacturing Clears Up Bond Yields

2020-01-07

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2020-01-07

Federal Reserve Regional Manu. PMI, 2016-2019
Yesterday, IHS Markit reported that the manufacturing turnaround its data has been suggesting stalled. After its flash manufacturing PMI had fallen below 50 several times during last summer (only to be revised to slightly above 50 every time the complete survey results were tabulated), beginning in September 2019 the index staged a rebound jumping first to 51.1 in that month.

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WTF: What The Fed?! – Mike Maloney, Chris Martenson, Grant Williams, Charles Hugh Smith, A. Taggart

2020-01-06

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Watch the full event free at https://www.peakprosperity.com/wtf-what-the-fed/ “The plain truth is… we are in the middle of QE4 right now” – Grant Williams during WTF: What the Fed. The Federal Reserve looks to be pumping a healthy patient of full of drugs… Something is not adding up. And Mike Maloney agrees… He recently recorded a …

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Is This “The Top”?

2020-01-06

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2020-01-06

Apple, Operating income, 2006-2019
Parabolic moves end when the confidence that the parabolic move can't end becomes the consensus. The consensus seems to be that the stock market is on its way to much higher levels, and soon. The near-term targets for the S&P 500 (SPX, currently around 3,235) range from 3,500 to 4,000, with longer-term targets reaching "the sky's the limit."

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-01-06

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2020-01-06

While the global economic backdrop remains favorable for EM, rising geopolitical risks will be a growing headwind. The EM VIX surged above 18% Friday as Iran tensions escalated, the highest since early December. With these tensions likely to persist, EM may remain under some pressure for the time being. High oil prices are positive for the exporters in Latin America and the Middle East but negative for the importers in Asia and Eastern Europe.

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