Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Some Thoughts on a Potential US Government Shutdown

2020-12-06

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2020-12-06

The US Congress has returned from recess with a lot on its plate.  Priority must be given to passing an omnibus spending bill that prevents a government shutdown after December 11. The next round of fiscal stimulus has taken on greater urgency and may be attached to the wider spending bill.

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Don’t Really Need ‘Em, Few More Nails Anyway

2020-12-06

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2020-12-06

Pro forma CES Private Payrolls, 2020-2021
The ISM’s Non-manufacturing PMI continued to decelerate from its high registered all the way back in July 2020. In that month, the headline index reached 58.1, the best since early 2019, and for many signaling that everything was coming up “V.”

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Dollar Stabilizes but Weakness to Resume

2020-12-05

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2020-12-05

Performance vs. Dollar, 2020
There are new efforts to pass another round of stimulus sooner rather than later; we warn against getting too optimistic; US bond yields rose in anticipation of stimulus; Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin gave somewhat conflicting outlooks for the US.

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Charles Hugh Smith on Parallels of the Great Fire of Rome 64 AD to Today

2020-12-04

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Charles Hugh Smith on Parallels of the Great Fire of Rome 64 AD to Today http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2020/12/03/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-parallels-of-the-great-fire-of-rome-64-ad-to-today/ Receive trading ideas weekly from Yra: https://cedarportfolio.com/yra-signup-form

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Life after Trump: what’s the future of the Republican Party? | The Economist

2020-12-04

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Donald Trump has finally accepted that a presidential transition from his administration to Joe Biden’s should begin. We answer your questions on what the Republican Party could look like in a post-Trump world. Chapters: 00:00 Trump’s impact on the Republican Party 00:35 Party support for Trump 02:16 Trumpism after Trump 05:37 The era of “alternative facts” 06:56 The GOP in a more diverse America 08:40 The outlook for 2024 Find The Economist’s...

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There Have Actually Been Some Jobs Saved, Only In Place of Recovery

2020-12-04

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2020-12-04

IHS Markit US Manufacturing, 2012-2020
The ISM reported a small decline in its manufacturing PMI today. The index had moved up to 59.3 for the month of October 2020 in what had been its highest since September 2018. For November, the setback was nearly two points, bringing the headline down to an estimate of 57.5.

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Dollar Plumbs New Depths With No Relief In Sight

2020-12-03

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2020-12-03

Stimulus talks continue but the goalposts have indeed been moved; the good news is that a package before year-end is looking more likely; optimism regarding stimulus continues to buoy US yields. ISM services PMI is expected at 55.8 vs. 56.6 in October; weekly jobless claims data will be reported; Fed Beige Book report was suitably downbeat.

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Tesla Isn’t A Car Company

2020-12-03

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2020-12-03

We have the luxury, the honor, of speaking to a lot of individual investors here at Alhambra. Whether they are clients or future clients (optimism is my default condition), the most common view of stocks is that they are overvalued and a fall – a large fall – is inevitable. And there is no stock that embodies that view more than Elon Musk’s Tesla Incorporated. It was once known as Tesla Motors but Musk changed the name in early 2017. There may...

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2021 is Already Optimized for Failure

2020-12-01

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2020-12-01

One sure way to identify a system "optimized for failure" is if all the insiders are absolutely confident the system is "optimized for my success". I often discuss optimization here because it offers an insightful window into how systems become fragile and break down.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-11-30

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2020-11-30

Dollar weakness has resumed. This will be a very important data week for the US and the highlight will be November jobs data Friday; we will also get some important manufacturing readings for November; the Fed releases its Beige Book report for the December FOMC meeting Wednesday; Canada also has a busy week.

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Just Who Is, And Who Is Not, Selling T-Bills

2020-11-29

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2020-11-29

Are foreigners selling Treasury bills? If they are, this would seem to merit consideration for the reflation argument. After all, the paramount monetary deficiency exposed by March’s GFC2 (and the Fed’s blatant role in making it worse) was the dangerous degree of shortage over the best collateral.

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Treasury Auctions Are Anything But Sorry Because They’ve Never Been Sorry About Solly

2020-11-28

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2020-11-28

US TIC, 2010-2020
Twenty years ago, in November 2000, the Treasury Department changed one aspect of the way the government would sell its own debt. Auctions of these and other kinds of securities had been ongoing for decades, back to the twenties, and they had been transformed many times along the way. In the middle of the 1970’s Great Inflation, for example, Treasury gradually phased out all other means for issuing securities, by 1977 relying exclusively on...

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Care after covid: the future of elderly health-care | The Economist

2020-11-27

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Across the rich world around half of covid-19 deaths have been in care homes. Countries need to radically rethink how they care for their elderly—and some innovative solutions are on offer. Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.st/3m212Kj Read our special report on the challenges of caring for an ageing population: https://econ.st/2UW40EB Why we need to urgently reform our elderly care systems:...

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A Dimly Lit Thanksgiving

2020-11-27

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2020-11-27

Our overweening faith and confidence in our wealth and power make this a dimly lit Thanksgiving. A public expression of gratitude by victorious sports stars, lottery winners, etc. is now the convention in America: coaches, teammates, family and mentors (or agents) are recognized as an expression of the winners' humility and gratitude for everyone that contributed to the success.

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In The World Change Process

2020-11-26

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The world is in the process of change. Especially in terms of health and economy, the world has experienced the biggest chaos of recent times. We are seeing signs of transition to the new economic order. What are the plans?

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Making Sense Eurodollar University Episode 32 Part 3

2020-11-26

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The Chinese currency is gaining against the dollar. That SHOULD be an 'all-clear' signal that reflation, global trade, and positive momentum are in place. But we DO NOT see corroborating evidence on the People's Bank of China balance sheet. Maybe the move is an engineered feint?

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Dollar Weakness Resumes as Short-Covering Fades

2020-11-25

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2020-11-25

Cross-Market Implied Vol, 2020
Sentiment is being buoyed by two incrementally positive stories; cross-markets implied volatility measures continue to trend lower; dollar weakness has resumed. President-elect Biden will reportedly officially name his first cabinet picks today; Fed manufacturing surveys for November will continue to roll out; Brazil and Mexico both reports mid-November inflation readings.

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Dollar Weakness Resumes as Markets Start Another Week in Risk-On Mode

2020-11-25

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2020-11-25

Europe and UK PMIs, 2018-2020
Covid vaccine results from AstraZeneca and Oxford University brought another wave of optimism; dollar weakness has resumed; that said, we will refrain from making any longer-term calls for the demise of the dollar. Reports suggest President-elect Biden is pushing House Democrats to reduce the size of their fiscal package demands to unlock negotiations; Republicans have an interest in compromising.

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Our Frustrations Run Far Deeper Than Covid Lockdowns

2020-11-25

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2020-11-25

The reality is the roulette wheel is rigged and only chumps believe it's a fair game. It's easy to lay America's visible frustrations at the feet of Covid lockdowns or political polarization, but this conveniently ignores the real driver: systemic unfairness.

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Why I’m Hopeful About 2021

2020-11-24

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2020-11-24

What we need is not a return to the corrupt, tottering kleptocracy of 2019, but a re-democratization of capital, agency and money. I'm hopeful about 2021, and no, it's not because of the vaccines or the end of lockdowns or anything related to Covid. The status quo is cheering the fantasy that we'll soon return to the debt-soaked glory days of 2019 when everything was peachy.

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