Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

Inflation Hysteria #2 (Slack-edotes)

2020-12-13

by

2020-12-13

Macroeconomic slack is such an easy, intuitive concept that only Economists and central bankers (same thing) could possibly mess it up. But mess it up they have. Spending years talking about a labor shortage, and getting the financial media to report this as fact, those at the Federal Reserve, in particular, pointed to this as proof QE and ZIRP had fulfilled the monetary policy mandates – both of them.

Read More »

Lyn Alden & Jeff Snider: US economy, Eurodollar System, Dollar, Digital Currency, Gold (RCS EP 94)

2020-12-12

by

Interview original date: September 11th, 2020

Read More »

Inflation Hysteria #2 (WTI)

2020-12-12

by

2020-12-12

Sticking with our recent theme, a big part of what Inflation Hysteria #1 (2017-18) also had going for it was loosened restrictions for US oil producers. Seriously.

Read More »

Ep 127- Jeffrey Snider “How Do Swap Lines Work?”

2020-12-11

by

Jeff Snider is the Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments, and here he explains how ridiculous the swap line system is. Swap lines don't work like how most people think they work.

Read More »

Dollar Rally Running Out of Steam Ahead of ECB Decision

2020-12-10

by

2020-12-10

Stimulus talks drag on; US November CPI will be today’s data highlight; US Treasury wraps up a big week of auctions today with $24 bln of 30-year bonds on offer. The November budget statement will hold some interest; weekly jobless claims will be closely watched;

Read More »

How to restore trust in politics | The Economist

2020-12-09

by

In America, Britain and other Western countries, voters have lost trust in politics. Is the answer to reboot an ancient idea? Read more here: https://econ.st/3ov9kvo Sign up to our weekly newsletter: https://econ.st/37NpM3E Can citizens assemblies save democracy?: https://econ.st/37zAtXf Can ordinary people solve the political deadlock?: https://econ.st/3qsTTps How can we bring polarised societies together? https://econ.st/3qp5k1v How...

Read More »

Inflation Hysteria #2 (Nominal UST)

2020-12-09

by

2020-12-09

UST Yield Curve, 2017-2018
What had given Inflation Hysteria #1 its real punch had been the benchmark 10-year Treasury note. Throughout 2017, despite the unemployment rate in the US, globally synchronized growth being declared around the world (and being declared as some momentously significant development), and whatever other tiny factors acceding to the narrative, longer-term Treasury rates just weren’t buying it.

Read More »

Jittery Markets Keep the Dollar Afloat (For Now)

2020-12-09

by

2020-12-09

Performance vs. Dollar, 2020
US fiscal negotiations are taking longer than expected; US Treasury auctions $56 bln of 3-year notes; we believe the Fed is watching the yield curve closely; Brazil reports November IPCA inflation; Chile kept rates on hold at 0.50% and tweaked its asset purchase program.

Read More »

People Are Now Aware Of What Will Happen

2020-12-09

by

Recently, people are more aware of what can happen. This awareness raises in economic conditions and political realities make people think. Every new choice is a new beginning for people.

Read More »

Submit Questions for Jeffrey Snider on Liberty and Finance!

2020-12-08

by

​Submit Questions for Jeffrey Snider, Chief Investment Strategist for Alhambra Investments on Liberty and Finance!

Read More »

Polar Opposite Sides of Consumer Credit End Up in the Same Place: Jobs

2020-12-08

by

2020-12-08

CPS Household Survey, 2003-2020
If anything is going to be charged off, it might be student loans. All the rage nowadays, the government, approximately half of it, is busily working out how it “should” be done and by just how much. A matter of economic stimulus, loan cancellation proponents are correct that students have burdened themselves with unprofitable college “education” investments.

Read More »

Take Advantage of These COVID Estate Planning Opportunities by the End of 2020

2020-12-07

by

2020-12-07

May you live in interesting times. Although that sounds like an ancient blessing, it’s believed to be a Chinese curse casting instability and uncertainty on the person who hears it. Blessing or curse, it’s a great description of the year we’ve just come through, and in spite of all the turmoil, there are some things you can do before the end of 2020 to take advantage of all the madness.

Read More »

A Hackers Teleology by Charles Hugh Smith

2020-12-06

by

"What every human wants is fairness, a chance to belong that offers everyone opportunities to get ahead by our own merit and a say when decisions are made. Even before the global upheavals, our system was failing—it wasn’t fair at all. Now that it’s unraveling, it’s time for a new arrangement that’s actually sustainable on our resource-depleted planet that doesn’t favor wealthy insiders. Hear it Here – https://bit.ly/hackersteleology Those...

Read More »

Some Thoughts on a Potential US Government Shutdown

2020-12-06

by

2020-12-06

The US Congress has returned from recess with a lot on its plate.  Priority must be given to passing an omnibus spending bill that prevents a government shutdown after December 11. The next round of fiscal stimulus has taken on greater urgency and may be attached to the wider spending bill.

Read More »

Don’t Really Need ‘Em, Few More Nails Anyway

2020-12-06

by

2020-12-06

Pro forma CES Private Payrolls, 2020-2021
The ISM’s Non-manufacturing PMI continued to decelerate from its high registered all the way back in July 2020. In that month, the headline index reached 58.1, the best since early 2019, and for many signaling that everything was coming up “V.”

Read More »

Dollar Stabilizes but Weakness to Resume

2020-12-05

by

2020-12-05

Performance vs. Dollar, 2020
There are new efforts to pass another round of stimulus sooner rather than later; we warn against getting too optimistic; US bond yields rose in anticipation of stimulus; Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin gave somewhat conflicting outlooks for the US.

Read More »

Charles Hugh Smith on Parallels of the Great Fire of Rome 64 AD to Today

2020-12-04

by

Charles Hugh Smith on Parallels of the Great Fire of Rome 64 AD to Today http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2020/12/03/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-parallels-of-the-great-fire-of-rome-64-ad-to-today/ Receive trading ideas weekly from Yra: https://cedarportfolio.com/yra-signup-form

Read More »

Life after Trump: what’s the future of the Republican Party? | The Economist

2020-12-04

by

Donald Trump has finally accepted that a presidential transition from his administration to Joe Biden’s should begin. We answer your questions on what the Republican Party could look like in a post-Trump world. Chapters: 00:00 Trump’s impact on the Republican Party 00:35 Party support for Trump 02:16 Trumpism after Trump 05:37 The era of “alternative facts” 06:56 The GOP in a more diverse America 08:40 The outlook for 2024 Find The Economist’s...

Read More »

There Have Actually Been Some Jobs Saved, Only In Place of Recovery

2020-12-04

by

2020-12-04

IHS Markit US Manufacturing, 2012-2020
The ISM reported a small decline in its manufacturing PMI today. The index had moved up to 59.3 for the month of October 2020 in what had been its highest since September 2018. For November, the setback was nearly two points, bringing the headline down to an estimate of 57.5.

Read More »

Dollar Plumbs New Depths With No Relief In Sight

2020-12-03

by

2020-12-03

Stimulus talks continue but the goalposts have indeed been moved; the good news is that a package before year-end is looking more likely; optimism regarding stimulus continues to buoy US yields. ISM services PMI is expected at 55.8 vs. 56.6 in October; weekly jobless claims data will be reported; Fed Beige Book report was suitably downbeat.

Read More »