Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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The Greenspan Moon Cult

2020-03-05

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2020-03-05

US Treasury Curve, 2007-2019
Taking another look at what I wrote about repo and the latest developments yesterday, it may be worthwhile to spend some additional time on the “why” as it pertains to so much determined official blindness, an unshakeable devotion to otherwise easily explained lunar events.

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Updated Democratic Primary Timeline

2020-03-05

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2020-03-05

RCP Betting Average
Super Tuesday has come and gone. Bloomberg has suspended his campaign after an extremely poor showing, and Warren is expected to follow suit soon. Here is our updated take on the likely Democratic candidate.

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Election 2020: How do America’s presidential primaries work? | The Economist

2020-03-04

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As the Democratic primary race enters its busiest period, John Prideaux, The Economist’s US editor, gives his essential guide to understanding the process by which America’s presidential candidates are chosen. Read more here: https://econ.st/2IdvpvD Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/

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A Day For Rate Cuts

2020-03-04

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2020-03-04

Total Credit Market, 1980-2015
Well, that wasn’t he had in mind. The whole point of a rate cut, any rate cut let alone an emergency fifty, is to signal especially the stock market that the Fed is in the business of…something. The public has been led, by and large, to assume that something good happens when the Fed Chair shows up on TV.

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Did Covid-19 Just Pop All the Global Financial Bubbles?

2020-03-04

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2020-03-04

All Sectors Debt Securities and loans, 1960-2019
Once confidence and certainty are lost, the willingness to expand debt and leverage collapses. Even though the first-order effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are still impossible to predict, it's already possible to ask: did the pandemic pop all the global financial bubbles? The reason we can ask this question is the entire bull mania of the 21st century has been based on a permanently high rate of expansion of leverage and debt.

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Election 2020: What could Super Tuesday mean for the future of the Democratic Party? | The Economist

2020-03-02

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As America heads into Super Tuesday, the race to become the Democratic nominee for president is approaching a decisive moment. John Prideaux, The Economist’s US editor, discusses the implications on “Checks and Balance”, The Economist’s podcast about American politics. If you’d like to subscribe to our Checks and Balance podcast, click here: https://econ.st/39iBwKH Click here …

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-03-02

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2020-03-02

The dollar has softened as Fed easing expectations have picked up. Late Friday, Chair Powell issued an unscheduled statement saying the Fed is monitoring the virus and will act as appropriate. This is a big data week for the US; the Fed releases its Beige Book report Wednesday. Super Tuesday comes this week; Bank of Canada meets Wednesday.

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The Limits of Force: A Bayonet in the Back Will Not Restore China’s Economy

2020-03-02

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2020-03-02

Exponential Growth and the Expansion of the coronavirus
Force cannot restore legitimacy, trust or confidence, nor can it magically erase the consequences of a still-unfolding national trauma. The Chinese authorities threatening to punish workers who refuse to return to work are getting a lesson in the limits of force in an unprecedented national trauma: a bayonet in the back will not restore the legitimacy and confidence that have been lost.

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Could the Covid-19 Pandemic Collapse the U.S. Healthcare System?

2020-03-01

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2020-03-01

Еxponential growth and the expansion of the coronavirus
Disregard these second-order effects at your own peril. A great many systems that are assumed to be robust are actually fragile. Exhibit #1 is the global financial system, of course, but Exhibit #2 may well be the healthcare system globally and in the U.S.

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Jeff Snider Part 2/2 (Repo Mkt/Eurodollar Expert) Rebel Capitalist Show Ep. 19

2020-02-29

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Jeff Snider reveals insights ?YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO MISS! ?This interview with Jeff Snider is so packed with knowledge bombs we had to turn it into 2 parts! This is PART 2 of 2, and trust me, it will blow your mind! As always, The Rebel Capitalist show helps YOU learn more about Macro, Investing, Entrepreneurship AND Personal Freedom. Jeff and I discuss how money is actually created and how US dollars (Eurodollars) have been created, outside the...

