Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2020

2020-08-22

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2020-08-22

One of the advantages we enjoy here at Alhambra is the opportunity to interact with a lot of investors. We talk to hundreds of individual investors on a monthly basis, giving us a front-row seat to everyone’s fear and greed. Economic data tells us about the past, which isn’t particularly useful for investors focused on the future.

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Part 2 of June TIC: The Dollar Why

2020-08-21

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2020-08-21

Federal Reserve: H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates, 2008-2020
Before getting into the why of the dollar’s stubbornly high exchange value in the face of so much “money printing”, we need to first go back and undertake a decent enough review of the guts maybe even the central focus of the global (euro)dollar system.

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Our Systemic Drift to Collapse

2020-08-21

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2020-08-21

How systems collapse
Thus do the lazy complacent passengers drift inexorably toward the cataracts of collapse just ahead. The boat ride down to the waterfall of systemic collapse is not dramatic, it's lazy drifting: a lazy complacency that doing more of what worked in the past will work again, and an equally lazy disregard for how far the system has drifted from the point when things actually worked.

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Where Has All the Carry Gone?

2020-08-21

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2020-08-21

Greater China EM Carry, 2000-2020
Despite broad-based dollar weakness, EM currencies have not fully participated in the risk on environment that’s now in place. The good news is that fundamentals matter again. The bad news is that there are a lot of EM countries with bad fundamentals, and the secular decline in carry no longer gives these weaklings any cover.

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Part 1 of June TIC: The Dollar What

2020-08-20

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2020-08-20

ICE: US Index Futures DX1, 2017-2020
While the world is taking the smallest of baby steps in the right direction, mostly it’s been related to the part of the eurodollar system that everyone can see. Not bank reserves and the Fed’s “money printing”, though you can see them and we’re told to obsess about them those things don’t matter.

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Covid-19: Bill Gates predicts the end of the pandemic | The Economist

2020-08-19

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Bill Gates had long warned of the risk that a new virus would go global. Now he explains to Zanny Minton Beddoes, our editor-in-chief, how—and when—the covid-19 pandemic is likely to end. To find out more read here: https://econ.st/3aCqVvI 00:00 Introduction 00:50 Are we spending enough? 01:51 Why aren't we spending the billions to save the trillions? 03:35 What is realistic for the global coverage of a vaccine? 04:55 Will anti-vaxxers be a...

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Case Study: Advances in Modular WWTP Design by Jeffrey Snider-Nevan, Newterra Decentralized Water

2020-08-19

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Webinar – Tuesday, August 18, 2020 With our many brands and vast water treatment technologies, we invite you to experience this online library of unique and informative presentations packed with valuable insight, new products & technologies, and product demonstrations relevant to today's water industry. Enjoy! Newterra’s Reclaiming The World’s Water (A Virtual Expo by Newterra) August 18 & 19, 2020

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The Empire Will Strike Back: Dollar Supremacy Is the Fed’s Imperial Mandate

2020-08-19

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2020-08-19

Triffin's Paradox demands painful trade-offs to issue a reserve currency, and it demands the issuing central bank serve two competing audiences and markets. Judging by the headlines and pundit chatter, the U.S. dollar is about to slide directly to zero. This sense of certitude is interesting, given that no empire prospered by devaluing its currency. 

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Here’s Why the “Impossible” Economic Collapse Is Unavoidable

2020-08-18

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2020-08-18

The Rising Wedge Model of Breakdown
This is why denormalization is an extinction event for much of our high-cost, high-complexity, heavily regulated economy. A collapse of major chunks of the economy is widely viewed as "impossible" because the federal government can borrow and spend unlimited amounts of money because the Federal Reserve can create unlimited amounts of money: the government borrows $1 trillion by selling $1 trillion in Treasury bonds, the Fed prints $1 trillion...

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It Was Bad In The Other Sense, So Now What?

2020-08-18

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2020-08-18

Japan Real GDP, 2008-2020
According to the latest figures, Japan has tallied 56,074 total coronavirus cases since the outbreak began, leading to the death of an estimated 1,103 Japanese citizens. Out of a total population north of 125 million, it’s hugely incongruous.

