Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Eugene Fama’s Efficient View of Stimulus Porn

2020-08-13

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2020-08-13

The Real GDP Problem, 1988-2018
The key word in the whole thing is “bias.” For a very long time, people working in and around the finance industry have sought to gain tremendous advantages. No explanation for the motive is required. Charts, waves, technical (sounding) analysis and so on.

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Dollar Softens, Equities Rise as Markets Ignore the Negatives

2020-08-12

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2020-08-12

Real Yields and Gold, 2018-2020
Markets seem to be increasingly desensitized to the usual negative drivers; the dollar is under pressure again. Stimulus talks remain stalled; reports suggest Trump is mulling a capital gains tax cut of some sort. US data highlight today will be July PPI; US Treasury begins its record $112 bln quarterly refunding.

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Science of Sentiment: Zooming Expectations Wonder

2020-08-12

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2020-08-12

It had been an unusually heated gathering, one marked by temper tantrums and often publicly expressed rancor. Slamming tables, undiplomatic rudeness. Europe’s leaders had been brought together by the uncomfortable even dangerous fact that the economic dislocation they’ve put their countries through is going to sustain enormously negative pressures all throughout them. What would a “united” European system do to try and fill in this massive hole?The...

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Shrinkflation, Hidden Inflation, and Jeff Snider

2020-08-11

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A certain faction (e.g. Jeff Snider, Jerome Powell, Paul Krugman) continues to beat home the idea that there is no inflation. If you remove everything that rises from the CPI and then fail to count substitutions or shrinkflation, you can come to that conclusion. But if you live in the real world, you know this is not reality. In this episode we cover hidden inflation and shrinkflation.

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* Jeff Snider! Huge Money Printing Speaks For Itself

2020-08-11

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Full Document transcript go to:https://www.financialanalysis.tv Contact advertising: Would you like to place ads on my youtube channel? Email: [email protected] Skype: akira10k Join discussion on Topic on Fan Page https://www.facebook.com/Economicpredictions/

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SPECIAL REPORT: Follow The Money – Volume 5

2020-08-11

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2020-08-11

If the recession was the first “shoe to drop”, what’s the second…or third? The shock of the self-inflicted COVID recession is behind us. What we’re all wondering now is what comes next? Will the economy recover to its previous state? Something better? Something worse? That will be determined by the second and third-order effects and they are already starting.

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A Second JOLTS

2020-08-11

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2020-08-11

What happens when we are stunned and dazed? We filter out the noise to focus on the bare basics by getting back to our instincts, acting reflexively based upon our deeply held beliefs and especially training. When faced with a crisis and there’s no time to really think, shorthand will have to suffice.

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The Economy Is Mortally Wounded

2020-08-10

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2020-08-10

A fully financialized, totally debt and speculation-dependent economy is terminal once leverage and debt stop expanding exponentially. We all know the movie scene in which the character is wounded but dismisses it as no big deal, and then lurches into the closing sequence where we discover the wound was not inconsequential, it was mortal, and the character expires.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-08-10

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2020-08-10

The dollar got some traction against the majors towards the end of last week. This weighed on EM FX, with the high best currencies TRY, BRL, CLP, and ZAR leading the losers. We downplay risk of contagion from Turkey, but we acknowledge it will keep investors wary of the countries with poor fundamentals.

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If the “Market” Never Goes Down, The System Is Doomed

2020-08-09

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2020-08-09

Bear Market Cartoon
"Markets" that never go down aren't markets, they're signaling mechanisms of the Powers That Be. Markets are fundamentally clearing houses of information on price, demand, sentiment, expectations and so on--factual data on supply and demand, shipping costs, cost of credit, etc.--and reflections of trader and consumer emotions and psychology.

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Shoe V arning

2020-08-08

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2020-08-08

US Trade in Goods, Jan 2010 - Jul 2020
It’s no wonder we’re obsessed with shoes these days. Even the V-people, as I’ll call them, keep one wary eye glued looking behind them. Survivor’s euphoria means a lot of potentially bad things, only beginning with a false sense of survivor-hood.

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Election 2020: what a Biden victory could mean for America | The Economist

2020-08-07

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Joe Biden currently stands a good chance of winning the presidency. He is a lifelong centrist, but could turn out to be the most ambitious Democratic president in generations. Read more here: https://econ.st/31Ammy6 Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of the 2020 US election here: https://econ.st/3a2ptCN Sign up to “Checks and Balance”, our weekly newsletter on American politics: https://econ.st/3grrESz Listen to the “Checks and Balance”...

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The Bogus “Recovery,” Stress and Burnout

2020-08-07

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2020-08-07

US Stress, 2012 - 2017
We have three basic ways to counter the destructive consequences of stress.We have all experienced the disorientation and "brain freeze" that stress triggers. The pandemic and the responses to the pandemic have been continuous sources of stress, i.e. chronic stress, which is the pathway to burnout, the collapse of our ability to cope with the burdens pressing on us.

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Purchasing Managers Indigestion

2020-08-06

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2020-08-06

Europe ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment, Jan 2017 - Jul 2020
There’s already doubt given how the two major series supposedly measuring the same thing seemingly can’t agree. If the rebound was truly robust, it would show up unambiguously everywhere. But IHS Markit’s purchasing managers indices struggled to get back above 50 in July, barely getting there, suggesting the economy might be slowing or even stalling way too close to the bottom.

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5 Tax Strategies to Help you Hold on to Your Money in Retirement

2020-08-05

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2020-08-05

What is retirement, really? We think we know. So, we do our best to prepare for both current circumstances and as many surprises as we can conjure up.  After all, with people living longer than ever before your money has to last longer than ever before.

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Summer Special – Deep Dive into U.S. Dollar with Jeff Snider

2020-08-04

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MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeff Snider to the show to discuss the U.S. Dollar system, structurally how it works and why it’s leading systemically to a dollar shortage.

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Accusing the Accused of Excusing the Mountain of Evidence

2020-08-03

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2020-08-03

Germany Federal Securities, 2018-2020
Why not let the accused also sit in the jury box? The answer seems rather obvious. While maybe the truly honest man accused of a crime he did commit would vote for his own conviction, the world seems a bit short on supply of those while long and deep offering up practitioners of pure sophistry in their stead.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-08-03

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2020-08-03

EM currencies took advantage of broad dollar weakness against the majors last week, with most gaining against the greenback. Yet the week ended on a bit of a risk-off note as concerns intensified about the resurgent virus and the impact on the still-weak global economy.

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A Vaccine May Not Be the “Magical Cure” Everyone Anticipates

2020-08-03

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2020-08-03

Few appear willing to follow the probabilities of a future in which a vaccine cannot possibly be the "magic cure" everyone wants. Let's attempt the impossible and set aside all preconceptions we might have about a vaccine for Covid-19, and think it through somewhat dispassionately.

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Memo from Insiders: Dear Bagholders, Thanks for Buying Our Shares at the Top

2020-08-01

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2020-08-01

The self-sustaining recovery is a fantasy that's evaporated.What looks like a powerful, can't-lose rally to newbies is recognized as distribution by old hands. In low-volume markets (as in the past few months), insiders holding large positions can't dump all their shares at once or the price of the stock would plummet due to the thinness of the bid.

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