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Dollar Mixed as Coronavirus News Stream Deteriorates

2020-02-28

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2020-02-28

The virus news stream continues to deteriorate. Lower US yields and growing concerns about the spread of the coronavirus in the US are taking a toll on the greenback. OPEC officials are trying to work out another supply cut; The outlook for Turkey is going from bad to worse. Simply put, there is nothing the Fed can do to address the economic impact of supply chain disruptions and social distancing.

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How can the Democrats beat Trump? | The Economist

2020-02-27

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As the 2020 US presidential election looms, many Democrats say they will vote for the candidate with the best chance of beating Donald Trump. So what is the best strategy to defeat him? Read more here: https://econ.st/2IdvpvD Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Further reading and listening: The Economist’s guide to …

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Jeff Snider (Repo Mkt/Eurodollar Expert) Rebel Capitalist Show Ep. 19 Part 1 of 2

2020-02-27

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Jeff Snider reveals insights ?YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO MISS! ?This interview with Jeff Snider is so packed with knowledge bombs we had to turn it into 2 parts! This is PART 1 of 2, and trust me, it will blow your mind! As always, The Rebel Capitalist show helps YOU learn more about Macro, Investing, Entrepreneurship AND Personal Freedom. Jeff and I discuss how money is actually created and how US dollars (Eurodollars) have been created, outside the...

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No, The Fed Will Not “Save the Market”–Here’s Why

2020-02-27

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2020-02-27

The Rising Wedge Model of Breakdown
The greater the excesses, speculative euphoria and moral hazard, the greater the reversal. A very convenient conviction is rising in the panicked financial netherworld that the Federal Reserve and its fellow dark lords will "save the market" from COVID-19 collapse. They won't. I already explained why in The Fed Has Created a Monster Bubble It Can No Longer Control (February 16, 2020) but it bears repeating.

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Economy: Curved Again

2020-02-27

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2020-02-27

Mexican Economy, 2016-2019
Earlier today, Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) confirmed the country’s economy is in recession. Updating its estimate for Q4 GDP, year-over-year output declined by 0.5% rather than -0.3% as first thought. On a quarterly basis, GDP was down for the second consecutive quarter which mainstream convention treats as a technical recession.

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Jeff Snider Show Reel 2020

2020-02-26

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Show Reel featuring the work of Jeff Snider.

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All-Stars #94 Jeff Snider: The slowdown started before the Coronavirus hit the tape!

2020-02-26

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Please visit our website https://www.macrovoices.com to register your free account to gain access to supporting materials. Jeff Snider Chartbook: http://bit.ly/2T1IZbB

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Schaetze To That

2020-02-26

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2020-02-26

Inflation Europe, 2007-2020
When Mario Draghi sat down for his scheduled press conference on April 4, 2012, it was a key moment and he knew it. The ECB had finished up the second of its “massive” LTRO auctions only weeks before. Draghi was still relatively new to the job, having taken over for Jean-Claude Trichet the prior November amidst substantial turmoil.

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Seven Big-Picture Considerations for Covid-19

2020-02-26

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2020-02-26

Yuan Performance vs. Major Trading Partners, 2020
Below is a non-exhaustive list of medium- and long-term implications from the Covid-19. We discuss the yuan, China’s competitiveness, its position in the global production chains, the impact on the Phase One trade deal, and rising financial stability risks. Globally, the virus will bring about a new wave of fiscal spending and revive the discussions about the limits of monetary policy.

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Was It A Midpoint And Did We Already Pass Through It?

2020-02-25

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2020-02-25

Benchmark 10-year UST, 2010-2013
We certainly don’t have a crystal ball at the ready, and we can’t predict the future. The best we might hope is to entertain reasonable probabilities for it oftentimes derived from how we see the past. Which is just what statistics and econometrics attempt. Except, wherein they go wrong we don’t have to make their mistakes.

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