Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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The Real Tantrum Should Be Over The Disturbing Lack of Celebration (higher yields)

2021-11-03

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2021-11-03

Bring on the tantrum. Forget this prevaricating, we should want and expect interest rates to get on with normalizing. It’s been a long time, verging to the insanity of a decade and a half already that keeps trending more downward through time. What’s the holdup?

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Will China Pop the Global Everything Bubble? Yes

2021-11-02

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2021-11-02

The line of dominoes that is already toppling extends around the entire global economy and financial system. Plan accordingly. That China faces structural problems is well-recognized.

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Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

2021-11-02

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2021-11-02

Alhambra CEO talks about last week’s reversal in bonds yields, if there’s a growth scare, what the yield curve is saying, plus reports on wages & salaries, core capital goods, and jobless claims.

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Bill Issuance Has Absolutely Surged, So Why *Haven’t* Yields, Reflation, And Other Good Things?

2021-11-02

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2021-11-02

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hasn’t just been busy hawking cash management bills, her department has also been filling back up with the usual stuff, too. Regular T-bills. Going back to October 14, at the same time the CMB’s have been revived, so, too, have the 4-week and 13-week (3-month). Not the 8-week, though.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Scare?

2021-11-01

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2021-11-01

A couple of weeks ago the 10 year Treasury note yield rose 16 basis points in the course of 5 trading days. That move was driven by near term inflation fears as I discussed last week. Long term inflation expectations were and are well behaved.

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Reading Jeff Snider: Why Do We Think Inflation Expectations Matter? [Ep. 139, Macropiece Theater]

2021-10-31

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Federal Reserve economist Jeremy Rudd's paper savages the use of inflation expectations in monetary econometrics. He lambasts the profession for producing "minimal direct evidence" and the "next-to-no-examination of alternatives". A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

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GDP Red Flag

2021-10-31

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2021-10-31

There were no surprises in today’s US GDP data. As expected, output sharply decelerated, modestly missing much-reduced expectations. The continuously compounded annual rate of change for Q3 2021 compared to Q2 was the tiniest bit less than 2% (1.99591%) given most recent expectations had been closer to 3%.

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See what three degrees of global warming looks like | The Economist

2021-10-30

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If global temperatures rise three degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the results would be catastrophic. It’s an entirely plausible scenario, and this film shows you what it would look like. 00:00 - What will a 3°C world look like? 00:57 - Climate change is already having devastating effects 02:58 - How climate modelling works 04:06 - Nowhere is safe from global warming 05:20 - The impact of prolonged droughts 08:24 - Rising sea levels,...

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Santa’s Revenge: Everyone Front-Running My Rally, You Get Nothing

2021-10-30

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2021-10-30

Santa is generally a jolly fellow, but that doesn't mean he doesn't take pleasure in meting our well-deserved punishment to the greedy.

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The Enormously Important Reasons To Revisit The Revisions Already Several Times Revisited

2021-10-29

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2021-10-29

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary commitment. I never set out nor imagined that a quarter century after embarking on what I thought would be a career managing portfolios, researching markets, and picking investments, I’d instead have to spend a good amount of my time in the future taking apart how raw economic data is collected, tabulated, and then disseminated.

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Short Run TIPS, LT Flat, Basically Awful Real(ity)

2021-10-28

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2021-10-28

Over the past week and a half, Treasury has rolled out the CMB’s (cash management bills; like Treasury bills, special issues not otherwise part of the regular debt rotation) one after another: $60 billion 40-day on the 19th; $60 billion 27-day on the 20th; and $40 billion 48-day just yesterday.

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What’s the future of food? | The Economist

2021-10-27

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Over one-third of greenhouse-gas emissions come from food production. For a greener future, this urgently needs to change. What’s the future of food in a more sustainable world? Our experts answer your questions. This film is supported by @Infosys - https://impact.economist.com/sustainability 00:00 - Food’s environmental impact 00:44 - Why it’s important to make food sustainable 01:34 - Will everyone have to give up meat? 02:13 - Can...

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What *Seems* Inflation Now Is Something Else Entirely

2021-10-27

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2021-10-27

This is yet another one of those crucial recent developments which should contribute much clarity about the economic situation, yet is exploited in other ways (political) adding only more to the general state of economic confusion. The shelves may be empty in a lot of places around the country, leaving anyone with the impression there just aren’t enough goods.

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1970s Inflation vs. 2020s Price Increases [Ep. 130, Macropiece Theater]

2021-10-27

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Time travel to the early 1970s where we hear the Nixon Tapes, read memorandums, and study Congressional testimony to understand what the Federal Reserve knew, and when they knew it. Turns out they didn't know "money" then and they still don't today. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

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Doing 90 MPH on Deadman’s Curve: A Few Thoughts on Risk

2021-10-26

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2021-10-26

When the wreck is recovered, witnesses will wonder why they took such heedless, foolish risks. You're in the back seat wedged between tipsy revelers, the driver is drunk and heading into Deadman's Curve at 90 miles per hour. Nobody's worried because the driver has never crashed.

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An Anti-Inflation Trio From Three Years Ago

2021-10-26

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2021-10-26

Do the similarities outweigh the differences? We better hope not. There is a lot about 2021 that is shaping up in the same way as 2018 had (with a splash of 2013 thrown in for disgust). Guaranteed inflation, interest rates have nowhere to go but up, and a certified rocking recovery restoring worldwide potential.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Inflation Scare!

2021-10-25

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2021-10-25

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial stock averages made new all time highs last week as bonds sold off, the 10 year Treasury note yield briefly breaking above 1.7% before a pretty good sized rally Friday brought the yield back to 1.65%. And thus we’re right back where we were at the end of March when the 10 year yield hit its high for the year.

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You Don’t Have To Take My Word For It About Eliminating QE

2021-10-24

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2021-10-24

You don’t have to take my word for it. QE doesn’t work and it never has. That’s not just my assessment, pull out any chart of interest rates for wherever gets the misfortune of having been wasted with one of these LSAP’s.

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The hidden cost of black hair | The Economist

2021-10-23

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Hair is an important part of black women’s identity, but throughout history it has also been a target of oppression. What is the true cost of having black hair? 00:00 - What does your hair mean to you? 01:17 - Current attitudes towards textured hair 02:37 - How has black hair been viewed historically? 05:12 - Adhering to white expectations 06:14 - Why is black hair so expensive? 07:30 - The economics of the black hair care industry 09:16 - The...

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America Is Now a Kleptocrapocracy

2021-10-23

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2021-10-23

I hope everyone here is hungry because the banquet of consequences is being served. I've coined a new portmanteau word to describe America's descent: kleptocrapocracy, a union of kleptocracy (a nation ruled by kleptocrats) and crapocracy, a nation drowning in a moral sewer of rampant self-interest in which the focus is cloaking all the skims, scams, rackets and bezzles in some virtuous-sounding garb, a nation choking on low-quality junk ceaselessly...

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