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It’s Do-or-Die, Deep State: Either Strangle the Stock Market Rally Now or Cede the Election to Trump

2020-08-17

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2020-08-17

With only 56 trading days and fewer than 80 calendar days to the election, the Deep State camps seeking to torpedo Trump's re-election have reached the do-or-die point. Back in June I speculated that the only way the Deep State could deep-six Trump's re-election was to sink the stock market rally, which the president has long touted as evidence of his economic leadership.

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Covid-19: When will a vaccine be ready? | The Economist

2020-08-14

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Around $10bn is being spent on finding a vaccine for coronavirus—it’s not nearly enough. And even when a covid-19 vaccine is found how should it be distributed fairly? Our experts answer your questions. 00:50 - Will there ever be a “silver-bullet” vaccine? 01:41 - How long would it take for the whole world to be vaccinated? 02:25 - Who benefits financially from the vaccine? 03:54 - How much will each vaccine cost? 05:10 - What percentage of...

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Fama 2: No Inflation For Old Central Banks

2020-08-14

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2020-08-14

CPI less Food & Energy, 1983-2020
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the core CPI in July 2020 jumped by the most (+0.62%) in almost thirty years. After having dropped month-over-month for three months in a row for the first time in its history, it has posted back to back gains the latest of which pushing the index back above its February level.

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Charles Hugh Smith – In The World Change Process

2020-08-13

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The world is in the process of change. Especially in terms of health and economy, the world has experienced the biggest chaos of recent times. We are seeing signs of transition to the new economic order. What are the plans? SUBSCRIBE For The Latest Issues About ; #useconomy2020 #economynews #useconomy #coronaviruseconomy #marketeconomy #worldeconomy #reopeneconomy #openeconomy #economynews #reopeningeconomy #globaleconomy #silverprice...

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Eugene Fama’s Efficient View of Stimulus Porn

2020-08-13

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2020-08-13

The Real GDP Problem, 1988-2018
The key word in the whole thing is “bias.” For a very long time, people working in and around the finance industry have sought to gain tremendous advantages. No explanation for the motive is required. Charts, waves, technical (sounding) analysis and so on.

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Dollar Softens, Equities Rise as Markets Ignore the Negatives

2020-08-12

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2020-08-12

Real Yields and Gold, 2018-2020
Markets seem to be increasingly desensitized to the usual negative drivers; the dollar is under pressure again. Stimulus talks remain stalled; reports suggest Trump is mulling a capital gains tax cut of some sort. US data highlight today will be July PPI; US Treasury begins its record $112 bln quarterly refunding.

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Science of Sentiment: Zooming Expectations Wonder

2020-08-12

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2020-08-12

It had been an unusually heated gathering, one marked by temper tantrums and often publicly expressed rancor. Slamming tables, undiplomatic rudeness. Europe’s leaders had been brought together by the uncomfortable even dangerous fact that the economic dislocation they’ve put their countries through is going to sustain enormously negative pressures all throughout them. What would a “united” European system do to try and fill in this massive hole?The...

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Shrinkflation, Hidden Inflation, and Jeff Snider

2020-08-11

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A certain faction (e.g. Jeff Snider, Jerome Powell, Paul Krugman) continues to beat home the idea that there is no inflation. If you remove everything that rises from the CPI and then fail to count substitutions or shrinkflation, you can come to that conclusion. But if you live in the real world, you know this is not reality. In this episode we cover hidden inflation and shrinkflation.

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* Jeff Snider! Huge Money Printing Speaks For Itself

2020-08-11

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Full Document transcript go to:https://www.financialanalysis.tv Contact advertising: Would you like to place ads on my youtube channel? Email: [email protected] Skype: akira10k Join discussion on Topic on Fan Page https://www.facebook.com/Economicpredictions/

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SPECIAL REPORT: Follow The Money – Volume 5

2020-08-11

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2020-08-11

If the recession was the first “shoe to drop”, what’s the second…or third? The shock of the self-inflicted COVID recession is behind us. What we’re all wondering now is what comes next? Will the economy recover to its previous state? Something better? Something worse? That will be determined by the second and third-order effects and they are already starting.

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