Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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It’s Hard To See Anything But Enormous Long-term Cost

2020-04-07

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2020-04-07

The unemployment rate wins again. In a saner era, back when what was called economic growth was actually economic growth, this primary labor ratio did a commendable job accurately indicating the relative conditions in the labor market. You didn’t go looking for corroboration because it was all around; harmony in numbers for a far more peaceful and serene period.

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Dollar Mixed, Equities Higher as Virus News Stream Improves

2020-04-07

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2020-04-07

It was a relatively good weekend in virus-related news; measures of implied volatility continue to trend lower. The dollar is trying to build on its recent gains; investors continue to try and gauge just how bad the US economy will get hit. The outlook for oil prices remains highly uncertain and volatile.

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If Lockdown Is a Needless Over-Reaction, Then Why Did China Lockdown Half its Economy?

2020-04-06

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2020-04-06

Exponential growth and the expansion of the coronavirus
Recall that the initial deaths and related costs are only the first-order effects; policy makers have to consider the second-order effects. Everyone who reckons that the lockdown is needless and more destructive than the pandemic that triggered it has to answer this question: then why did China lockdown half its economy?

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-04-06

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2020-04-06

EM may get a little support from a potential OPEC+ deal to limit oil.  Even if a deal is struck, the impact is likely to be fleeting as the global growth outlook remains terrible.  We remain negative on EM for the time being.

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When Bulls Are Over-Anxious to Catch the Rocketship Higher, This Isn’t the Bottom

2020-04-05

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2020-04-05

Apple operating income, 2006-2019
Everyone with any position in today's market will be able to say they lived through a real Bear Market. In the echo chamber of a Bull Market, there's always a reason to get bullish: the consumer is spending, housing is strong, the Fed has our back, multiples are expanding, earnings are higher, stock buybacks will push valuations up, and so on, in an essentially endless parade of self-referential reasons to buy, buy, buy and ride the rocketship...

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Covid-19: how bad will it be for the economy? | The Economist

2020-04-03

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The coronavirus pandemic has killed thousands of people, crashed stockmarkets around the world, driven 10m Americans to claim unemployment and caused businesses to haemorrhage money. With economies in turmoil, how bad will the damage be? Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest covid-19 coverage: https://econ.trib.al/StVR1bU Find The …

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Banks Or (euro)Dollars? That Is The (only) Question

2020-04-03

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2020-04-03

UST Yields & Money Alternates, 2007-2009
It used to be that at each quarter’s end the repo rate would rise often quite far. You may recall the end of 2018, following a wave of global liquidations and curve collapsing when the GC rate (UST) skyrocketed to 5.149%, nearly 300 bps above the RRP “floor.” Chalked up to nothing more than 2a7 or “too many” Treasuries, it was to be ignored as the Fed at that point was still forecasting inflation and rate hikes.

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Dollar Bid as Market Sentiment Worsens

2020-04-03

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2020-04-03

The virus news stream out of Europe has improved a bit. The US is already taking about the next relief bill; the Fed continues to roll out measures to address dollar funding issues. ADP and ISM manufacturing PMI are the US data highlights. Regulators across Europe are asking banks to stop paying dividends; eurozone and UK reported final manufacturing PMIs.

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The Wonderful Insanity of Globalization

2020-04-02

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2020-04-02

The Wonderful Efficiencies of Globalization
So here's an April Fools congrats to globalization's many fools. The tradition here at Of Two Minds is to make use of April Fool's Day for a bit of parody or satire, but I'm breaking with tradition and presenting something that is all too real but borders on parody: the wonderful insanity of globalization.

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Gadfly Public Interview: Charles Hugh Smith – Of Two Minds Blog

2020-04-01

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Start your FREE 30-day subscription today https://thegadfly.vhx.tv/ Visit and support Charles with his work: https://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

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Charles Hugh Smith on the Social, Financial and Economic Implications of the Coronavirus!

2020-04-01

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Charles Hugh Smith on the Social, Financial and Economic Implications of the Coronavirus! http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2020/04/01/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-the-social-financial-and-economic-implications-of-the-coronavirus/

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China’s Back!

2020-04-01

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2020-04-01

China PMI, 2005-2020
The Washington Post began this week by noting how the US economy seems to have lost its purported zip just when it needed that vitality the most. Never missing a chance to take a partisan swipe, of course, still there’s quite a lot of truth behind the charge. An actual economic boom produces cushion, enough of one that President Trump and his administration may have been counting on it when opting for full-blown shutdown.

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Sample Hour Live – Two Beers with Charles – Charles Hugh Smith

2020-04-01

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Multistreaming with https://restream.io/?ref=pKNQQ

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Covid-19: more questions about coronavirus, answered | The Economist

2020-03-31

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What has the world learned about the novel coronavirus and its knock-on effects on the global economy? Ed Carr, The Economist’s deputy editor, and Alok Jha, our science correspondent, answer more of your questions about the virus. Find all of The Economist’s coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.st/33HyqOB Click here to subscribe to The Economist on …

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(No) Dollars And (No) Sense: Eighty Argentinas

2020-03-31

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2020-03-31

India Official Reserve Assets, 2016-2020
India like many emerging market countries around the world holds an enormous stockpile of foreign exchange reserves. According to the latest weekly calculation published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country’s central bank, that total was a bit less than half a trillion. While it sounds impressive, when the month began the balance was much closer to that mark.

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The End of Globalization & Financialization Leads To A New Monetary System – Charles Hugh Smith

2020-03-30

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Thanks for watching this RTD Q&A ft. Charles Hugh Smith. Share your thoughts in the comment section below. Subscribe & click the ? icon to be notified of the next livestream. Consider becoming a supporter of the RTD Channel. All gifts add up to make a difference. Thanks RTD Patreon (Monthly Support): https://www.patreon.com/rtd RTD Donation …

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Making Sense Eurodollar University Episode 2

2020-03-30

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Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research at Alhambra Investments, and Emil Kalinowski make sense of today's global monetary system.

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The New (Forced) Frugality

2020-03-30

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2020-03-30

Personal Saving Rate, 1960-2020
There are only two ways to survive a decline in income and net worth: slash expenses or default on debt. In post-World War II America, the cultural zeitgeist viewed frugality as a choice: permanent economic growth and federal anti-poverty programs steadily reduced the number of people in deep economic hardship (i.e. forced frugality) and raised the living standards of those in hardship to the point that the majority of households could choose to be...

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-03-30

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2020-03-30

Markets continue to digest the implications of the Fed’s bazooka moment last week. The data highlight this week will be March jobs data Friday; key manufacturing sector data will come out earlier in the week. On Friday, BOC delivered an emergency 50 bp rate cut to 0.25% and started QE.

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It’s Not About Jobless Claims Today, It’s About What Will Hamper Job Growth In A Few Months

2020-03-29

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2020-03-29

Two Labor Stories, 1995-2019
You’ve no doubt heard about the jobless claims number. At an incomprehensible 3.28 million Americans filing for unemployment for the first time, this level far exceeded the wildest expectations as the economic costs of the shutdown continue to come in far more like the worst case. And as bad as 3mm is, the real hidden number is likely much higher.

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