Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Why the Housing Bubble Bust Is Baked In

2022-07-01

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2022-07-01

Putting this all together, it's clear that the source of the current housing bubble is the explosion of financial speculation fueled by central bank policies. Those benefiting from speculative bubbles have powerful incentives to deny the bubble can bust.

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Eurodollar Futures Interpretation Is Everywhere

2022-07-01

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2022-07-01

Consumer confidence in Germany never really picked up all that much last year. Conflating CPIs with economic condition, this divergence proved too big of a mystery. When the German GfK, for example, perked up only a tiny bit around September and October 2021, the color of consumer prices clouded judgement and interpretation of what had always been a damning situation.

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How China crushed Hong Kong

2022-06-30

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In 1997 China promised to protect Hong Kong's freedoms for the next five decades—but just 25 years after the handover, Hong Kong is now a police state. So how did China crush Hong Kong? 00:00 - How China crushed Hong Kong 00:44 - Tiananmen square massacre vigil banned 02:37 - China’s ambition since 1842: reclaim Hong Kong 04:16 - How China needed Hong Kong’s booming business 05:30 - President Xi’s aim to crush Hong Kong 07:30 - How China...

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It’s Inventory PLUS Demand

2022-06-30

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2022-06-30

It’s not just the flood of never-ending inventory. That’s a huge and growing problem, sure, as the chickens of last year’s short-termism overordering finally come home to their retailer roost. Being stuck with too many goods isn’t necessarily fatal to the global and domestic manufacturing sectors.

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Letting Retirees Save for Healthcare Tax-Free

2022-06-29

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2022-06-29

Health Savings Accounts (HSA) for retired folks. Isn’t that a novel idea? But it’s being considered in Congress—The Health Savings for Seniors Act, H.R. 3796.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Expand Your Horizons

2022-06-29

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2022-06-29

Late last year I wrote a weekly update that focused on the speculative nature of the markets. In that article, I focused on the S&P 500 because I wanted to make a point, namely that owning the S&P 500 did not absolve investment advisers of their fiduciary duty.

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The Biggest Risk, No Surprise, Collateral

2022-06-28

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2022-06-28

It’s not just the 4-week T-bill rate which is defying the Fed’s illusion of control, though that’s where the incidents are most evident. The front bill is nowhere close to the official RRP “floor” which can only mean one thing: collateral shortage, a large and persistent liquidity premium.

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The Age of Discord

2022-06-28

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2022-06-28

It's very difficult to find common ground that supports cooperation in the disintegrative stage of scarcities, rising prices, catastrophically centralized power and social discord. Today's topic echoes Peter Turchin's 2016 book, Ages of Discord, which I have often referenced in blog posts.

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Nasty Number Five, Not Hawk Hiking CBs

2022-06-27

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2022-06-27

It’s not recession fears, those are in the past. For much if not most (vast majority) of mainstream pundits and newsmedia alike, unlike regular folks this is all news to them (the irony, huh?) Economists and central bankers everywhere had said last year was a boom, a true inflationary inferno raging worldwide.

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The Everything Data’s (Z1) Verdict: Not Inflation, Only More Of The Same

2022-06-26

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2022-06-26

The only thing that changed was the CPI. What distinguishes 2021-22 from the prior post-crisis period 2007-20 is merely the performance of whatever consumer price index. This latter has been called inflation, yet the data conclusively support the market verdict pricing how it never was.What data?

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G7 summit: Germany gears up for 48th G7 meeting | Ukraine-Russia war to dominate talks | WION

2022-06-26

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The stage is set in Germany for the 48th G7 Summit. World leaders have started arriving and like most high-stakes meetings, Russia-Ukraine War going to dominate the talks. US President Joe Biden has reached Germany. Watch this report by Siddhant Sibbal from G7 media centre, Garmisch, Germany. #g7summit #ukrainerussiawar #WION About Channel: WION -The World is One News, examines global issues with in-depth analysis. We provide much more than the...

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World at War | Episode 8: Russia captures Severodonetsk from Ukraine

2022-06-25

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World at War | Episode 8: Russia captures Severodonetsk from Ukraine Moscow deploys missiles in the Arctic for world domination Taiwanese student Joseph Wen releases maps of Chinese PLA's military assets Why is Tanzania evicting thousands of Maasai people from Ngorongoro? & Islamic State Khorasan attacks gurudwara in Kabul Mohammed Saleh gets you an indepth report on the world's biggest conflict zones of the week in World At War #WorldAtWar...

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Our No-Win "Kobayashi Maru" Economy

2022-06-25

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2022-06-25

It's time to reprogram the conditions of the economy to serve the many rather than the few.Star Trek's Kobayashi Maru training exercise tests officer candidates' response to a no-win scenario:any attempt to rescue the crippled ship's crew results in the destruction of the candidate's ship, while standing by and taking no action results in the loss of the Kobayashi Maru's crew.

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Market Pulse: Mid-Year Update

2022-06-24

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2022-06-24

Note: This update is longer than usual but I felt a comprehensive review was necessary. The Federal Reserve panicked last week and spooked investors into the worst week for stocks since the onset of COVID in March 2020. The S&P 500 is now firmly in bear market territory but that is a fraction of the pain in stocks and other risky assets.

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How gene editing could reduce the cost of cosmetics

2022-06-23

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The cosmetics business has exploited natural resources for centuries. With consumers now demanding more sustainable products, gene-editing technology could give the industry a makeover—and make cosmetics cheaper. 00:00 - Could gene editing make cosmetics more sustainable? 01:01 - Hunting sharks for skincare 02:58 - How does synthetic biology work? 05:39 - What is the environmental cost of plant-based cosmetics? 07:45 - Can engineered microbes...

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Everything Hitting The Global (eurodollar) Wall

2022-06-23

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2022-06-23

Over the weekend, Bitcoin tumbled again. Reaching an ultra-ugly low of $17,641 (before retracing back above $20k), even the self-styled premier digital “store of value” has thrown in the towel. As I wrote last week, winter isn’t coming it is here.

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The Difference Between a Forecast and a Guess

2022-06-22

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2022-06-22

Every forecast or guess has one refreshing quality: one will be right and the rest will be wrong. What's the difference between a forecast and a guess? On one level, the answer is "none": the future is unknown and even the most informed forecast is still a guess.

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Angry April TIC Zeroed In On China’s CNY and Japan’s JPY

2022-06-21

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2022-06-21

If the March gasoline/oil spike hit a weak global economy really hard and caused what more and more looks like a recessionary shock, a(n un)healthy part of it was the acceleration of Euro$ #5 concurrently rippling through the global reserve system.

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Sorry Chairman Powell, Even FRBNY Now Has To Forecast Serious and Seriously Rising Recession Risk

2022-06-20

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2022-06-20

At his last press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell made a bunch of unsubstantiated claims, none of which were called out or even questioned by the assembled reporters. These rituals are designed to project authority not conduct inquiry, and this one was perhaps the best representation of that intent. Powell’s job is to put the current predicament in the best possible light, starting by downplaying the current predicament.

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ReSolve Riffs: Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski of Eurodollar University on Inflationary Market Signals

2022-06-18

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